The Note: The Head of a Dead Horse
— -- The Inauguration is tomorrow
NEWS SUMMARY
Numbing violence in Iraq; more inaugural festivities; babyish reporters complain about the cold; Ken Mehlman is coronated as RNC chair; Howard Dean gets more support for DNC chair as his opponents spend more time hand wringing than finding a viable alternative; the DNC has a phony ad/video press release that is anti-Bush and which we shouldn't even mention; Jessica Kranish returns (!!!); Lautenberg comes out for Corzine; exit poll data gets released; and, most of all, The Chairman's words echo and bounce.
Profoundly, the Washington Post's Mike Allen and Jonathan Weisman report that the President seemingly has a new dissenter over his Social Security plan: House Ways and Means Chairman Bill Thomas (R-CA), who said Tuesday that the partisan fight about overhauling the entitlement program would render Bush's plan "a dead horse." LINK
"Thomas, one of Capitol Hill's most powerful figures on tax policy, is the highest-ranking House Republican official to cast doubt on the president's plan for creating individual investment accounts. He said that as an alternative, he will consider changes such as replacing the payroll tax as Social Security's financing mechanism and adding a savings plan for long-term or chronic care as 'an augmentation to Social Security payments.'"
". . . The mercurial Thomas, whose chairmanship of the tax-writing committee allows him to heavily influence the fate of Bush's domestic agenda, also said he wants to consider revisions to the tax code simultaneously with debate over Bush's private-account proposal. The White House had indicated a preference to put off revisions to the tax code until next year."
Many other papers cover the same ground, but not as prominently or breathlessly as the Post.
Not to be outdone, Rep. Jim McCrery (R-LA) makes his own bid for LaHood-dom in an interview with USA Today, in which he says higher taxes and lower benefits could end up part of legislation that overhauls Social Security and allows workers to invest part of their Social Security tax into personal accounts. But the President has to take the lead, he says. LINK
"McCrery said he would keep an open mind on major elements of the bill. He wants to keep negotiations open with Democrats and groups such as AARP, the nation's largest seniors' lobby, that are lining up against private accounts. Although Bush has said no increase in payroll taxes is one of his principles, McCrery said he is not taking a similar position."
"McCrery said the final bill could include more revenue, perhaps by raising the amount of income subject to payroll taxes. He also said it could include reductions in future benefits."
"He acknowledged that creating personal accounts with part of Social Security's payroll taxes is 'probably not' sufficient to solve the system's future shortfall. A complete plan, he said, 'probably is going to need a combination' of personal investment accounts, increases in revenue and changes in future benefits."
Maybe this is all part of some White House grand legislative strategy to get to the right place in the end. But the trajectories proposed by Reps. Thomas and McCrery do not seem likely to get the deed done in five months.
Today:
At 9:00 am ET, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee continues its hearing to confirm Condoleezza Rice as Secretary of State.
At 9:30 am ET, the full Senate Judiciary Committee meets to mark up legislation and vote on nominations.
At 11:30 am ET, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, Rep. Steny Hoyer, and Sens. Reid and Stabenow, among others, meet to discuss Social Security. (Note quiz: will Democrats ever get their act together on whether to have a plan or not?)
At 2:00 pm ET, the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee holds its hearing on the nomination of Michael Leavitt to be Secretary of Health and Human Services.
At 2:30 pm ET, the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee holds its hearing on the nomination of Samuel Bodman to be Energy Secretary.
At this morning's general session (9:30 am to noon ET) at the RNC winter meeting, outgoing chairman Ed Gillespie and co-chairman Ann Wagner will speak, and the new chairman and co-chairman will be elected. From noon to 1:15 pm ET, there's a luncheon with new chairman Ken Mehlman.
At 7:30 am ET, Tom Donohue, president and CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, spoke at the Mayors' Conference breakfast. At the 9:30 am ET plenary session, outgoing Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge, Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH), Henry Heimlich, president of the Heimlich Institute; Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH); Chicago Mayor Richard Daley and Housing and Urban Affairs Secretary Alphonso Jackson speak. At noon ET, Senate Minority Leader Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and Transportation Secretary Norman Mineta deliver remarks at a closing luncheon.
