The Note: Manic Moves and Drowsy Dreams
— -- WASHINGTON, June 23
NEWS SUMMARY
Measured with calipers, there are precisely 2.0 questions that matter in American politics today:
1. What does the Gang of 500 think about the current status of the war in Iraq and about the prospect that President Bush will sign into law major Social Security reform?
and
2. What does the Bush White House think about what the Gang of 500 thinks about the current status of the war in Iraq and about the prospects that President Bush will sign into law major Social Security reform, and what do they think they can do about it?
(Yes, yes, we know that that might seem like three questions, but it is really just two.)
For the answers, you COULD make, oh, 65 phone calls, get 13 of them returned, and try to find your own source "familiar" with White House strategy who likes to use the word "metrics" in blind quotes -- or, you could just read the so-called "Killer Twin Must Reads" of Ron Brownstein and Jim VandeHei.
The Los Angeles Times' Brownstein asks whether President Bush's PR efforts with regard to Iraq are enough to stem the downhill flow of public opinion about the war, and whether anything he can say about it will have much effect in the face of events and growing pressure from Republicans who remain supportive but are starting to lay on some pressure. LINK
Brownstein Notes a possible prime time presidential speech on Tuesday. Stay tuned.
"Another Republican familiar with White House thinking said Bush would confront the 'progress' issue by highlighting the continuing steps toward the writing of a constitution and election of a permanent Iraqi government."
"'What's driving public opinion polls right now is the security situation,' said the strategist, who requested anonymity when discussing White House matters. 'But . . . part of our job is to make sure [Americans] take into account other metrics, including the political metric.'"
And the Washington Post's VandeHei wraps President Bush's "feel your pain" sentiments for working families yesterday, starting out with a news of day story and then going wide and deep and far. LINK
". . . Bush did not promise new policies. Instead, a top aide said, the president was reviving a strategy first tested in 2002 to present his agenda as one aimed at the working man and woman. 'It's a familiar message . . . but one we have turned to again because we want people to consider the legislative priorities . . . in the context of a larger strategic goal of creating economic security for working families,' said a senior White House aide, who demanded anonymity to discuss the tactical shift."
"With recent polls showing Bush's popularity sagging, the White House is searching for a new way of connecting with the American people on economic issues and the war in Iraq. Bush aides had forecast that the president would begin speaking more forthrightly about problems in both areas, trying to disabuse some Republicans of concerns that he risks seeming indifferent or out of touch. Yesterday's event reflected the shift in tone, but it also made it clear that the president is not altering in any fundamental way his policies or arguments for them."
"The event also highlighted a contrast between Bush and his predecessor. In general, Bush aides have been disdainful of what they regarded as Clinton's overly reactive and insincere politics of empathy. In times of trouble, however, the current president has tried to match Clinton's empathetic notes -- though usually not his practice of proposing scores of narrowly focused policies to target constituencies. Bush, aides said, thinks Clinton downsized the presidency and does not think his own policies need to be changed."
President Bush -- whose newspaper reading habits are still a mystery to many -- continues to tout his Social Security plan with a speech at 9:50 am ET at Montgomery Blair High School in Silver Spring, MD. Per ABC News' Karen Travers, this is the President's 34th Social Security event (in his 27th state on the tour) since Feb. 2.
ABC News' Jessica Yellin reports, "Ben Stein, the comedian/actor/former Nixon speechwriter and all around snarky guy, will be joining the President at his Conversation on Strengthening Social Security today."
Rep. Van Hollen (D-MD), County Executive Duncan, and Rep. Cardin (D-MD) will handle post-speech bracketing.
Sens. Santorum (R-PA), DeMint (R-SC), Graham (R-SC), Crapo (R-ID), and Coburn (R-OK) head to the Radio-TV Gallery for a 10:30 am ET press conference introducing legislation they call, "Stop the Raid on Social Security."
Later, President Bush will head over to the EEOB (still doesn't roll off the tongue as easily as OEOB, does it?) at 1:45 pm ET to make a statement on CAFTA. (A late add to the schedule, that.)
Vice President Cheney will be interviewed by CNN's Wolf Blitzer, which will air today at 5:00 pm ET.
