Iowa Independents Projected to Turn Out for Democrats

Jan. 3, 2008— -- Thousands more Iowa independent voters are expected to turn out for Democratic presidential candidates than Republicans at today's Iowa caucuses.

If polls and turnout forecasts are accurate, Iowa independents would be following the lead set by their national peers in 2006.

Nationwide, independents backed Democrats heavily in the watershed 2006 elections, in part out of a rejection of President Bush and a loud cry for change that has continued into the 2008 campaign, strategists in both parties agree.

Recent polls have shown the percentage of Iowa independents planning to participate in the Democratic caucuses is far higher than those who say they will caucus for Republicans. Turnout for the Democrats is projected to be higher than Republicans, perhaps double.

Tonight's caucuses in 1,781 precincts - located in fire stations, school auditoriums, church basements, and the like - start the process of winnowing the field of candidates who are pursuing the Republican and Democratic nominations for president.

The caucuses are the culmination of the countless rallies, town hall meetings and house parties the candidates have held in all 99 of Iowa's counties for the past year.

Because the caucuses represent the first hint of the 2008 election year's political mood, the trend among independents is a warning to Republicans about the general election, top national GOP strategists say.

It's also a sign the Democratic candidates' common agenda of ending the war in Iraq and easing pocketbook pressure is reaching beyond their base, campaign consultants in both parties say.

"It isn't always true that what energizes your base energizes the independent swing voters," said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster. "But the Democrats are finding their footing and finding that what energizes our base energizes independents."

Dominic Sweeney, an independent from Zwingle, plans to attend a Democratic caucus for the first time after what he describes as a series of problems representative of the nation's.

The retired computer programmer and direct marketing manager said he lost a retirement account worth $200,000, went without health insurance for years after being laid off and lost a nephew to a roadside bomb in Iraq, all within the past few years.

"I still consider myself an independent and I've caucused a couple times for Republican candidates," said Sweeney, 65. "But I'll switch to one of the parties if the candidates are talking my language on the issues I'm concerned with. That's what I'm doing this time."

Anyone who is legally qualified to vote in Iowa can participate in the caucuses. Voters must be identified on their registration as a member of the political party whose caucus they plan to attend. Caucusgoers can register to vote or change their party affiliation on their registration at their caucus location.

The Des Moines Register's late November poll showed 21 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers identified themselves as independents, a group that accounted for a surprising 40 percent in the Register's poll this week.

Meanwhile, the Register's poll showed independents at 20 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers, up from 13 percent in late November.

Another way to look at it is that a third of likely caucusgoers who identified themselves in the Register's most recent poll as independent said they planned to attend a GOP caucus, while two-thirds said they planned to attend a Democratic caucus.

Turnout for the Democrats' caucuses is also expected to be higher than for the Republicans'.

Iowa campaign strategists for Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have said turnout on caucus night of 150,000 is reasonable to expect, and would be an increase of about 20 percent over 2004 participation.

State GOP officials say publicly they hope participation exceeds the 2000 turnout of 86,000, while some campaign strategists are suspecting it will be lower.

As the nominating campaign gets under way, the appearance of swing voters preferring Democrats in Iowa is another sign the Republicans face challenges, said Ken Mehlman, former Republican National Committee chairman.

Among the symptoms of the GOP's plight, Democratic presidential candidates so far have raised $223 million for the 2008 campaign, compared with $152 million for Republican candidates.

"But there's two ways you can look at this data. One is you can try to explain it away, or you can worry about it," added Mehlman, Bush's 2004 re-election campaign manager and former White House political director.

"It seems to me the smart strategy is to worry, because if you're worried, you can take steps to fix it," said Mehlman, who is unaffiliated with any of the campaigns in 2008. "One of the mistakes I think we made in '06 a little bit was not enough folks got concerned early in the process that year about where the elections were going."

In 2006, the Democratic wave that helped the party retake majorities in Congress also reached Iowa. Democrats won the Iowa governorship and legislative majorities.

Independents played a pivotal role nationally in the 2006 Democratic elections. Some polls taken immediately before the midterms showed independents planned to support Democrats over Republicans by a margin of 2-to-1.

Lake, pollster for Delaware Sen. Joe Biden's 2008 presidential campaign, said independent voters are trending heavily toward Democrats in 2008, in part because they are younger than average and touched disproportionately by some of the key economic issues the party's contenders are discussing.

"They are buying houses, having children and trying to get by. They are heavy drivers, affected by high energy costs and are generally harder hit on the economic end," Lake said.

Tonya Kehoe is among Iowa independents planning to attend a Democratic caucus.

She plans to stand with the Democrats in her Iowa City neighborhood because of what she calls the financial squeeze she and her two-income family of three has felt.

"It's just been difficult to keep up in the last four years. It's really pinched us," said Kehoe, a 38-year-old lifelong Iowan who also will be attending her first caucus.

"I don't even know how to caucus," the community college teacher said. "But I can't afford not to participate this time."