In terms of inaugural events:
The Chairman's Brunch begins at the Mellon Auditorium at 10:30 am ET.
At 5:00 pm ET, President and First Lady Laura Bush participate in "A Celebration of Freedom" event on the Ellipse. They attend the first Candlelight Dinner at Union Station at 8:05 pm ET, the second Candlelight Dinner at the National Building Museum at 8:35 pm ET, and the third Candlelight Dinner at the Washington Hilton at 9:10 pm ET. Then the First Couple heads to the Black Tie & Boots ball at 10:00 pm ET.
The Labor Department reported this morning that the drop in the number of workers filing for first-time unemployment benefits dropped was the biggest in more than three years last week -- by 48,000 to 319,000.
Social Security:
The New York Times' Edmund Andrews Notes that Thomas' ideas are but one of many in the GOP constellation. LINK
The Los Angeles Times' Joel Havemann and Richard Simon Note that Thomas listed his own priorities, including Medicare, the payroll tax and Social Security benefits for women. LINK
Dick Morris dooms and glooms his way to the conclusion that most second terms are destined to failure but President Bush is off to a good start . . . and he'll do even better if he just listens to Dick Morris's ideas on Social Security. LINK
The inauguration:
ABC News' Karen Travers reports that if you're eager to hear the "detailed blueprint" of President Bush's second-term agenda (and who isn't?), you'll have to wait until the State of the Union, because the inaugural address on Thursday will be a "broader thematic speech, that really outlines the principles and philosophy that guide the agenda that the President is pursuing," in the words of White House press secretary Scott McClellan.
President Bush spent an hour on Monday working on his inaugural speech in the family theater, McClellan said.
The inaugural address has been a work in progress since the week after the election, when the President met with chief speechwriter Michael Gerson and message guru Dan Bartlett to lay out its themes.
President Bush spent time over the holidays working on the outline he got before leaving for the ranch in Crawford. He received his first draft on Jan. 7 -- as of Tuesday, it was up to Draft #14 and runs about 17 minutes.
McClellan said yesterday that the President will talk about the philosophy and principles and ideals and values of America -- self-governance, human rights, advancing freedom -- and look at the opportunities that today's challenges bring to achieve peace abroad and security at home.
The New York Times on the inaugural security net. LINK
The (non-inauguration-related) security scare yesterday: LINK
In the Wall Street Journal, pop historian Michael Barone previews tomorrow's speech:
"George W. Bush has been criticized for his religious references. But he has only been following tradition. Every Second Inaugural since Washington's brief statement has included some reference to God, from Jefferson's 'that Being,' Madison's 'Heaven' and Monroe's 'Supreme Author of All Good' to Reagan's 'God bless you' and Clinton's 'May God strengthen our hands for the good work ahead -- and always, always bless our America.' Four years ago Mr. Bush referred, in Founder's language, to the 'author' of 'our nation's grand story.' Expect something similar from him tomorrow."
The Washington Post's Timothy Dwyer wraps the beginning of the inauguration festivities, including the ruling by a U.S. District Judge denying one protest group's petition for more access to the President's parade route. LINK
The Los Angeles Times' Ed Chen leads with President Bush telling the military at yesterday's event honoring them that much more will be asked of them in the long haul of the war on terror. LINK
Still have questions about the inauguration? ABCNEWS.com has all the answers. LINK
Bush agenda:
The new Los Angeles Times poll shows an American public deeply divided over President Bush's policies and performance, Ron Brownstein writes -- supportive of his work in the war on terror and his idea to overhaul the tax code, but wary of his plan to restructure Social Security, discontent with the way the war in Iraq is going, and feeling that there's not a need to make the tax cuts permanent. On the eve of his second inauguration, Bush's approval rating stands at 50 percent in the Times survey. On his Iraq policy, 42 percent said they approve, and 54 percent say Bush is doing well on terrorism. LINK
"On almost every major question, the Times poll shows that Bush faces a country fractured along the same ideological and partisan lines that have defined virtually his entire presidency."