Just after Wolf's show wraps up, Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-DCCC) will be joined by Members of Congress in reading the names of those who have given their lives in the war in Iraq and Afghanistan during a one-hour Special Order beginning at 6:00 pm ET.
The Supreme Court convenes at 10:00 am ET to deliver another set of decisions as the end of the term nears.
Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid joined by Sens. Durbin, Leahy, Kennedy, and Schumer holds a press conference at 12:45 pm ET to unveil a letter signed by 44 Democrats to President Bush urging him to consult with the Senate before nominating the next Supreme Court justice.
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Richard Meyers discuss Iraq before the Senate Armed Services Committee at 9:30 am ET before giving an encore performance on the House side at 2:00 pm ET.
Ret. Gen. Wesley Clark is making another appearance on the Hill today. He'll speak before the Senators-only Democratic Policy Committee lunch. He's expected to lay out his perspective on how Democrats should handle the crisis in Iraq and what the party needs to do to win in '06.
RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman addresses the NALEO Conference in San Juan, Puerto Rico at 11:45 am ET.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Evan Bayh (D-IN), Lindsey Graham (R-SC), and Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) testify at the Senate Finance Committee hearing on "U.S.-China Economic Relations" at 10:00 am ET.
May existing home sales will be announced at 10:00 am ET. ABC News' Dan Arnall has more: "The broadest measure of strength in the housing market. Realtors tell us if people are buying homes for resale. April saw sales jump unexpectedly to a new record sales pace. This month, analysts expect a bit of a flat month. Many analysts expect the housing market to cool at some point during 2005."
Also at 10:00 am ET, Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) and former Sen. Bob Dole announce a new military scholarship for veterans of Afghanistan and Iraq backed by the Horatio Alger Society.
House Minority Leader Pelosi (D-CA) holds her weekly press conference at 10:45 am ET.
At 2:30 pm ET, Representatives Albert Wynn (W-MD) and Christopher Shays (R-CT) discuss the pros and cons of the 527 Fairness Act of 2005.
Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) will hold a hearing of the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Right and Property Rights at 2:00 pm ET, examining the consequences of Roe v. Wade and Doe v. Bolton. This is the first in a series of hearings that will highlight what Brownback sees as the effect some of the Supreme Court's decisions have had on American life and government.
Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and former Sen. John Danforth announce the results of a Pew Global Attitudes Project poll on America's image at 2:00 pm ET.
Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim Al-Jaafari has a full schedule today. He is expected to meet with Vice President Cheney and National Security Adviser Hadley at the White House. At 10:00 am ET he will sit down with Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist before heading over to the House to take part in a closed meeting with the House Committee on International Relations at 11:00 am ET. In the afternoon, the Prime Minister will offer what may be his picture of the day at the National Archives at 3:00 pm ET. Tonight at 6:30 pm ET, Al-Jaafari addresses the Council on Foreign Relations.
As the energy bill continues to chug along, Gov. Frank Murkowski (R-AK) holds a 9:30 am ET news briefing on the need for responsible oil and gas development in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
Sens. Reid (D-NV), Durbin (D-IL), and Cantwell (D-WA) will make their energy views known at 2:00 pm ET in a press availability.
The Senate reconvened at 9:00 am ET this morning. A cloture vote on the energy bill will occur at 10:00 am ET. A vote on final passage is expected to occur Thursday evening or early Friday morning.
Jerry Kilgore, Tim Kaine, and Russ Potts make their first post-primary joint appearance this evening with Coretta Scott King to launch a non-partisan youth voter outreach program entitled, "Generation Engage," at 7:00 pm ET in Richmond, VA.
And Capitol Hill Democrats and Republicans will unite tonight -- but not for anything related to legislative matters. At 7:05 pm ET, more than 50 members of Congress take to the diamond for the annual Roll Call Congressional charity baseball game at RFK stadium.
Social Security:
A Note prediction: as the MSM picks over the new GOP Social Security plan, skepticism will grow even greater in many quarters.
The best parts of the New York Times story on the new Republican Social Security plan in Congress: LINK
"When they retire, workers would receive two checks, one from Social Security and the other from the money that had accrued in their accounts. If their accounts did poorly and the total of the two checks was less than a full Social Security payment would have been, the government would make up the difference. So everyone would fare the same or better than they would under the current system, the Republicans said."
