Ex-White House players give insight on 2008 race

— -- As the presidential campaign speeds through February, USA TODAY asked two former White House insiders to discuss the state of the race. Democrat Mike McCurry, former spokesman for President Bill Clinton, and Republican Dan Bartlett, former counselor for President Bush, spoke Friday at the J.D. Power convention in San Francisco. Bartlett is not affiliated with a presidential candidate; McCurry backs Hillary Rodham Clinton. The forum was moderated by Susan Page, USA TODAY's Washington Bureau chief. Comments have been edited for space and clarity.

On John McCain's challenge

Dan Bartlett: John McCain has an opportunity, as much as possible, to consolidate his support amongst the Republican Party.

The trick for him will be to do it in an authentic way. One of the big challenges for Mitt Romney — and at the end of the day he couldn't get it over the finish line — was the authenticity issue, whether he was changing his position for some political convenience. That's something that they belabored over and fought back against.

The trick for John McCain, the reason he is attracting some independents and Democrats, is the fact of that 'maverick' title, his willingness to call it as he sees it.

During the primary process in Michigan, he kept to his positions on tax issues. He did it in Iowa when it came to ethanol. In the Florida campaign, and the issue was about national catastrophic insurance coverage, he didn't try to bend in the wind.

It will be important in the next several weeks and months that he stick to that level, and at the same time have an authentic outreach to conservatives.

On Hillary Clinton's challenge

Mike McCurry:There's always a tendency to second-guess and always a tendency to blame the people who were doing the strategy yesterday. They are probably going through some of that.

That always happens inside campaigns. But the resiliency of the group that she has around her and the loyalty that they have, the affection they have for her, will pull them through that moment. They will rally, figure out how they need to go.

They have a very tough road ahead of them. Because if you look through the month of February, and the states that are immediately coming up on the horizon — the Potomac primary (Tuesday in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia) and then Wisconsin — those are states that map more closely to what Obama's natural constituencies (are) looking at. They have a long way to go until March 4th, where they will get to Ohio and Texas. They go a whole month.

As Dan knows, a whole month is an eternity. Just a month ago was the Iowa caucus, and that seems like it was years ago. They will have to figure out how to have some victories or declare some victories in the month ahead.

On Barack Obama

Bartlett: When you start asking (Republicans) about Obama as an opponent, (they) say, "This is going to be tough, because of his ability and despite the fact that he's liberal in his voting record." Obama has a way to be very agreeable in his approach and demeanor, and he has struck a chord in the American public across party lines. That will be very formidable.

McCurry: Obviously, I support his opponent. But I would say this of him: He has awakened a belief that we can have a fresh and different dynamic in our national politics. That's very important. That's exactly the reason why the turnout has been so high.

Among 18- and 29-year-old voters, it doubled and tripled the number of people turning out to vote in these primaries and caucuses we have had on the Democratic side. I think a lot of that is because people really do believe there is a way to change the way we do business in national politics. That's a very important ingredient to contribute to our final success in the fall.

On McCain's choice for vice president

Bartlett: Knowing him a little bit on the personal level, Sen. McCain, he's going to put a lot of stock, I think, as my former boss said, as to who would best complement him in doing the job itself.

Sometimes we get too caught up in variations of "What state will they bring?" or "Will they do good in this debate or that debate?" At the end of the day, most Americans are smart enough to say, "Who makes a good vice president?" — not just a good candidate during the general election.

My sense is that McCain will take longer in that regard and pick nobody you are thinking about.

On the Democratic running mate

Susan Page:If Sen. Clinton is the nominee, will she choose Sen. Obama as her running mate?

McCurry:I would have answered that no on the grounds that putting that much change and history in front of the American voter would be a risky proposition. But the more I think about this — he'll have half of that convention hall, or nearly half. And how do you bring that politically together if you don't have, in fact, some fusion of these two very attractive candidates?

How will they make that work, and if that's remotely possible, if it gets tough and ugly after the end of the process, but I don't rule that out.

Page:If Sen. Obama is the nominee, will he choose Sen. Clinton as his running mate? Would she accept?

McCurry:That's a hard question. Honestly, knowing her very well and being very fond of her, it will be her decision to feel "Where can I make the biggest difference?" If she suddenly has to face the reality she's not going to be nominated, she'll want to do something that will help President Obama. I suspect that she'll go back to the Senate where "I am a leader and where I have enormous support on both sides of the aisle, and we are going to have to help the Democratic president." My guess is she would choose to go back and become a strong leader in the U.S. Senate.

On Bill Clinton's role

McCurry: Suddenly, right around Iowa and between the South Carolina primary, he was covered like a candidate. He had full-time press coverage, and none of the other spouses had that. I don't think he fully appreciated the impact that he would have.

He is, no matter how you look at it, an enormous asset for her campaign just because of his strategic ability, but also because of the things that he would be able to do if he was, in fact, the spouse of the president.

He would be an ambassador extraordinaire for the president, be able to do a lot of things around the world on behalf of the United States. As that story line develops, I think that's a plus for him to be involved. … His ability to go places, raise levels of support for her, raise money, talk to leadership in the party in different places. He will be an important part of consolidating the party around her.

Bartlett: Bill Clinton is a high-powered, very articulate campaigner who knew that there was enormous momentum building behind Obama. … He was going to do everything he personally could to stop it.

The problem was, he's been out of practice for a while, and he got too clumsy in his tactics, and it came back to bite the campaign pretty hard.

Is he an overall strategic asset? Yes, definitely at this stage of the campaign now. He's loved by Democrats and a very helpful tool.

The very thing he just described about an asset — the thing about what Bill Clinton will be doing as the first spouse is the very thing we need in our party to help energize the (Republican) base. What Bill Clinton is going to be doing with Hillary, and Clinton back in the White House, and what that means for the party and the country, is an asset for us, too.

On President Bush's role

Bartlett: There is a critical role that this president's played, despite all of the tension and the acrimony that might be in Washington, or even the political losses we suffered in '06.

He's a very formidable fundraiser. We have a national network of activists and fundraisers across the country that could be very advantageous for McCain. We do have a congressional race going on, and having the attention on that and focus on this definitional period is going to be important.

McCurry: This is the central strategic dilemma that McCain has. You know, he's running, and there's an incumbent president who two-thirds of the country disapprove of. He's conducting a war that two-thirds of the country opposes. How McCain separates himself from that policy and indicates he will lead the country in a different direction, without alienating the people that have great respect for the president, is very, very challenging.

Bartlett:He's (Bush) going to be very deferential to the nominee.

McCurry:He's doing important travel. He's obviously trying to move some places in the Middle East and elsewhere. I kind of thought he would get out of the country for the general election.