The Note: A Sprint, Not a Marathon
— -- WASHINGTON, April 25
NEWS SUMMARY
There will be political sound and fury galore this week, with tomorrow's Social Security multi-ring circus (a big hearing in the Senate and rallies all over DC and the country) probably generating the most heat+light (=probably nothing at all . . . ).
But there are a lot of other stories on high percolation as well, so this weekend, we moved 500 of the Googling monkeys off of their keyboards and onto their abacuses, to calculate the level of interest the major players have in the big stories.
First, here are the major storylines in play:
Washington's political foci, in alphabetical order:
1. Bolton nomination
2. Budget negotiations
3. DeLay fate
4. Economy, oil, and Saudi Arabia
5. Filibuster face-off
6. Iraq war completion
7. Social Security
Now:
The White House's political foci, in the order it cares about them (from most to least):
1. Iraq war completion
2. Economy, oil, and Saudi Arabia
3. Social Security
4. Budget negotiations
5. Bolton nomination
6. Filibuster face-off
7. DeLay's fate
The left-leaning and conflict obsessed MSM's political foci, in the order it cares about them (from most to least):
1. Filibuster face-off (Bill Frist is an extremist puppet of the Right!!!)
2. Economy, oil, and Saudi Arabia (release the SPR!!!)
3. DeLay fate (bring him down!!!)
4. Bolton nomination (withdraw it!!! or Hagel and other GOP defections will cause it to go down on votes!!!)
5. Social Security (let it suffer a fate worse than HillaryCare!!!)
6. Iraq war (is that thing still going on??!!!)
7. North Korea (David Sanger only.)
8. Areas of disagreement between Brad Freeman and Roland Betts regarding the White House gardener (Elisabeth Bumiller only.)
9. Budget negotiations
The Note's political foci, in the order we care about them (from most to least):
1. Budget negotiations
2. Substance of the allegations against Bolton and DeLay
3. Raymond Reggie's FBI wire
4. Filibuster face-off
5. Mitt Romney's 2006/08 decision
(The Note, like the President, believes in a tight focus.)
In Crawford, TX today, said President meets with Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia at 11:55 am ET. Dick Stevenson and Jeff Gerth have a detail-laden, multi-subject preview in the New York Times, including the Dick Cheney pre-meeting. LINK
We are not expected to hear from the President today publicly.
There are a few Social Security events today, but the big stuff starts tomorrow, when the Senate Finance Committee begins formal hearings on some specifics, with Sen. Grassley now focused on a bill that can pass, even if it is partisan. America Coming Together, Americans United to Protect Social Security and other Democrat-linked organizations plan rallies in many cities and towns. Various organizers describe the rally planned for Capitol Hill as "huge."
President Bush has Social Security events on Tuesday in Galveston, TX. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay will attend, and DeLay gets to ride back with Bush on Air Force One President Bush has another Social Security event on Friday in Northern Virginia.
Today, at 2:15 pm ET, Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Charles Schumer and Ron Wyden have a Social Security event in New York; they'll be joined by Wall Streeters opposed to private/personal accounts. (The Empire State Senators also do a public event with the Secretary of Homeland Security in Gotham City.)
The Leadership Conference on Civil Rights joins other left-leaning civil rights groups in unveiling their plan to "preserve" Social Security today at 9:00 am ET. Americans United releases its latest Social Security poll at an event in the Capitol with Sen. Max Baucus and Rep. Sander Levin.
The U.S. Senate spends the week debating the highway bill, which the House passed in early March. At $284 billion and with a recess/filibuster fight looming, chances are not too good for a vote this week. Action begins today at 2:00 pm ET. The House is in session at noon.
Senate Democrats this week plan to detail what they say will happen if Sen. Frist pulls the nuclear/constitutional trigger. Minority Leader Harry Reid has an appearance before the Breakfast Formerly Known as Sperling today to draw out the implications.
The Supreme Court meets for orders and arguments at 10:00 am ET.
The latest gas price numbers are released by the Energy Information Administration at 4:30 pm ET.
RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman is in Texas today raising money.
California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger holds a news conference today at 2:00 pm ET.