And: "They offered no clue about how accounts would be financed when Social Security was no longer running a surplus, but the implicit view was that politicians would be under great political pressure to find some other means of paying for them."
The Los Angeles Times' Joel Havemann and Janet Hook characterize House Ways and Means Chairman Bill Thomas' embrace of the new Social Security idea as lukewarm. LINK
Note the Washington Post's Mike Allen and Jonathan Weisman: "The idea was embraced as a palatable step by House leaders, most of whom have been jittery about pursuing a restructuring of Social Security as they head into midterm elections that Republicans believe may be the toughest the party has faced in 10 years." LINK
And ". . . critics say there is not enough money to make the plan viable. About 130 million Americans who pay into Social Security and are under 55 would be entitled to personal accounts. Excluding interest owed on borrowed Social Security funds, the cash surplus from Social Security taxes this year will leave enough for an average of $434 available for each account."
USA Today's Richard Wolf calls the new plan a victory for the "pain caucus." LINK
The ed board of the Nation's Newspaper calls the proposal a shell game. LINK
While on its op-ed page, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) argues it's a shot at giving the Social Security surplus back to workers. LINK
The Wall Street Journal editorial board applauds the effort and claims some ownership as well.
The AP reports that Senate Finance Chairman Chuck Grassley just can't bring himself to say so long, farewell to the private accounts option for Social Security. LINK
Bush agenda:
Warren Vieth of the Los Angeles Times focuses on the President's urging of new nuclear power plants and the energy bill. LINK
USA Today's Judy Keen and Kathy Kieley look at how congressional Democrats are benefiting from President Bush's attempts to cash in his political capital, and how he could improve his odds. LINK
The politics of Iraq:
In his New York Times column, David Brooks urges patience among the American people at this moment in Iraq, when a majority of them would like to get past things as they are now. Note too his very supportive words for Sen. Biden. It's a must-read, folks. LINK
The New York Times raps with Sen. Levin and other Democrats about the Bush Administration's Iraq policy. LINK
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is on the Hill today talking about Iraq's progress in training its own security forces. LINK
The politics of national security:
Karl Rove had some strong words for Dick Durbin and the Democratic Party post-9/11 last night in New York, per the 43rd Street paper. LINK
David Sanger of the New York Times looks at issues of food and fuel in North Korea. LINK
ABC News' Jonathan Karl reports, "Two senior State Department officials, called a background briefing with reporters in London this morning to complain about Syria's continued meddling in Lebanon."
"A senior State Department official said, 'there is no question' Syrian intelligence agents continue to operate in Lebanon, adding, 'we are certain.'"
"This follows Secretary of State Rice's comments on Tuesday accusing Syria of creating instability in Lebanon that, she said, has lead to the assassinations of three anti-Syrian political figures. Rice said on Tuesday: 'They need to knock it off.'"
"Neither the senior State Department official nor Dr. Rice have offered any evidence."
"Syria -- which didn't make the cut to be included in either the 'axis of evil' or Dr. Rice's 'outposts of tyranny' -- has been the target of more heated rhetoric lately than even Iran and North Korea."
Carla Anne Robbins of the Wall Street Journal writes, "The White House is preparing an executive order that would bring new pressure on North Korea, Iran and Syria by cracking down on companies believed to be helping their weapons or nuclear programs."
Bolton:
The Washington Post's Chuck Babington looks at the game of hot potato the White House and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist are playing with the Bolton nomination, Noting the Dodd/Biden holdup and the insistence of the Gang of 14 to sticking only to judicial nominations when asked about a filibuster compromise. LINK
Deb Orin of the New York Post wonders why the Administration isn't trumpeting Bolton's efforts at getting the UN to reverse its "Zionism is racism" resolution. (And be sure to Note her Sen. Nelson of Florida angle.) LINK
SCOTUS:
USA Today's Mark Memmott looks at the first shot across the bow in the fight over a SCOTUS nominee by Progress for America in the form of a new TV ad. LINK
The Wall Street Journal's Cummings and Bravin lead into their sketches of potential nominees thusly, "The jurists on the rumor-mill shortlist are likely to equal -- if not exceed -- the conservative views of Chief Justice Rehnquist. But there are some important differences in their résumés and rulings that could determine how they would fare in the Senate, where Democrats have waged a scorched-earth campaign against some of President Bush's nominees to lower courts -- and will likely be even more geared for a fight with the highest legal stakes of all."
