The Note: Feeling (Anti-)Social
— -- NEWS SUMMARY
Our complete and utter cluelessness about how this whole Social Security drama will end up is mirrored by (and reflected in) a laundry list of questions that will swirl in our heads all weekend.
If you can answer any of these, consider yourself possessed of even greater wisdom than Scott McClellan, more foresight than Joe Allbaugh, and even more capacity to channel GWB than Don Evans:
Does the Administration have a bicameral legislative timetable and/or strategy in mind, or are they being "flexible" (a.k.a., making it up as they go along)?
How much private (free!!!) polling is the White House seeing on Social Security?
Where and how are the Big Business TV ads that are going to be run in support of the effort being focus grouped?
Beyond AARP, who or what will put big money behind the anti-effort?
Does today's Wall Street Journal editorial warning the Administration against a Medicare-style compromise on Social Security presage what the White House can expect from the right if it starts to seek compromise to gain Democratic votes?
What tweaks (if any) have been made in the White House strategy in the last 48 hours, based on reacting to what has happened since SOTU?
Can we stop reading those repetitive, boring, and incomplete journalistic Q&As on how private accounts would work, blah blah blah, how the system is currently funded blah blah blah, what the President is proposing, blah blah blah?
If the White House (and Hill GOPers) are still going to insist on bipartisan support to make fundamental changes in the system, what will constitute "meaningful" bipartisan support?
Are there any intra-Administration private disagreements about how to proceed now?
Are Democrats -- feeling their oats from finally scoring at least some points on the President and getting good media support for reform skepticism -- resting fat and happy or thinking about a long-term political and policy strategy to save Social Security (and try to win some races)?
Is the politically vital fight to convince those in or near retirement that their benefits would not be changed at all one the White House can win and move on from, or will it require constant battle throughout this process?
How many White House reporters know that Vice President Cheney was on Rush Limbaugh yesterday helping to sell the Social Security plan? (Don't worry, Mike, he made no news, although he did refer to America's citizens as "voters," which we wonder about . . . )
Continuing to pitch his Social Security plan, President Bush begins his day in Omaha, NE with an event at 9:30 am ET. Then he heads to Little Rock, AR, for another event at 12:50 pm ET, and wraps the day in Tampa, FL with a third event at 4:30 pm ET before heading back to Washington, DC.
At 10:00 am ET, the Club for Growth holds a news conference to discuss talk about their new TV ad campaign on Social Security at the National Press Club.
It's a nationwide, targeted ad buy focusing on Social Security, targeting specific congressional districts. The buy is small but we're told it will grow.
And Monday, Progress for America starts a $250,000 nationwide cable buy aimed at influencing opinion-makers. It's part the group's $15 million effort.
The ad will run for 10 days on CNN and Fox, and a spokeswoman for PFA says it will be compliment by a grassroots program.
If you happen to be in a state where President Bush has decided to visit, let us know what you see on television and/or get in the mail. Or if you get phone calls. Our e-mail is politicalunit@abcnews.com, and we read every submission.
First Lady Laura Bush talks about heart disease at "The Red Dress 2005 Preview" at 10:30 am ET. At 2:00 pm ET, she attends "The Heart Truth Celebrity Fashion Show."
House Democrats head to Williamsburg, VA, for their annual three-day retreat to focus on strategy and message. At 11:45 am ET, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD), House Democratic Caucus Chairman Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and Reps. James Clyburn (D-SC) and Bobby Scott (D-VA) hold a press conference to preview it.
It's the first day on the job for newly sworn in Attorney General Alberto Gonzales. He's delivering remarks to employees at 10:30 am ET, and has a photo op with FBI Director Mueller, DEA Administrator Tandy, and other division chiefs at 1:30 pm ET.
The Labor Department reports that U.S. employers added 146,000 jobs last month -- more than in December, but still short of economists forecast for about 200,000. Overall, unemployment dropped to 5.2 percent in January from 5.4 percent in December.
We're hearing that DNC chair candidate/New Democrat Network founder Simon Rosenberg will make a "major announcement" in a conference call with reporters at 1:00 pm ET today.
Tomorrow at 7:00 pm ET, former Senator/presidential candidate John Edwards returns to Manchester for his first post-election speech as the main attraction at the New Hampshire Democratic Party's fundraiser. Edwards, like his former ticketmate John Kerry, is still looking to stay in the public eye as a voice -- or possibly a prod -- on the issues and the direction of the Democratic Party, and he's expected to talk about what he's doing now and in the upcoming months -- in particular, focusing on poverty, its core issues and how to address it.
