Bush Road Map Lined With Potholes for '08ers

Jan. 28, 2008 — -- President Bush's agenda for his final year in office threatens to complicate the campaign efforts of the Republicans seeking to succeed him, with the president's political legacy leaving the GOP frustrated amid conflicting signals from voters.

None of the Republican candidates are eager to run on the Bush legacy. His 32 percent approval rating ensures that the candidates hardly want to associate themselves with the current president.

Yet the president and most of his major policies remain widely popular within the Republican Party. Many of the key policies the president plans to enumerate Monday night in his final State of the Union address -- making tax cuts permanent, a crackdown on government spending, a continued commitment to the war in Iraq -- are items that draw hearty endorsements from the major Republican contenders.

That creates a particular challenge for Republican candidates, who realize that voters inside out and outside of their party want a change of direction -- though generally not a dismantling of the Bush-era policies.

"Running to give us a third term for President Bush is not exactly what the doctor ordered," said Whit Ayres, a Republican consultant and pollster who is not affiliated with any of the presidential campaigns. "You have to run on a parallel track that carves out your own agenda without being overly critical of the incumbent."

The president is beleaguered politically, weakened by his lame-duck status and the Democrats' control of Congress. The downturn in the economy saps the president of one of his best political talking points, and even hopeful signs out of Iraq seem to hold little chance of resuscitating his political reputation.

Yet, as the bipartisan deal on an economic stimulus package last week makes clear, Bush still has the potential to shape policy in Washington. And the bully pulpit of the presidency allows him to continue to dictate the agenda, even in an election year where his replacement will be chosen.

"From expanding opportunity to protecting our country, we have made good progress," the president plans to say Monday night, according to excerpts released by the White House. "Yet we have unfinished business before us, and the American people expect us to get it done."

For the Democrats, Bush remains a convenient punching bag -- as well as the single most unifying force in their party. Hours before the president spoke Monday, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., tapped into the Democratic anger at Bush at a campaign stop in Connecticut.

"The president tonight will, as he has for the previous seven years, say that the state of the union is strong," Clinton said. "With all due respect Mr. President, come out on the road with me."

For the Republicans, however, the president must be handled more delicately. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has made "Washington is broken" a mantra of his campaign, railing against government excesses under Republican rule, even as he defends Bush's record on foreign and economic policy.

"Has the president done everything perfectly? Absolutely not," Romney told reporters Friday in Florida. "But is he a person I deeply respect for his conviction and his appreciation for the country and his desire to do what's right for it? I sure do."

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., has been sharper in his criticism of the president and the Republican establishment. For months, he's repeated his contention that while Republicans were elected to change the system, "Washington's changed us."

Yet even though McCain rose to political prominence as a Bush rival, in the 2000 campaign, he has aligned himself ideologically with the president. He supports making the president's first-term tax cuts permanent -- even though he voted against them in 2001 and 2003 -- and has remained one of the most stalwart supporters of the Iraq War.

His main criticisms of Bush focus on government spending, and early missteps he said have led to unnecessary casualties in the Iraq War.

"I am the only one who said we should drop the Rumsfeld strategy in Iraq," he said repeatedly on the stump.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has taken a sharper edge than his rivals. Though he's modulated his criticism as he courts conservative voters, he has issued scathing critiques of Bush's foreign policy and employs an economic populism that seeks to give voice to those left behind in the economy.

Asked Monday on CNN about what the "state of the union is," Huckabee said "It's troubled. I think anyone saying less than that would be dishonest."

The volatile nature of the primaries -- with each state dictating a fresh set of issues for the candidates to consider -- creates new obstacles for the Republicans who would be president. But once a nominee is chosen, he'll have a chance to more freely ignore Bush's agenda as the party turns to a new champion, Ayres said.

"There will be a lot of time between that point and the convention to unite the coalition and start reaching out to others," he said.