Abramoff:
Few people have likely spent as much time poring through the Abramoff e-mails as The New Republic's Michael Crowley, who reveals a Naftasib-Abramoff-Israeli settlers web that may raise a new question or two for Mr. DeLay. LINK
The Washington Post's Susan Schmidt and James Grimaldi put funding the "sniper school" in the West Bank right up top in their lede, and Ralph Reed told them he asked the Choctaw tribe to make sure the money he got didn't come from gambling interests. LINK
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution headline: "E-mails: Reed knew tribal money funded anti-gambling campaigns" LINK
"The e-mail exchanges also indicate that Reed knew from the beginning of his professional association with Abramoff in 1999 that a Mississippi Indian tribe with casino interests was bankrolling much of his anti-gambling activity in Alabama against a state-sponsored lottery and video poker."
Reed's response: "Asked by reporters for comment, Reed did not address e-mails that indicated he was involved in planning to pass Choctaw money through nonprofit organizations."
"Instead, Reed read a prepared statement from Atlanta declaring him vindicated and pointing to testimony from Choctaw officials who said the millions they handed over to Abramoff for the Alabama campaigns came from the tribe's nongambling operations. Eighty-five percent to 90 percent of the Choctaws' business revenue comes from two casinos and associated entertainment ventures, the tribe has said."
The New York Times' Kornblut rounds up the (McCain) hearing and Notices one of the star witnesses sideburns and jeans. LINK
Dana Milbank of the Washington Post adds more color. LINK
More on the hearing from the Los Angeles Times. LINK
Ethics:
The New York Times says that the chair of the House ethics committee -- Doc Hastings -- might step down -- with implications galore. LINK
The Los Angeles Times provides an opportunity for you to get caught up on the Rep. Cunningham story thus far. LINK
Congress:
The Washington Post on the House flag-burning amendment. LINK
The Washington Post's Amy Joyce on the Kennedy-Corzine-Weiner Wal-Mart bill: LINK
Durbin apologizes:
The Chicago Tribune's Jill Zuckman deconstructs the Durbin firestorm. LINK
The Clintons of Chappaqua:
"The book is poorly written, poorly thought, poorly sourced and full of the kind of loaded language that is appropriate to a polemic but not an investigative work," writes Peggy Noonan of the Ed Klein book. LINK
Dean's Democrats:
Dan Balz has the Washington Post's take on the Democrats' report on voting in Ohio in 2004. LINK
The New York Times' Dao sums it up as well. LINK
Matt Bai ponders the parallels between "King of the Hill" and real-life conservative America in his Sunday New York Times Magazine piece, "King of the Hill Democrats?"
Inspired by Brian C. Anderson's new book, "South Park Conservatives: The Revolt Against Liberal Media Bias," the book-writing NYTMag'er mulls over North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley's suggestion that Hank Hill, the Fox sitcom's gruff Texan protagonist, roughly approximates America's average Southern/independent/conservative.
Bai considers Easley's recent political agenda -- and its harmony with Hank Hill's conservative value system -- all while warning inquisitive Democrats that the program's nine year run may be coming to a close. "There is more reality about American life in five minutes of 'King of the Hill' than in a full season of watching Paris Hilton prance around a farm in high heels," Bai writes.
2008: Republicans:
In Geoff Earle's look at Rudy Giuliani's presidential prospects in The Hill, wherein Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) has nothing but praise, and Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) reminds readers how important "electability" may be in 2008. LINK
And/but Earle writes, "Giuliani earns near-universal admiration among congressional Republicans -- an important constituency in the race for the nomination. But even his biggest boosters can't say for sure whether a big-city mayor who supports abortion rights can win over the social conservatives who hold overwhelming sway within the GOP."
Gov. Pataki's son has joined the Marines. LINK
2008: Democrats:
Bob Novak "does" Joe Biden, as only Bob Novak can -- spinning a tale that you will want to read and digest and wonder about.LINK
If you a reporter, be sure to ask Norm for the real story about Norm!!!
