Dem takes over district long held by GOP

WASHINGTON -- The Democratic upset in former GOP House speaker Dennis Hastert's district strikes a blow at Republican efforts to retain seats in Congress and is another indication the GOP could face trouble in November, political observers say.

Scientist and first-time candidate Bill Foster beat out Jim Oberweis, a former unsuccessful candidate for Illinois governor and senator, to capture Hastert's district in suburban Chicago in a special election Saturday. Hastert lost the speaker's position in the Democratic takeover of Congress in January 2007 and resigned late last year.

"The wind is at the Democrats' backs," said non-partisan political analyst Stuart Rothenberg. President Bush's low approval ratings, the war in Iraq and growing concern about job losses and rising oil prices help to drive votes to Democrats, he said.

"This is a bad sign for Republicans for the future — unless and until the mood changes," Rothenberg said.

Foster will serve the remainder of Hastert's term, which ends in January. He and Oberweis are likely to face off again in November.

The congressional district had long been dominated by Republicans. Hastert held the seat for 21 years. Bush won 55% of the vote there in 2004.

Sunday, leading Democrats touted the Illinois victory as a sign of things to come. "If we can take Denny Hastert's seat back in Congress, you know people really want a change," Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean said on ABC's This Week.

Republicans downplayed the loss. "The one thing 2008 has shown is that one election in one state does not prove a trend," said Karen Hanretty, spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Both political parties are turning their attention to a slew of special elections to fill five House vacancies in the coming months, including a hotly contested battle in Louisiana for a seat held by Republican Richard Baker, who resigned last month. Republicans are defending three of the five open seats.

In a primary election Saturday for Baker's seat, Democratic voter turnout swamped the GOP. Charles Cook, publisher of The Cook Political Report, said the district, which includes Baton Rouge, has traditionally voted Republican. That may be changing, he said, because of an influx of Democratic voters who moved to the area after Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005. The general election is May 3.

Other upcoming special elections:

•An election Tuesday to fill the seat of late Indiana Rep. Julia Carson, a Democrat. Candidates include her 33-year-old grandson, Andre Carson, and Republican state Rep. Jon Elrod.

•A primary election April 8 to fill the seat of late Rep. Tom Lantos, a California Democrat who died last month.

•A vote April 22 in Mississippi to replace Republican Roger Wicker, who was appointed to the Senate in December.

•An election May 3 to fill the Louisiana House seat left vacant by Republican Bobby Jindal's election as governor.

After Saturday's win in Illinois, Democrats have a 232-198 advantage over Republicans in the House of Representatives. They also have the financial edge: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had a more than 5-1 advantage over its Republican counterpart in cash on hand for upcoming races, according to the most recent campaign-finance reports.

In addition, Republicans face the challenge of defending 25 open seats this fall; Democrats have six, according to The Cook Political Report.

Rhodes Cook, an independent political analyst, said every vote will count for the GOP in the upcoming contests. "Losing even more seats before we get to the general election makes the Republicans' job harder and harder," he said.

Contributing: Associated Press