On Sunday, "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" hosts Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld for a conversation about Iraq and U.S. foreign policy. House Minority Leader Pelosi and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) will also be on hand to talk about the President's plan for Social Security.
Social Security:
As the President took to the streets to drum up popular support for his Social Security plan -- and put the squeeze on a few Democratic Senators, which is always fun -- Democrats showed a surprising amount of unity in opposition, almost as if they'd talked about it and strategized or something.
Add that to the outside groups including MoveOn.org, who followed the President to Montana with their TV ad, and organized opposition on the ground by the AARP and the Campaign for America's future, plus wavering by Republicans both on the record and in blind quotes, and you've got yourself a pretty interesting day.
And how's this for hardball? The RNC is asking television stations to stop airing the MoveOn.org ads, incidentally. This morning, the party sent out the letter from deputy counsel Michael Bayes that said the spot "falsely and maliciously" claims that the President's Social Security plan cuts benefits up to 46 percent to pay for private accounts, and reminded stations that as FCC license holders, they have a responsibility "to avoid broadcasting deliberate misrepresentations of the facts."
The Washington Post's Jonathan Weisman follows up on his story yesterday that explained how much workers would be able to expect from their individual accounts. Weisman reported that a worker's account balance would be reduced by the total yearly contributions, plus 3 percent interest. The White House insisted he clarify, and explain that the full account balance would belong to the worker upon retirement. Which he did: LINK
We confess we don't really understand what happened here.
Today's installment makes clear that by opting into the private/personal/individual accounts, workers automatically cut their benefits by the amount that goes into the private accounts, plus interest equal to the amount that the money would earn if invested in government Treasury bonds. If the account makes more than the Treasury bond interest rate, some of the losses would be recouped. LINK
Kind of sounds more complicated than what gets said at campaign-style barnstorming events!!!
Opponents of the President's plan, who were out in full force yesterday, say a benefit cut is a benefit cut, regardless of where it comes from.
The Wall Street Journal's Jackie Calmes and Greg Ip dissect the benefit offset, Noting that "the White House's use of the 3% to calculate the offset rate is less generous to workers who opt for private accounts than the proposal crafted by a commission Mr. Bush appointed during his first term. The commission proposal, which is the basis for much of the president's current plan, used a 2% rate. The change saves the government money, but makes the private-account option less attractive to workers."
"Private accounts may be even less attractive given that some experts predict stock and bond returns will be much lower than in the past couple of decades, reflecting much higher stock valuations and lower bond yields."
The bottom line of this story: some will see the personal account game as not worth the candle, which is another line of attack that will require staunch White House defense.
The Washington Post's Glenn Kessler spells out Bush's Social Security plan in one of those good Q&As. LINK
The New York Times' congressional duo wraps the day's developments in skepticism. McCrery, Graham, Hagel, and Snowe appear to be the President's biggest problems now. LINK
And the Times' Edmund Andrews gets Bill Thomas to repeat his hints that the money to finance personal/private accounts could come from general revenues, an overhaul of the tax system, or somewhere else. LINK
Per the AP: "'I've talked to some of my colleagues and they're panic-stricken,' said Rep. Mark Foley, R-Fla., who said he welcomes a serious debate over the sweeping changes Bush outlined in his State of the Union address Wednesday." LINK
Mayor Bloomberg is uncomfortable with personal/private accounts, too. LINK
The Wall Street Journal's Jeanne Cummings on outside groups preparing to spend $35 million to help the President.
And Washington Wire adds more insider-y detail: "Democrats target 13 House Republican 'flip-floppers,' who once voiced support for private Social Security accounts but since have backed away. Party spirits rise from renewed alliance with AARP, which backed Bush on Medicare drug benefit."
"Conservative Club for Growth pressures wavering Republicans to support the White House on private accounts. A close Bush ally accuses Democratic lawmakers of guerrilla tactics in applauding State of the Union address at inappropriate times, hoping to disrupt Bush's cadence. But White House deficit-cutting efforts face Republican resistance, too. Lobbying power Clark & Weinstock hires House Appropriations staff chief Jim Dyer to help protect clients' subsidies."
"Tighter budgets fuel a "growing appropriations field" among K Street lobbyists, a firm spokeswoman says." (Again, we say, Note well how the release of those budget cuts threaten to create more distance between the White House and certain pork-hungry Republicans and make most/all Democrats more anti-Bush than they are now . . . )
Read Dick Stevenson's New York Times article to see who George W. Bush thinks is fiiiiiiiiiiine. LINK
Noam Schieiber takes his turn at TRB while Mr. Beinart is book-dealing. Here's his column from this week, which deals with a history of what he calls the "transformative" argument used by Republicans to justify big policy changes. LINK
The Wall Street Journal's lead editorial unwittingly backs Scheiber up with its editorial about the transformative opportunity Bush and the Republicans have.