The Federal Election Commission begins a conference on corporations and politics in DC.
On Wednesday, President Bush speaks at the Small Business Administration National Small Business Week Conference in Washington and in the evening attends an NRSC dinner at a private home.
The President meets with the President of Panama on Thursday in the Oval Office, reports ABC News' Karen Travers. The President and Mrs. Bush will attend the White House Correspondents' Association dinner on Saturday at the Hilton in Washington.
According to a new ABC News Poll, "American Catholics are responding with support if not great enthusiasm to the selection of Pope Benedict the 16th, and with a clear message on his first priority: addressing the issue of sexual abuse of children by priests. 81% of Catholics in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll approve of the pope's election; however, just a quarter call themselves "very enthusiastic" about it," reports ABC's Joe Cohen. 71% of Catholics cite "addressing the issue of sexual abuse by priests" as a highest priority for the new pope; fewer, 41%, say "preserving the church's traditions" should be among Benedict's highest priorities. Last on the priorities list, at 22%, is "responding to the concerns of women in the church."
See the full report later today on ABC News.com, and watch for a new poll of national political dynamics, too.
Tomorrow, And First Lady Laura Bush appears on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno."
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi speaks to students at Columbia University.
The House Government Reform Committee holds a hearing on the NFL's steroid policy, with commissioner Paul Tagliabue on the witness list. Russian President Vladimir Putin visits Israel.
On Thursday, the government will release its first estimate of first quarter 2005's gross domestic product. A Senate committee holds hearings on video press releases. The RNC holds a meeting for state chairs in Cleveland; the Nevada Republican Party holds a Lincoln Day dinner with Karl Rove in attendance in Las Vegas; The FEC holds an open meeting; and Rock The Vote hosts its annual awards in Los Angeles, CA.
Friday, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton visits Milwaukee, WI for the Wisconsin Women in Government 18th Annual Recognition Dinner. On Saturday, Clinton attends the Legal Aid Society's annual dinner in Cleveland.
Filibuster showdown:
The network morning shows loved this story today -- one even touted Sen./Dr./Leader Frist as someone who might be our next president.
Farah Stockman of the Boston Globe on Sunday examined the allegations about Bolton's behavior from Lynne Finney, who worked in the general counsel's office at USAID in the early 1980s. LINK
Social Security:
USA Today's Susan Page looks at spate of key issues for President Bush and Congress and the latest USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll, which shows that nearly twice as many Americans oppose President Bush's plan to overhaul Social Security as support it, and the public's sense of urgency for the revamp is dissipating. And while Democrats remain united, divisions are showing among Republican members of Congress, and some strategists on both sides aren't giving the likelihood of a deal much of a chance. Former Sen. John Breaux (D-LA) puts it more bluntly: "'The White House should be looking for an exit strategy.'" LINK
"The percentage who said it was 'extremely important' for the president and Congress to deal with Social Security this year dipped to 37%. In February, before the push began, the number was 41%. Americans rated action on terrorism, health care costs, gas prices and the economy as more urgent."
"Support for investment accounts eroded to 33% from 40%; the proportion who called it 'a bad idea' grew to 61% from 55%. Nearly half of those surveyed said Bush was 'trying to dismantle the Social Security system,' not protect it."
Fred Barnes is nearly as grim as Susan Page, and his grimness probably matters more.
While paying lip service to the Notion that there is still a chance that things could change, Barnes (formerly a Beadle, now a Boy) has a must read advice piece in the Weekly Standard:
"In such an environment, imagine the options available to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) if he doesn't win the 2008 Republican nomination, and former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska, now that he's dropped his flirtation with running for mayor of New York. If the two Vietnam veterans joined for an all-maverick independent ticket, they might inspire a gold rush of online support -- and make the two national parties the latest example of the Internet's ability to threaten seemingly impregnable institutions."
2008: Republicans:
Sen. Frist's VolPAC has agreed to pay a $10,000 fine to settle a case with the FEC, which found problems with how the organization disclosed its actions and handled money, Roll Call's Amy Keller reports.
A conclave to discuss Gov. George Pataki's future was postponed, writes Fred Dicker in the New York Post. LINK