A Senate Landscape on the Brink of Change

Oct. 27, 2006— -- Entering the final, frenzied week before the midterm election, the fight for the Senate's 33 available seats will boil down to the outcome in a handful of races that occupy significant space in the national spotlight.

A recent joint appearance by Sens. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) and Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) at the National Press Club underlined the tension as the campaign enters the homestretch.

Schumer seemed guardedly optimistic.

"It's hardly a certainty, and nobody on our side in the Senate is breaking out the champagne," Schumer said, "But we are on the edge, [where] we didn't even think we'd be about three months ago."

Dole seemed markedly realistic.

"The political environment has been very tough for Republicans for many, many months, almost since the beginning of my term at the National Republican Senatorial Committee. No question about it," said Dole. "But our incumbents have understood the challenge before them."

Raising Money, Rising Hopes

Schumer has proved to be a prodigious fundraiser, consistently beating his Republican counterpart in the race for campaign cash this cycle.The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has raised $104 million for the cycle compared with the NRSC's $78 million.

Additionally, the Democrats have $9.7 million in the bank as of Oct. 18. Republicans have a little less, with $8.9 million for the homestretch.

Republicans currently hold 55 Senate seats, and Democrats, 44; an independent holds the remaining seat. To regain control of the Senate, Democrats need six seats and have targeted Pennsylvania, Ohio, Rhode Island, Montana, Missouri, Virginia, and Tennessee as their best bets. Republicans are looking for possible pickups in New Jersey and Maryland.

Operatives on both sides believe the races most likely to go from red to blue are in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana. In Ohio, Republican Sen. Mike DeWine is one of the prime targets of the Democratic Party, following Rep. Bob Ney's (R-Ohio) guilty plea in the Abramoff investigation and Gov. Bob Taft's tarnished aura.

The Democrats' recruitment of dogged campaigner and respected Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown of Ohio has been described by some as risky, though the polls reflect otherwise. The outcome of this election in particular depends on the success of the Democrats in localizing national issues to the advantage of their party.

Key Incumbents in Danger

In Pennsylvania, two-term Republican incumbent Sen. Rick Santorum has spent the better part of the last year fighting public and private polls that show Democratic challenger, State Treasurer Bob Casey, with a significant lead. Schumer recruited the moderate Casey early on in an effort to neutralize the abortion issue in this battleground state. (Casey opposes abortion.)

In another race tainted by the far-reaching tentacles of the Abramoff scandal, Montana's incumbent, Republican Sen. Conrad Burns, faces the challenge of his political career from Jon "Flat Top" Tester, a left-leaning farmer.

Although Burns held a financial advantage in this race, it is relatively inexpensive to run television ads in Montana, and national and state Democrats have bombarded Burns on the air (and hurt his poll numbers) for more than a year over his Abramoff affiliation. Burns also suffers from acute foot-in-mouth disease (while sharing a stage with the first lady in August, he said that terrorists "drive taxi cabs in the daytime and kill at night").

Three states in particular have fallen into the battleground category during this election cycle: Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia. The latter two owe their battleground status largely to personality-driven contests and poll-altering gaffes along the campaign trail.

Missouri's distinction as the nation's bellwether could make the race between incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Talent and Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill a political thermometer on issues that range from Iraq to stem-cell research.

The Missouri ballot also includes a proposed constitutional amendment to protect, in the state, all forms of stem-cell research allowed under federal law. In the past week, the amendment has sparked national headlines and recruited a number of famous faces, such as Michael J. Fox and Cardinals pitcher Jeff Suppan, into the debate.

Southern Races Could Bring Change

Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-Tenn.) is the dominating force in the Tennessee Senate race for the vacant seat of departing Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. If elected, Ford would be the state's first Democratic senator since 1990 and the South's first black senator since Reconstruction.

Multimillionaire and former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker is Ford's Republican opponent. Corker emerged from a nasty Republican primary in August, which put him somewhat off his game.

After revamping his campaign team in the fall, Corker has regained his support among Republicans in recent weeks. It's unclear if he will be helped by a controversial ad the Republican National Committee recently ran in Tennessee against Ford, which many observers saw as having racial overtones.

Will Allen's Gaffes Damage His Chances?

In Virginia, the Senate race garnered national headlines after incumbent Republican Sen. George Allen repeatedly called a Jim Webb volunteer of Indian-descent "macaca," and then again after he made jokes about ham sandwiches when his mother disclosed her Jewish ancestry.

Democratic challenger Jim Webb, a Naval Academy graduate and Navy secretary in the Reagan administration -- known for neither his fundraising nor campaigning abilities -- was also criticized for offensive remarks he made when an article he'd written in the '70s questioning the place of women in military academies surfaced.

Allen maintains a voting record closely aligned with the President's agenda. Allen has eyed a 2008 run for president, which is, in part, tied to the outcome of this race.

Allen is not the only one using 2006 to test the 2008 waters.

It would be hard to find a politico in the mix who won't in some way be using the Nov. 7 results as a way to gauge the political climate for the next presidential election, which is, so far, anyone's game.