Pledged Delegate Milestone
Tuesday's primaries could give Obama a majority of pledged delegates.
May 19, 2008— -- KENTUCKY - Democratic Primary - closed
Polls close: 7:00 PM ET
51 delegates at stake, proportional
OREGON - Democratic Primary - closed
Polls close: 11:00 PM ET
52 delegates at stake, proportional
Tuesday night's primaries look like another split decision – Barack Obama is favored in Oregon and Hillary Clinton is favored in Kentucky. But unlike primary night draws in the past, Tuesday could be actually have a game-changing moment in the battle for the Democratic nomination.
The night could be a milestone in the nomination race if Obama is able to achieve a majority (1627 or more) of the total pledged delegates (3253). At this writing, he has 1609 pledged delegates in the ABC News delegate estimate and needs just 18 to achieve the majority.
Of course, this does not constitute victory. Obama still needs to reach the DNC's magic number of 2026. But reaching this pledged delegate marker does give the Obama a solid talking point to pitch to the 200 or so uncommitted superdelegates that they now should follow the will of the voters.
Clinton will be in Louisville when results come in tomorrow night while Obama will "bring things full circle" and hold a rally in Iowa.
ABC News' Sunlen Miller reports that Obama will not declare victory in the nomination fight but did call reaching the majority of pledged delegates "a pretty significant mark."
"It doesn't mean we declare victory because I won't be the nominee until we have enough, a combination of both pledged delegates and superdelegates to hit the mark," Obama said on Sunday in Milwaukie, Oregon. "But what it does mean is that voters have given us the majority of delegates that they can assign. And obviously that is what this primary and caucus process is about."
Things to look for on Tuesday night:
1. Superdelegate movement. While he will be able to claim the majority of pledged delegates, it would take a flood of superdelegates endorsing Obama to put him over the magic number of 2026 to win the nomination tomorrow night. But there are superdelgates that could announce after the results are in in Oregon and Kentucky. Eight of the 14 superdelegates from Oregon remain uncommitted and it would not be surprising to see them come out quickly after the results are in (and support Obama should he win the state). A spokesman for the Kentucky Democratic Party chair and vice-chair, who are both uncommitted, has indicated that they would wait until after the state votes and take into account the results.
2. Obama's support among women and white voters in Oregon. Women make up about 56 percent of registered Democrats in Oregon and African-Americans make up just 1.7 percent of the state's population. A win there could provide an opportunity for Obama to answer many of the recent questions about his support among white voters and women voters.
3. Turnout in Kentucky's cities. Kentucky's demographics (working-class white rural voters and conservative Democrats) favor Clinton. But unlike West Virginia or other southern states with an overwhelming white working class majority, there are a couple of population centers that Obama's strong GOTV operation can target. Louisville and Lexington are the state's two largest cities and are more progressive than the rest of the state, with a large number of black voters. A high turnout there could make the race close, which could propel Obama to the pledged delegate majority even before polls close in Oregon.
4. Turnout in Oregon's cities vs. small towns. Obama's support is strongest in cities like Portland and Eugene, home to the University of Oregon. Around 75,000 people attended his rally on Sunday night in Portland, his largest audience of the campaign. In recent elections, just under half of the statewide Democratic vote has come from Portland and its surrounding suburbs. Voters there resemble Obama's supporters in other states – liberal, well-educated and higher-income. The Clinton campaign has focused on smaller towns in the Beaver State, hoping to draw support from the blue-collar workers in the timber and manufacturing industries. Political analysts in the state say there just are not enough of them to propel her to victory like in Ohio or Pennsylvania.
*http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0077975/
On the campaign front. . .
BARACK OBAMA
-- Attends rally with Michelle Obama and voters, Des Moines, IA
HILLARY CLINTON
-- 7:00 pm ET: Attends election night event with supporters, Louisville, KY
As for the Republicans. . .
JOHN MCCAIN
-- 11:00 am ET: Delivers remarks and attends town hall meeting with voters, Miami, FL
-- 1:00 pm ET: Tours La Casa del Preso, Miami, FL
At the White House and Beyond. . .
PRESIDENT BUSH
-- 3:05 pm ET: Speaks on World Trade Week, Washington, DC
LABOR DEPARTMENT
-- 8:30 am ET: Releases the Producer Price Index for April, Washington, DC
PRESIDENT HARIS SILAJDZIC OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
-- 11:00 am ET: Speaks at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC
POLITICAL NEWS STORIES ON ABCNEWS.COM
ABC News' Imaeyen Ibanga: Obama Warns GOP "Lay Off My Wife" LINK
ABC News' Jake Tapper: Obama Declares Michelle Off-Limits LINK
ABC News' Jake Tapper: Rove's Latest Electoral Maps Have Clinton Stronger Than Obama Against McCain LINK
ABC News' Eloise Harper: Clinton: 'This Is Nowhere Near Over' LINK
ABC News' Jake Tapper: A Man, A Plan, An Indictment -- Panama LINK
ABC News' Kate Snow: Bush Checks in on Kennedy LINK
ABC News' Jake Tapper: Conservatives Hammer Obama for Meeting with Imam Who Also Met with Pope & Bush LINK
ABC News' Bret Hovell: McCain Hits Obama on Iran. . . Again LINK
ABC News' Jake Tapper: If Wives Are Off Limits. . . LINK
ABC News' Jake Tapper: Byrd Joins the Flock LINK
POLITICAL VIDEO ON ABCNEWS.COM
'View' Fight Over U.S. Diplomacy
The ladies get into a heated debate over U.S. talks with other nations. LINK
British PM Joins YouTube
Britain's Gordon Brown is using YouTube to reach young voters. LINK
Obama: 'Lay Off My Wife'
The senator and his wife discuss the race for the White House. LINK
Ted Kennedy Recovering
Doctors are attempting to determine what caused the senator's seizure. LINK
Bush Sees Mideast Peace
The president came back to the U.S. confident of an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal. LINK
Is the Race at an End?
Obama is poised to declare victory after the primaries on Tuesday. LINK
Will Obama Defeat Hillary?
Mark Halperin weighs in on the Democratic race. LINK
Ted Kennedy's Health Scare
The senator was doing well a day after suffering a seizure LINK
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"GMA" anchor Ron Claiborne leads a discussion on race in politics. LINK
Sen. Biden on 'Appeasement'
Foreign Relations Committee head on Iran, Obama and vice presidency. LINK
Rep. John Boehner Not Going Anywhere
House minority leader committed to delivering the 'change Americans deserve.' LINK
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George Will, Donna Brazile, Matt Bai and Peggy Noonan. LINK
Green Room: Baseball and Politics
George Will, Donna Brazile, Matt Bai and Peggy Noonan. LINK