The Note: First Among Equals

— -- NEWS SUMMARY

To paraphrase (again) a former New York governor: You campaign in poetry; you govern in prose; and you do political analysis in math.

Those metrics that threaten to drive Ken Mehlman crazy (but, in fact, keep him sane) are the only way to figure out what is going on for the next week.

And the best way to think of the numbers is with the classic "greater than," "less than," "equal to" comparisons that you all remember from your home schooling.

So print out today's Note -- or locate the >,<, and = signs on your keyboard -- and see how you do on today's regular Friday Note Quiz.

(Anwers in Monday's edition.)

FRIDAY NOTE QUIZ

In each pair, is the first item greater than, less than, or equal to the second?

Coverage of Iraqi elections from Sunday-Tuesday as a positive story ____________ Coverage of Iraqi elections from Sunday-Tuesday as a negative story

Amount of time White House has spent gaming out how to shape the coverage ____________ Amount of time the networks have spent planning the coverage

Number of new DNC votes Howard Dean will claim by midnight Tuesday _______________ Number of new DNC votes all other candidates will claim by midnight Tuesday

Tension level between the DNC and the Michigan Democratic Party ____________ Tension level between the DNC and the Iowa Democratic Party

The number of times the President was non-responsive in his New York Times interview ________ The number of times the President laughed in his New York Times interview

The amount of time Pat Healy has spent thinking about Hillary Clinton's position on abortion this week ___________ The amount of time Hillary Clinton has spent thinking about Hillary Clinton's position on abortion this week

The amount of time Robin Givhan's has spent thinking about Dick Cheney's clothes this week ___________ The amount of time Dick Cheney has spent thinking about Dick Cheney's clothes this week

The out of country voting in the Iraqi elections has begun. Remember: the results from Sunday's full voting won't be known for days -- probably weeks.

President Bush watches as Condoleezza Rice is sworn in as Secretary of State today in Washington. He then travels to the Greenbrier resort in West Virginia where Republican members of Congress are holding a weekend retreat. The President speaks at 12:20 pm ET.

To recap the DNC schedule this weekend: the women's caucus meets with chair candidates today. The final regional forum takes place tomorrow. And the Association of State Democratic Party chairs meets with all the candidates sans Roemer on Sunday. There also various high-carb candidate breakfasts and parties. All events are in midtown Manhattan.

A funeral service for Boston Globe writer David Nyhan will be held in Brookline, MA at 10:00 am ET. LINK

Tonight, Cindy McCain will appear on "Larry King Live" tonight talking about stroke prevention and recovery at 9:00 pm ET.

Today, the American Trial Lawyers Association will announce that Jon Haber, a familiar name to Note readers from his years of political and campaign work, will become its new CEO, replacing Tom Henderson. Haber will meet and greet ATLA royalty as the trial lawyers kick off their winter convention in Palm Springs.

Sunday, on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, the latest breaking news on the Iraqi elections, Peter Jennings from Baghdad, Sen. Evan Bayh, and much more.

John Kerry appears on "Meet," during which he will get a lot more questions about the state of the Democratic Party than he is expecting.

Bush agenda: New York Times interview:

In his (finally!) interview with the New York Times, President Bush said "he would withdraw American forces from Iraq if the new government that is elected on Sunday asked him to do so, but that he expected Iraq's first democratically elected leaders would want the troops to remain as helpers, not as occupiers." LINK

He did acknowledge though that the U.S. is currently viewed as occupiers in Iraq, but he stopped short of endorsing the view that the sheer size of the American presence in Iraq was worsening the violence by presenting insurgents with a large target.

More: "Mr. Bush sidestepped a question on whether he agreed with a Florida law barring gay men and women from adopting children, saying he was not aware of it. But he said that while 'children can receive love from gay couples,' he believed that 'studies have shown that the ideal is where a child is raised in a married family with a man and a woman.'"

"He brushed aside questions about his relationship with the Congressional Black Caucus, which he met with on Wednesday and invited to the White House once in his first term. Asked why the group, now composed of 43 Democratic African-American members of Congress, had received only the single first-term invitation, he responded: 'That's just the way it worked out.' He said he was working 'to put out policies that I think are beneficial to all people, including African Americans, and will continue to do so.'"

The interview is a good/must read, but the closest thing to news in it is when the President ignores Scott's interruption (since that ordinarily doesn't happen, to our knowledge).

Bush agenda: at home and abroad:

Folks, we've said once, and we'll say it again and again. People read and trust their local newspapers and watch and trust local television.