Paul Krugman worries about your "gambling" losses. LINK
The Washington Post's E.J. Dionne thinks an honest debate about Social Security would be a great idea -- and wouldn't resemble what's about to happen in the least. LINK
Social Security: the road show:
The Washington Post's Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen Note that "Bush did not address the costs and risks associated with his proposal" while on the road to sell his Social Security plan, and look at the curveball Rep. Jim McCrery (R-LA) threw at the White House by suggesting that money intended for the Social Security trust fund shouldn't fund private accounts. LINK
"Under the emerging Bush plan, workers younger than 55 could voluntarily put some of their payroll tax, which funds Social Security, into individual investment accounts. In exchange, workers would forfeit a portion of their guaranteed benefit in hope of reaping a higher rate of return on their investment and a bigger nest egg. The money could not be touched, or borrowed against, until retirement, and the accounts would be tightly regulated. Americans 55 and older would not be affected by the changes."
Janet Hook of the Los Angeles Times lays out the President's Social Security Goodwill Tour, and looks at the hurdles that he probably can't negotiate with a few stops to try to win public opinion. LINK
The Los Angeles Times' Ed Chen Notes the President's folksy manner in these town hall meetings. LINK
Noting Sen. Byron Dorgan's Heisman on the Air Force One offer, the Boston Globe's Rick Klein writes that the President's effort "got off to a rocky start." LINK
The Los Angeles Times' Richard Simon examines the wooing of Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE). LINK
Jake Thompson of the Omaha World-Herald looks back at Nelson's "Social Security plus" idea from his 1996 Senate campaign -- which let people put part of their income tax free into IRA-like accounts. LINK
Jonathan Wegner of the Omaha World-Herald writes up the AARP's poll on Social Security, Noting that 50 percent of Nebraskans support the overhaul, 39 percent oppose it, and the rest remain undecided. Caveat emptor on surveys conducted for groups with a dog in the fight. LINK
The Lincoln Journal Star's Don Walton looks at how some Nebraska families are carefully weighing the President's pitch. LINK
William March of the Tampa Tribune outlines the groups in Tampa demonstrating both against and for the President's plan, Noting that the AARP made a full-page ad in the paper today part of its $5 million campaign and that people in some of Florida's top retiree districts have been getting robocalls. LINK
Stephen Nohlgren of the St. Pete Times takes a look at the polling on the idea of overhauling Social Security, and the semantics that make up such a big part of the strategy. LINK
Helen Huntley of the St. Pete Times explains the accounts. LINK
USA Today's Judy Keen Notes that the President continues his sales pitch next Tuesday in Detroit. LINK
Bush agenda:
Housing cuts, Medicaid cuts, and the new Bush budget. A preview of next week's debate in the Paper of Record. LINK
The Washington Post's Ceci Connolly curtain-raises President Bush's budget proposals on health care coming next week, in which he advocates spending an extra $140 billion to give heath insurance to more Americans over the next decade. LINK
The Washington Post's Peter Baker delves further into the President's SOTU proposal about expanding the use of DNA evidence in capital cases. LINK
Iraq:
The Washington Post's Bradley Graham reports that the U.S. will pull 15,000 troops out of Iraq next month, bringing the troop level to 135,000, according to Senate testimony yesterday from Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz. He also Notes that Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, declined to estimate the number of insurgents that U.S. forces are fighting, to the consternation of Sen. John McCain. LINK
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told Larry King last night that he offered twice to resign over Abu Ghraib. LINK; LINK
The cabinet: Alberto Gonzales:
Congratulations, Mr. Attorney General. LINK; LINK
None of the potential '08ers (except if Joe Lieberman runs . . . ) voted "aye."
DNC chair's race:
Ryan Lizza has just about the best summary of the DNC chair's race we've seen so far, so you'll want to read the entire thing. LINK
USA Today's Jill Lawrence on nervous Dems and Dean's strengths. LINK
Daniel Barrick of the Concord Monitor writes that Howard Dean's New Hampshire supporters expect he'll back the continuation of the Granite State's first-in-the-nation status. LINK
"We're in," a top aide to Donnie Fowler told us yesterday. "We get supporters everyday. Many of the rank and file Democrats want an alternative."