"Amid those enduring divisions, an overwhelming majority of Americans believes Washington is unlikely to make much progress on the country's key problems. Such pessimism is one of the few points on which most Republicans and Democrats agree, the survey found."
Doyle McManus divines what poll respondents said about Iraq -- support for the war is slipping, but a belief that the Bush Administration should be given a chance to stabilize the situation before withdrawing troops remains. The survey, conducted Saturday through Monday, shows 39 percent of Americans say Iraq was "worth going to war over," and 52 percent said the Administration should abide by what the new Iraqi government wants. LINK
Attitudes remained skeptical at best on whether American forces or insurgents have more control over the situation, and whether or not the elections on Sunday will have any effect on the situation.
The Washington Post's Jim VandeHei and Michael Fletcher report that social conservatives unhappy with the President's recent comments that he wouldn't push the Senate hard for a constitutional amendment outlawing same-sex marriage are making themselves heard with protest calls to the White House. LINK
Robert Pear covered HHS Secretary-designate Mike Leavitt's confirmation hearing and Noted his emphasis on giving states more flexibility about Medicare. LINK
Mayors to Bush: please don't cut block grants! LINK
DNC chair's race:
We don't really know whether the growing support for Dean from some state leaders LINK is simply a crack in ASDC discipline or the beginning of the end for everyone who is not Dean.
For Howard Dean, next up are more Southern endorsements and perhaps a large swath of delegates from the state of California. Watch for some DNC members with union connections to follow suit.
Opponents of Dean think he has between 100 and 120 solid commitments -- perhaps about 30 to 35 percent of the total vote. The consensus among some advisers to Dean and some other opponents is that Rep. Martin Frost has about 50-60 commitments, or at most about 15 to 20 percent of the total vote.
Plugged in Democrats who communicate regularly with party pooh-bahs and DNC members believe that no anti-Dean movement (there are several) has picked up enough steam to stop the former Vermont governor.
But there are three and a half weeks to go and several hundred DNC members who have not chosen Dean.
We said in November of 2003 that it was hard to conceive of a way in which Dean could lose the Democratic nomination unless an unlikely confluence of external events came together and voters began to distrust that the fundamental strength of Dean's candidacy -- his anti-war passion -- would translate into general election success and a credible presidency.
Well . . . in this case, the voting pool is different and the storm clouds above the party have a silver lining for Dean and not the other way around.
Enough DNC members could decide to support someone else, and some external event could suddenly refocus the attention on another candidate. But as more and more un-Dean-like DNC members, such as, oh, Southern state delegations and party chairs, support Mr. Dean, the more unlikely any Stop Dean scenario is going to be.
The biggest (and smartest) concerns we hear about a Dean chairmanship:
--He can draw crowds in Atlanta, but would any candidate in Macon want to be seen with him? Will he push Southern candidates to run even further from the party than they do now?
--Will Dean be able to cover his own mouth and not originate a message? Does he have the self-discipline to be chair and let others talk ideology? As a polarizing former presidential candidate, he is a message originator . . . not a message deliverer.
--His most recent large-scale political operation was his nomination campaign; it was not well-managed. Has Dean learned his lesson?
-- How annoyed will he make the party's congressional wing when he fails to listen to them at meetings?
At last night's Democratic mayor forum (Newsom, Kilpatrick, Baines and others were there) , Wellington Webb played the mayor card, Dean trumpeted his personal relations with many of them, Frost emphasized his success in red states, Simon Rosenberg was competent as usual, and Donnie Fowler emphasized his experience running campaigns across the country.
By the way: has Tim Roemer caught fire with anyone?