Straight news articles like the Cleveland Plain Dealer's coverage of the President's trip to the Buckeye State yesterday is one of the reasons why the White House is convinced in can sell its agenda by taking it directly to the people. LINK

The Washington Post's Mike Allen paints the meeting today between President Bush and Republican lawmakers in West Virginia as the President having to court his own party and selling his agenda -- and having a more difficult time now that the party isn't united behind his reelection any more, but a collection of individuals concerned with their own reelections and accomplishments and the party rather than his plans. LINK

"'It's the "no interest like self-interest" rule, and it's every man for himself,' said an aide to a Senate Republican committee chairman, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to maintain good relations with the White House. 'He's discovering the fine line between having a mandate and being a lame duck.'"

And Allen says that Karl Rove focused his remarks on Social Security. A must-read.

From ABC News' Jessica Yellin: "Mike McManus is founding partner of Marriage Savers and also a syndicated columnist. He received grant money from the Administration of Children and Families (which is within HHS) to promote their marriage initiative. ACF acknowledges that McManus received this money -- as a subcontractor for the Lewin Group. And they acknowledge he was also a syndicated columnist. Wade Horn, the head of ACF, was a founding board member of Marriage Savers (McManus' group) until his government appointment. The McManus' phone has been disconnected. Wade Horn sent out a statement to ACF employees late today informing them of a new policy prohibiting the agency from using journalists or columnists as consultants or contractors."

The Los Angeles Times and USA Today also have the story. LINK and LINK

Sadly for Sen. Kerry, this article describing his speech on health care yesterday belongs in this section because, well, President Bush sets the health care agenda. But the Senator certainly must appreciate how the New York Times did its comparison. LINK

Overall, Kerry got better/more coverage in the Los Angeles Times and Washington Post than he did in the Boston Globe.

The CBO has new suggestions on how to reduce the deficit. LINK

Washington Wire says President Bush will push tort reform in SOTU. "The agenda Bush will outline for lawmakers, part of his pitch to make America business-friendly, includes measures on asbestos liability, class actions and medical malpractice. Congress's 41% approval rating, down from 48% four years ago, stands well below Bush's 50%."

Iraq:

The Washington Post's Karl Vick looks at the preparations troops are making in advance of the Iraqi vote. LINK

And the Los Angeles Times' Edmund Sanders looks at the preparations ordinary citizens are making. LINK

Two New York Times correspondents report on the harrowing election preparations in Mosul. LINK

Peter Baker of the Washington Post writes up Sen. Ted Kennedy's speech yesterday laying out an exit strategy from Iraq, and saying that the presence of U.S. troops is making the conflict worse. LINK

More on Kennedy's "phased withdrawal," which includes an immediate pull-out of 10 percent of military forces, from the Los Angeles Times. LINK

And from the Boston Globe's Rick Klein. LINK

Social Security:

"President Bush's advisers have settled on a proposal for structuring the personal accounts they hope to create in Social Security, while on Capitol Hill, Senate Democrats were launching an effort to defeat the plan altogether," AP reports. But we wonder if "life cycle" accounts sound a little too new-agey for Republican sensibilities. The plan is a default in which investments become more conservative as investors age. LINK

From John Harwood and the Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire:

"RESISTANCE GROWS to Social Security changes. As Republicans balk at political risks, Democrats gain confidence in challenging the re-elected president. Democratic pollster Geoff Garin predicts Bush will founder on details as Clinton did in health-overhaul battle. Democratic tax-writer Neal, who relied on survivor benefits as a teenager, moves to Social Security subcommittee to defend them."

"In the Journal/NBC News poll, just 13% say Social Security needs "complete overhaul"; though Bush rules out a payroll-tax increase for improving solvency, 24% call it an acceptable option, dwarfing the 5% who embrace benefit cuts. Republican Rep. Linder, asserting "Social Security as a stand-alone reform is probably dead," touts replacement of income taxes with a 23% consumption levy as a solution to Social Security solvency. A senior White House official calls it "way too premature" to combine the two issues."

The Los Angeles Times' Richard Simon and Peter Wallsten report that constituents of congressional Republicans are saying they're getting anonymous robo-calls accusing lawmakers of trying to privatize, and thereby wreck, Social Security. LINK

USA Today's Andrea Stone reports that the call has gone out to people in at least 17 Republican congressional districts -- and possibly as many as 24 -- in 13 states. Constituents of Reps. Jim McCrery (R-LA) and Clay Shaw (R-FL) were particularly hard-hit. LINK

Paul Krugman castigates the Administration for "playing the race card." LINK

The cabinet confirmation votes:

The Washington Post's Charles Krauthammer calls Condoleezza Rice a "consumer -- of a highly defective product," i.e., faulty intelligence that the U.S. used to go to war in Iraq, and says the move by some Democrats to vote against her confirmation as secretary of state wasn't so smart politically. LINK

But he closes by praising the political acumen of the pro-Rice Hillary R. Clinton.