After being spotted Tuesday on the Hill walking through the Capitol with New York's junior senator, and then again spotted in Dick Durbin's Capitol office, Gen. Clark has accepted Sen. Dorgan's invitation to speak at the DPC lunch today where he's expected to warn Democrats against talking about troop pullouts and timelines and instead hold the Administration's feet to the fire to provide a success strategy.
He'll urge Democrats to stick together and not play in to GOP hands by dividing on statements like those of Dean and Durbin of late.
Clark is also raising some campaign cash for congressional candidates while in town. Tuesday night he headlined a fundraiser for Eric Massa for Congress. Last night he did the same for Rep. Lincoln Davis (D-TN).
For those interested in Sen. Clinton's political views, political future, and capacity for political nuance, we recommend reading every sentence of her statement on the flag burning amendment -- each one a special and interesting gem.
The AP's Ron Fournier calls it "carefully worded" and gets Chris Lehane and Jim Jordan to weigh in on this politically tricky (for some Democrats, anyway) amendment. LINK
We bet if you read this New York Times op-ed about Al Gore, you will have the same initial reaction that we did. LINK
New Hampshire:
In today's Granite Status, John DiStaso Notes that New Hampshire's primary status is bringing Progress for America to the state's doorstep with its latest yea-or-nay-to-judicial nominees ad campaign. He cheers on Sen. Joe Biden after a tastefully done 2008 campaign announcement -- for which the Senator already solidified an NH dinner invite -- and runs through plenty of old familiar names that will breeze through the Granite State (perhaps whilst singing old familiar songs?) this summer. LINK
For the Tom Rath and Jack Heath references alone, it is, yet again, a must-read.
The politics of public broadcasting:
The Los Angeles Times' Matea Gold paints a pretty dire picture for PBS. LINK
The Washington Post's Paul Farhi looks at how political stripes are coloring the arguments over public broadcasting. LINK
2005:
Those pleasant poll numbers for Mayor Bloomberg we told you about yesterday generate a bunch of ink this morning. LINK and LINK.
And Quinnipiac offers up some more numbers today showing the love New Yorkers have for their NYPD across all ethnic groups. And be sure to Note those Ray Kelly job approval numbers too. LINK
City Council Speaker Gifford Miller conceded that he does not have the votes to override Mayor Bloomberg's veto, allowing the Mayor's trash plan to move forward. LINK
2006:
"Some of President Bush's biggest donors are hosting an event next week for Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.), a centrist Republican who has frequently opposed Bush's top priorities," reports The Hill's Jonathan Kaplan. LINK
"Signaling that the White House is solidly behind Chafee's candidacy, Andrew Card, Bush's chief of staff, also will be on hand at the Charlie Palmer steakhouse Monday evening to help raise $50,000."
Ed Cox makes a hire for his campaign which has some Karl Rove connection, reports Celeste Katz of the New York Daily News. LINK
Roll Call looks at the May fundraising reports filed with the FEC -- the NRCC took in $7.3 million, spent $3.8 million, and had $13 million left in the bank. The DCCC raised $2.7 million, spent $2.4 million, and had $3.4 million in cash on hand, in addition to $3.7 million in debts from last cycle. The NRSC raised $3.3 million, spent $2.3 million and had $6 million in the bank. The DSCC raised $2.8 million, spent $1.3 million, and had $8.9 million in cash on hand.
Politics:
In his story describing the big-bucks race for chairman of the College Republicans, the Washington Post's Tom Edsall gets the best quote from conservative strategist/consultant Craig Shirley: "It's like passion mixed with Clearasil." LINK
"The Federal Election Commission (FEC) is scheduled to vote today on a controversial new rule that would allow trade associations such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to deduct political contributions automatically from the executives and employees of member corporations," writes The Hill's Alexander Bolton. LINK
"A draft of the final rule issued this week by the FEC's office of general counsel is opposed by organized labor and Democratic-appointed commissioners in the agency."
Roll Call's Suzanne Nelson writes that the measures to regulate 527 groups appear to be fizzling.
Gov. Taft has "no intention of resigning" from office despite the controversies swirling around him. LINK
The New York state legislature has approved a measure to allow pharmacists, midwives, and nurses to distribute the morning-after pill. LINK