Endorsements: Do They Make a Difference?

LOS ANGELES, Jan. 31, 2008— -- Candidates for elective office brandish them as if they were Academy Awards or Olympic gold medals. They splash them onto their campaign leaflets. They recite them in television and radio commercials, and brag about them on the stump.

But how much are endorsements really worth?

Some political analysts, campaign strategists and even candidates themselves say, generally, they are of limited value and rarely persuade someone to vote for someone that person wasn't already at least inclined to vote for. But they say there are some rare circumstances when an endorsement can be a huge boost and even tip an election.

Endorsements by popular politicians were considered the most useful. Newspaper endorsements were viewed as having marginal value. Celebrity endorsements were regarded as practically useless, except as a way to attract people to a campaign event.

"I think, by and large, all endorsements have little (or) no impact," said Matthew Dowd, a former top campaign strategist for George W. Bush. "I think endorsements are helpful if they really reinforce a narrative -- positive or negative -- or are very counterintuitive that surprise people."

"It's my sense that the campaigns don't seek endorsements chiefly to change anyone's mind, but for three other main purposes: to confirm the judgment of their existing supporters, to gain access to fundraising and organizational networks and for the free media," ABC News director of polling Gary Langer said.

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., received two "major" endorsements this week. On Wednesday, the day after the Florida primary, former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani dropped out of the race and threw his support behind McCain. The following day, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger backed McCain.

Former McCain strategist Dan Schnur said those endorsements were effective not because they influence many voters -- he doesn't think they do -- but because they allowed McCain to dominate political news for two days after his Florida victory.

"The voters who Schwarzenegger impacts probably are already voting for McCain," Schnur said. "Schwarzenegger matters not because it's going to swing a lot of votes. It allowed McCain to continue dominating the public and media attention.

"Since Florida, (former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt) Romney hasn't been above the third paragraph in any story," he said. "Mitt Romney would have had to set himself on fire on the debate stage in order to get the headlines."

McCain was endorsed by Schwarzenegger at a news conference following their tour, along with Giuliani, of a Los Angeles company that manufactures solar roof panels. A small army of journalists attended the event.

"It's very clear that this is proof how much excitement solar energy can create," Schwarzenegger said with tongue in cheek. "I mean, look at this. There are 24 cameras out there, there are about a hundred journalists in here. I love that. Finally solar and renewable resources are getting this kind of attention."

In an interview for "Good Morning America Weekend," McCain said about endorsements, "It doesn't say 'I'm going to vote for McCain,' but (says), 'Hey, if so-and-so supports him, I'm going to have another look at him.'"

McCain credits the endorsements of Florida's popular Gov. Charlie Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez with helping him win the critical primary in that state.

Crist and Martinez endorsed McCain just a few days before the election. Crist's had the element of surprise, because he had been expected to remain neutral. Martinez, a Cuban-American, may have helped McCain with voter turnout and votes among that key group. Cuban-Americans voted overwhelmingly for McCain.

"A late endorsement always matters more," Schnur says. "If Crist and Martinez had endorsed McCain six months ago, there would have been endless stories about how McCain is struggling even with the support of the Florida political establishment."

McCain has also racked up dozens of newspaper endorsements, including the New Hampshire Union-Leader, two Boston dailies, the New York Times, Chicago Tribune and Philadelphia Inquirer. One endorsement -- in the Concord (N.H.) Monitor -- actually provided the ammunition for an attack ad that aired in New Hampshire. The ad noted that the Monitor called Romney "a phony."

At the GOP debate Wednesday at the Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., newspaper endorsements were actually wielded as part of a sharp exchange between McCain and Romney.

"If you get endorsed by the New York Times, you're probably not a conservative," Romney said.

"Let me note that I was endorsed by your two hometown newspapers who know you best, including the very conservative Boston Herald," McCain responded. "I'll guarantee the Arizona Republic will be endorsing me, my friend."

In fact, the Republic already had.

Dowd said Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., probably benefited from two somewhat unusual endorsements: television talk show host Oprah Winfrey, who announced her support for Obama and then campaigned for him, and the more recent one by Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass. Kennedy's was unexpected and came at a critical moment in the Obama campaign, when he was being assailed by former President Bill Clinton.

Schnur, who lectures on political science at the University of California at Berkeley, says newspaper endorsements have little effect on votes at the national level because people already have their own ideas about the candidates from a variety of sources. He said it can be more effective at the local level, when voters are unfamiliar with the candidates for state legislature or U.S. Congress.

An exception, he said, was the New York Times endorsement of McCain, which tended to undercut his efforts to establish his conservative bona fides and handed his rivals a convenient weapon to use against him.

"It's like Fox News endorsing somebody in the Democratic primary," Schnur said.

Then there are celebrity endorsements, such as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee regularly campaigning with actor Chuck Norris. Schnur said these are just a way to get voters who are fans of the celebrity to come to a political rally or speech.

"The greatest value of a celebrity endorsement is it brings people into the tent," he said.

But there is a risk to them: if the celebrity gets into trouble or is involved in a scandal, it can reflect badly on the candidate. That may be why the only celebrity McCain has ever trotted out is Wilfred Brimley, the septuagenarian actor perhaps best known for being a TV pitch man for Quaker Oats oatmeal.