The AP's Will Lester on Dean's "streaking" momentum. LINK
Bush Cabinet: Condoleezza Rice:
The Washington Post's Glenn Kessler wraps the first day of Condoleezza Rice's confirmation hearings, Noting her "internationalist" tone, focus on rebuilding alliances, and declaring that "the time for diplomacy is now." Not to mention the tough questioning and the firecrackers provided by Sen. Boxer. LINK
The Los Angeles Times' Faye Fiore looks at the polar opposites represented by California's two Senators in yesterday's hearing. LINK
The Los Angeles Times: LINK
The Boston Globe: LINK
USA Today: LINK
Bush Cabinet: Alberto Gonzales:
The Washington Post's Dan Eggen and Chuck Babington pored over more than 200 pages of White House Counsel Alberto Gonzales' written answers to questions from the Senate Judiciary, and Note that Gonzales would not get specific on the interrogation techniques acceptable by the U.S., and repeated his assertion that though the President has declared that torture is not ever acceptable, theoretically a president could decide that a law is unconstitutional. LINK
Dems regroup:
And while President Bush's day begins rapidly filling up with inauguration activities, the Democratic National Committee goes on cable today with an ad entitled "Ready" welcoming him into a second term with the kind of "we'll be watching" sentiment befitting Wisteria Lane -- or Sen. Kennedy's opening statement at most confirmation hearings. The "modest buy" appears only today on CNN, FOX, and MSNBC.
Under protest, we publish for fun the script here:
Mr. President, congratulations.
Democrats are eager to work with you.
But make no mistake -- we will not abandon our long held principles.
On Social Security, we will not let you undermine its fundamental guarantee.
On taxes, we'll fight your efforts to shift the burden to working families.
And we'll demand an honest foreign policy.
So as you swear to uphold the Constitution, we will be standing with you -- making sure you keep that promise for all Americans.
Voice over: The DNC is responsible for the content of this advertising.
But fake ads and promises don't equal an agenda. The Chicago Tribune's Jill Zuckman looks at the internal frustrations and tug-of-wars taking place for a direction and agenda -- if not the heart and soul -- of the Democratic Party. LINK
"Still shellshocked from November's election results, many Democrats say their party must move to the middle, and others believe Democrats must stand for more than watered-down Republican ideals."
"Some of the debate may be resolved by the race for party chairman, with former Vermont governor and presidential hopeful Howard Dean attracting both strong support and fierce opposition. Meanwhile, many Democrats are concerned they are losing valuable time."
The New York Observer's Ben Smith on the Washingtonalization of New York political consultants and the retirements of Joe Trippi and Bob Shrum. LINK
John Kerry, Senator:
We like Sheryl Gay Stolberg's lead: "Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts reported for duty on Tuesday, making his 2005 Capitol debut with a reprise of his 2004 presidential campaign: pointed criticism of the way his former opponent, President Bush, is handling the war in Iraq and the proliferation of nuclear weapons." LINK
Read the last sentence of this Page Six item to find out what (some) gals think of Kerry: LINK
Washington governor's race:
Chris McGann of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports that Washington state Republicans offered specific allegations of voter fraud and election irregularities in Chelan County Superior Court yesterday, looking to boost their chances of speeding up the discovery phase of their challenge to Gov. Christine Gregoire's election. LINK
2005:
Christi Parsons of Chicago Tribune on voter registration privacy issues resulting from a measure signed into law yesterday. LINK
2006:
RFK Jr. will decide in two weeks whether to run for New York attorney general in 2006.LINK
USA Today's Martha Moore rubs her hands together like a New York political reporter over the prospect of a Kennedy v. Cuomo faceoff for New York AG. LINK
Those hedge funds just love Eliot Spitzer . . . LINK
2008:
The Chicago Tribune's Jeff Zeleny ruminates on how the 2008 field -- and how its members align or separate from President Bush in his second term -- could determine Republicans' future. And how long has it been since you've seen a quote from Dante Scala?! LINK
Politics:
Cindy Adams is not -- to say the least -- happy with Karl Rove's no-show at the CORE dinner on Monday night. LINK
Ah, to be back on campus again . . . LINK
Gov. Bush of Florida is looking for a new speechwriter. LINK