Analysts Predict Split Congress, Political Gridlock

Nov. 5, 2006 — -- A Democratic House and a Senate that is virtually tied -- that's the consensus of political analysts canvassed by ABC News, who also predict two years of confrontation and gridlock.

"This election will not produce a mandate," says James A. Thurber, a political scientist at American University. "It will produce deadlock."

"It's been difficult to govern, really, since 2000," says ABC News' Cokie Roberts, a long-time observer of Congress. "The country has been split down the middle and the Congress has been split down the middle. There's no reason to believe that that will really change after Tuesday unless there's a huge Democratic wave."

All the analysts ABC News talked to predict a slim Democratic majority in the House, which would make running the chamber difficult for the person poised to be speaker of the House, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. Her task would be further complicated by the fact that many of the new lawmakers who will have given the Democrats their majority will be moderate-to-conservative Democrats from the South and West -- more conservative that the Democratic caucus as a whole.

In addition, Democrats have not run on a unified national platform -- other than opposition to the war in Iraq. But even then, there is no agreement on a plan for the future of U.S. troops in Iraq.

"If the Democrats gain control, does the war end tomorrow?" says Roberts. "Do the troops come home? Of course not."

Much will depend on President Bush's response to the changes in Congress, analysts say.

"If he proves as flexible and adaptable as President Reagan," who had to deal with a Democratic House for his entire eight years as president, "he could do some business with a Democratic Congress on issues ranging from immigration to national security," says Thomas E. Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. "But smart money says he will stay the course in style and substance."

"When President Clinton has a similar situation, divided party government, he reached out and worked with Republicans," notably on overhauling the nation's welfare system, says Thurber. "This president has to do that. But he doesn't even work with his own party at this point, so that's a big leap for this president."

Pelosi says she will reach out to Bush; congressional Democrats are likely to flex their investigative and oversight muscles to grill administration officials and their policies in hearings.

"One of Congress' chief jobs is overseeing the executive branch," says Roberts. "We have seen very little of that, whether it's on the Food and Drug Administration or the conduct of the war. I think you can expect to see a lot more attention paid by a Democratic Congress to what's happening in a Republican administration in the same way that you saw a Republican Congress overseeing a Democratic administration" during the Clinton presidency after Republicans took control of Congress in 1994.

"People like [Rep.] Henry Waxman [the California Democrat poised to be chairman of the House Government Reform Committee] already has an agenda," says Thurber, the American University political scientist. "He's going to have oversight hearings on contractor fraud and abuse in Iraq. Secondly, he's going to look at contractor fraud and abuse in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Third, he's going to look at the dysfunctionality of the Department of Homeland Security."

That could mean lots of subpoenas flowing from Capitol Hill to the White House and other administration departments. In at least one office, though, they're not likely to be obeyed.

"We'd sit down and look at it at the time," Vice President Cheney told George Stephanopoulos in an exclusive interview, but he would "probably not" testify under subpoena. "The president and the vice president are constitutional officers and don't appear before the Congress."

"If he proves as flexible and adaptable as President Reagan," who had to deal with a Democratic House for his entire eight years as president, "he could do some business with a Democratic Congress on issues ranging from immigration to national security," says Thomas E. Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. "But smart money says he will stay the course in style and substance."

"When President Clinton has a similar situation, divided party government, he reached out and worked with Republicans," notably on overhauling the nation's welfare system, says Thurber. "This president has to do that. But he doesn't even work with his own party at this point, so that's a big leap for this president."

Pelosi says she will reach out to Bush; congressional Democrats are likely to flex their investigative and oversight muscles to grill administration officials and their policies in hearings.

"One of Congress' chief jobs is overseeing the executive branch," says Roberts. "We have seen very little of that, whether it's on the Food and Drug Administration or the conduct of the war. I think you can expect to see a lot more attention paid by a Democratic Congress to what's happening in a Republican administration in the same way that you saw a Republican Congress overseeing a Democratic administration" during the Clinton presidency after Republicans took control of Congress in 1994.

"People like [Rep.] Henry Waxman [the California Democrat poised to be chairman of the House Government Reform Committee] already has an agenda," says Thurber, the American University political scientist. "He's going to have oversight hearings on contractor fraud and abuse in Iraq. Secondly, he's going to look at contractor fraud and abuse in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Third, he's going to look at the dysfunctionality of the Department of Homeland Security."

That could mean lots of subpoenas flowing from Capitol Hill to the White House and other administration departments. In at least one office, though, they're not likely to be obeyed.

"We'd sit down and look at it at the time," Vice President Cheney told George Stephanopoulos in an exclusive interview, but he would "probably not" testify under subpoena. "The president and the vice president are constitutional officers and don't appear before the Congress."