Roll Call's Emily Pierce reports that the Congressional Hispanic Caucus will not endorse Alberto Gonzales as attorney general, saying he has refused to meet with them.

The Wall Street Journal ed board warns Sen. Reid to avoid acting Daschley.

House of Labor:

Even though our beloved Gayle Tzemach has sold out to business school (KIDDING, WE'RE KIDDING), we'll be writing more about our favorite, union-made edifice in the weeks head as the AFL-CIO begins to seriously debate numerous reform proposals.

In the meantime, you'll want to read Matt Bai's latest New York Times Magazine opus, which focuses on Andy Stern's crusading efforts to remake unionism in America and the world.

Sure to get folks talking will be what Stern seems to suggest about Social Security reform, what Tom Buffenbarger says about his Lear Jet, what John Sweeney says about Andy Stern, and the I-Didn't-Know-That efforts of Stern to think about forming a global union.

Bai writes movingly about Stern's personal losses -- the death of a child and the end of his marriage -- and does a great job laying out the Stern vision and agenda.

In addition, the piece will tell you:

-- that Andy Stern agrees with Karl Rove about which national political party is the party of ideas.

-- that Andy Stern thinks Stephen Moore is a good role model.

-- that Simon Rosenberg thinks Andy is a "thought leader."

-- that Andy (circa 1978) looked GREAT in a three-piece suit.

-- that Andy once told Bai that "I actually was the most popular person in my high-school class."

-- that there is something called "Andy Stern's Chocolate Cake with Peanut-butter Frosting."

-- that Matt Bai has a boy-crush on Andy Stern!!!

The article might be a twinge more sympathetic to Stern than many in the labor movement are, and it elides over some of the very worthwhile proposals that Stern's opponents have made about labor, but it's quite a good read.

Four unions sued DHS yesterday over the Bush Administration's new personnel rules. LINK

.. As union membership once again declined as a percentage of the overall workforce. LINK

DNC chair's race:

On behalf of Rep. Martin Frost, Texas DNC chair Charles Soechting sent DNC members a defending an ad that Frost ran in his 2004 race against Rep. Pete Sessions.

Soechting says he is disappointed in Dean.

Excerpts: "The purpose of the ads -- as any Democrat who has tried to win in a Red State will immediately recognize -- was to demonstrate that Martin's GOP opponent, Pete Sessions, is a dangerous extremist well outside the mainstream, more extreme than even George W. Bush and other Republicans."

"Here in Texas, we're used to Republicans like Karl Rove and Tom DeLay using damned lies and dirty tricks to launch character attacks against tough, effective Democrats like Martin Frost. Whoever made this attack clearly has no idea what it takes to win in tough districts -- in "Red States" like Texas or anywhere else in the country."

"In fact, Martin's 2004 campaign could serve as a model for Democrats who are running in equally tough territory around the country. The campaign involved hundreds, if not thousands, of volunteers, including Democrats of all races, union members, and many of the most ardent progressives in a tough, aggressive grassroots campaign. Martin refused to back down against enormous odds - standing up to DeLay and Rove by refusing to retire when their illegal redistricting scheme forced him into a 65% GOP district."

Responded one Dean ally "It's ironic that two days after Martin Frost sent out an e-mail attacking Howard Dean, his supporters are writing their hands about receiving two ads that Martin Frost himself appeared in and approved that disparages Ted Kennedy and suggests that [Frost's] a Republican."

To be clear, our reporting in no way suggests that Howard Dean himself sanctioned or directed his supporters to produce the e-mail. It's easy to presume that both campaigns have a direct hand in the negative research, but both Dean and Frost have very savvy and very prominent supporters who have plenty of resources to do oppo work themselves.

Dean's communications director, Laura Gross, said this morning her campaign had not produced the fact sheet.

Dean today announces 14 more voting commitments from DNC members.

From Washington Wire: "Charges of coziness with Republicans mark Democratic chairman's race, from ex-Rep. Roemer's past opposition to Clinton's economic plan to ex-Rep. Frost's 2004 re-election ad touting ability to work with Bush and Hastert. As candidates prepare to court committee members Saturday in New York, some veterans fear the spectacle of chaos. 'It's supposed to be a rigged deal,' grouses ex-Clinton strategist Carville."

