Giuliani, Clinton maintain leads in double digits

WASHINGTON -- Eight weeks before the opening Iowa caucuses, Rudy Giuliani is holding on to significant support among social conservatives and a double-digit lead in the Republican presidential field, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds.

The former New York mayor continues to defy predictions by conservative Christian leaders and others that his support of abortion rights and gay rights would make him unacceptable to "values voters." Just 7% of those Republicans who call themselves conservative on moral issues say they definitely won't vote for him.

Meanwhile, among Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton's formidable standing is unshaken despite escalating criticism by her rivals and disappointing reviews of her performance at last week's debate. The New York senator is backed by 50% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, compared with 22% for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and 15% for former New Carolina senator John Edwards.

The Democratic race "is a locomotive with Hillary Clinton's face on it," political analyst Charlie Cook says. "On the Republican side, it looks like the TV show Survivor."

Among key findings in the survey, taken Friday through Sunday:

•Despite Clinton's lead, she has significant vulnerabilities. Her unfavorable rating, 45%, is a dozen points higher than that of any other contender. Forty-four percent of those surveyed say they would definitely not vote for her; 40% rule out voting for Obama.

By 2-1, Democrats say they would rather nominate a candidate with "a strong desire to change the system" in Washington — Obama's fundamental argument — over one with "many years of experience getting things done."

•While Giuliani's standing has been relatively steady, now at 34%, the race to challenge him is roiling. Arizona Sen. John McCain moves into second place for the first time since June at 18%, edging former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson by a single point. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is fourth at 14% and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is at 6%.

"McCain obviously went through the valley of the shadow this summer" after a campaign shake-up and an immigration debate that put him at odds with many Republicans, says Charles Black, a strategist who supports the Arizona senator. Since Labor Day, "he's climbed his way back into the race."

Romney, still an unknown figure to four in 10 Americans, leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, where he hopes early victories will ignite his national prospects.

•Clinton and Giuliani seem closely matched for a general election: 59% of those surveyed would at least consider voting for Giuliani, 55% for Clinton. What's more, 59% say Giuliani has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have; 60% say that of Clinton. And 50% agree with Giuliani on the issues that matter most to them; 51% say that of Clinton.

In a head-to-head race, Clinton leads Giuliani 51%-45%.

Another national survey released Tuesday reported similar findings. A WNBC/Marist Poll taken last week gave Clinton a 29-point edge over Obama and Giuliani a 13-point lead over McCain. Clinton's support was lower among those called after the debate than before it.

Among Republicans in the USA TODAY poll, six in 10 say they want a nominee who is conservative or very conservative on moral issues. Two-thirds say Giuliani holds moderate or liberal views on those issues. Even so, nine of 10 are at least open to supporting him.

"Giuliani has exceeded my expectations in that he's held on to this lead so long" in the GOP field, says Scott Reed, manager for Bob Dole's 1996 campaign. "He's entering a crucial stage now with 60 days to go and advertising starts to take hold" until voting begins. He predicts rivals will begin using TV ads to define Giuliani as a liberal.