We asked for Fowler's own words, and he sent us this paragraph:
"After the November election, I decided not to just sit by and ask myself why we Democrats make the same mistakes over and over again. Instead, I decided to run for chairman of the Democratic Party to try to change things so our candidates can win again. Many people now ask why I stay in the race when the conventional wisdom assumes another candidate will be chosen. Why not be happy with a surprising come-from-nowhere second place finish and go back to California? I stay in this race because there are Democrats across the country agreeing with me that we must change our Party. We must begin to trust the local people who know how to win in their communities; become a Party that is focused on winning elections every year from dog-catcher to President; and strengthen our state parties to become the infrastructure to deliver Democratic messages. If we do not make these changes we will be consigned to more years of losing elections. When those supporters tell me they are satisfied that change is on the way, only then will I declare victory."
As of this morning, former Rep. Tim Roemer was still in the race, although we noticed that when we called his office Thursday, it was answered with a "Tim Roemer's office" greeting rather than a "Roemer for Chair" greeting.
And Simon Rosenberg? The poor man is ill and barely able to speak, a spokesman said, so there's nothing to report from his end, either. Though as we Noted above, we hear there's a "major announcement" coming today in a conference call with reporters at 1:00 pm ET.
Washington governor's race:
Lewis Kamb of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer curtain-raises today's hearing in Chelan County Superior Court, during which a judge will hear arguments in the GOP challenge to the election of Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire to determine whether the results should be thrown out and a re-vote ordered. LINK
David Postman of the Seattle Times looks at the Democrats' plans to ask Judge Bridges to dismiss the case, arguing that the legislature is the proper place to handle the issue, not the courts -- or if the courts, then the state Supreme Court. LINK
Michelle Nicolosi of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports that the Washington Secretary of State's office is beginning a statewide audit of county election offices to check the security of voting machines and make sure all equipment is state-approved. LINK
A Yakima County man has been arrested on suspicion of threatening Gov. Gregoire and her family. The state patrol is also guarding Dino Rossi. LINK
2006:Tommy Thompson for Wisconsin Governor? LINK
2008:
At the New Hampshire Democratic Party's 100 Club dinner tomorrow night, John Edwards will frame poverty as a core Democratic issue, and talk about the need for Democrats to be more aggressive in addressing issues and talking about their principles -- coincidentally, things he talked to E.J. Dionne about recently, and the main focus of his One America Committee (http://www.oneamericacommittee.com).
And if you can't be there in person, don't be sad -- it'll be live on C-SPAN.
Heck, the Stubbs allegations might well involve a "pathetic attempt" to gain attention, but why do we get the feeling that the story ain't over? And have those around Gov. Pataki learned anything about damage control? LINK
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Craig Gilbert writes that Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) appears to be leaving the door open to the idea of a presidential bid, Notes he's in the process of setting up a leadership PAC, and yes, is saying that Democrats need to own their agenda and the direction of their party. LINK
Campaign finance:
Roll Call's Amy Keller reports that the Federal Election Commission on Thursday made inflation adjustments to federal contribution limits for the first time ever -- courtesy of BCRA.
"Individual donors can now write checks to their favorite Congressional candidates for a maximum of $4,200 per two-year election cycle -- $2,100 for the primary and $2,100 for the general election. Donors can also give as much as $26,700 per calendar year to the national party committees."
"By contrast, donations were capped at $2,000 and $25,000, respectively, during the 2004 election cycle."
The New York Times' Glen Justice has more details. LINK
House of Labor:
There's little to report about yesterday's AFL-CIO executive committee meeting. According to a labor official who was briefed on the discussions by a participant, AFL-CIO President John Sweeney reiterated his commitment to strengthening the labor body's political program.
No progress was made on any of the various reform proposals, according to the official.
Politics:
The Washington Post's Ann Gerhart looks at the semi-mysterious departure of White House executive chef Walter Scheib. LINK
Don't miss Page Six on Bonnie Fuller exploring a crisis management and/or PR relationship with Howard Wolfson. LINK
Peter Nicholas and Robert Salladay of the Los Angeles Times write that as Gov. Schwarzenegger travels the state to sell his agenda to voters, he's sharing the stage with Citizens to Save California, a fundraising committee created to back his initiatives. According to state campaign laws, committees controlled by politicians are limited on the size of the donations they can accept. This group is taking unlimited donations. LINK
Kinky Friedman for Texas Governor in '06. Don't laugh. All right, laugh a little. LINK
Media:
The Woodward and Bernstein Watergate papers are open to the public at the University of Texas today. Another reason to book a trip to Austin soon -- as if we needed one. LINK