Mark Barabak looks at Dean's outsider quest to be an insider, and includes some interesting blind and not-so-blind quotes from former advisers. LINK

Deborah Orin on Dean and the Clintons in the New York Post. LINK

Will Lester on what to expect in terms of ASDC and AFL-CIO endorsements. LINK

And today, Gannett News Service's Chuck Raasch takes a look at the shoes (alligator-wrestled Guccis we are presuming, compared to the ancient Reeboks that Jano wears) McAuliffe is leaving behind to fill. LINK

"Defying predictions that the national Democratic Party would become a staggering dinosaur under 2002 campaign finance reform, McAuliffe instead built it into a veritable political ATM."

John Kerry:

The Washington Post's Chuck Babington gives decent remarks to Sen. Kerry's speech yesterday discussing his "Kids First" plan to provide health insurance to children. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Maura Reynolds calls the speech "combative." And we're wondering if Bruce Reed got the "premature" comment out with a straight face. LINK

The Washington Post's Jonathan Finer belatedly reports that Swift Boat veteran Jerome Corsi says he's moving to Massachusetts to challenge Sen. Kerry in his 2008 Senate bid. LINK

The state party doesn't seem all that into it.

2005:

With Richard Codey's decision not to run for a full term as governor of New Jersey, Jon Corzine smiles behind his beard.

2006:

Or maybe Westchester DA Pirro will run for NYAG . . . LINK

Will Richard Nixon's son-in-law challenge Sen. Clinton in 2006? LINK

2008:

Rudy's a star . . . a money-raising star . . . LINK

She said what now? The New York Times' Patrick Healy on Democrats and others who want Sen. Clinton clarify her stance on abortion. LINK

"In response, two of Mrs. Clinton's aides qualified her support for parental notification laws, saying she preferred an approach like New York's, which does not require minors seeking abortions to tell their parents, but does provide them with information about their medical options."

There's a lot going on still, apparently, on the head of this pin.

The Los Angeles Times on Sen. Clinton's health care speech, which dare we say, sounded traditionally Democratic. LINK

The Washington Post's E.J. Dionne previews John Edwards' New Hampshire speech next weekend with a sit-down with the former Senator, who says what Democrats need isn't moderation and wishy-washiness, but a demonstration of conviction. Dionne surmises that "Edwards is well positioned to offer Third Way 3.0." LINK

And E.J. is WAY into John Edwards' jeans. "Literally," as John Kerry would say.

Washington governor's race:

The Seattle Times' David Postman reports that Washington Secretary of State Sam Reed has sided with Republicans in contending that the challenge to Gov. Christine Gregoire's election should remain in the courts and not move to the Legislature, as Democrats have argued. The next hearing in the case will be on Feb. 4. LINK

Politics:

AP reports the resignation of Planned Parenthood president Gloria Feldt. LINK

The best line at last night's Drum Major Institute event (beyond the articulate and passionate words of Andrea Stewart-Cousins and the Pataki-esque hushed eloquence of Tom Daschle):

"You won't feel as bad for her when you learn that she broke it dancing in South Beach" -- a man after securing a comfortable standing position for his cast-wearing niece.

Media:

A loss for Big(er) Media: the Administration won't appeal a ruling that invalidated the FCC's new laws on media ownership. Remember how big this story was in 2003? LINK

(And how rarely does the Big Media lobby . . . NAB and the rest . . . lose a round?)

President Clinton:

" . . . a virtuoso performance . . . " . . . " . . . standing ovation from a rapt audience . . . " " . . . cerebral, wry and humorous . . ." "personal and emotional . . . "

It's not "Ray" . . .

It's Bill Clinton, in a speech at Davos, as described in the Los Angeles Times.

We're supposin' this reporter never heard Clinton speak before, what with his charming smile and Southern drawl and ability to leave his audience in utter rapture . . . , why we were brought back 14 years ago to 1990 when the Clinton buzz really took off. LINK

Still, everyone needs a wet kiss now and then.

And, for the record, we think Charlie Rose is every bit as charming.

From a news release:

"DAVOS, Switzerland, January 27, 2005 -- Former President Bill Clinton said today that he is organizing a major annual gathering of leaders to address global challenges, with the first meeting set to take place this fall in New York City. The inaugural Clinton Global Initiative will take place in September, coinciding with the 60th session of the United Nations General Assembly. It will bring together innovative and accomplished people from the political, business, academic and non-governmental organization (NGO) communities. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland today, President Clinton said that they are 'going to be asked to participate in very specific decisions...and then making commitments to do something about it.'"