Mr. Smith Takes a Rest? Democrats Eye Senate Supermajority

March 12, 2008 — -- Mr. Smith, prepare to take a rest. If Senate Democrats have their way, come January, they'll have a firm grip on the reins of congressional power in Washington.

Democrats need to pick up nine seats in the Senate to obtain a filibuster-proof majority and while that will be difficult, they have a numerical advantage simply because Republicans are more exposed.

There are 23 Republican seats up for grabs versus 12 currently held by Democrats.

Six Republicans have either resigned or won't seek re-election. Three of those open seats, in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado, are considered hotly contested.

Democrats have no resignations or retirements and are mounting full-scale assaults on the Republican-held seats in states like Oregon, Maine and New Hampshire -- reliably Democratic states in presidential elections.

But across the country, from New Jersey to Iowa to South Dakota to Arkansas, it is not that any given Republican Senate candidate lags in the polls; the problem for Republicans these days is that in many states they lack viable candidates.

Grand Woes for GOP?

Take Arkansas, for example.

The Natural State produced not one but two presidential contenders from Hope: former Republican Gov. Mike Huckabee and former President Clinton. And, arguably, there's a third Razorback in the race, given the candidacy of Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y.

The state favored President Bush over then-Vice President Al Gore in 2000 and went even more solidly for the sitting president over Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., in 2004.

Yet, despite the political uncertainty of the state, Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., who won his first term in a tight 2002 election, will walk to re-election, unopposed by a Republican.

And it's not just Pryor's luck either.

None of Arkansas' four Congress members will face a challenger from the other party.

"A lot of people were interested in running, but nobody was interested in doing it right now," said Arkansas state Republican Party executive director Karen Ray.

Despite the drought of candidates on the federal level, Ray insisted the party has a strong slate of Republicans up for state seats and will be a competitive for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in the presidential election.

"We had a tough year in 2006 and we are in a rebuilding phase," Ray said of a year in which a Democrat won the governor's office, giving the party unfettered control in Arkansas for the first time since 1994.

It is a similar story in Iowa, where Republican Rep. Steve King was thought to have the best shot against Democrat Sen. Tom Harkin, who is running for a fifth term and is a reliable Republican target.

Two Republicans are in the race but neither is considered a serious threat and King won't run challenge Harkin, meaning the GOP is essentially sitting out the Senate race this year.

No White Flags, Just Bad Luck

In other states, Republicans are simply having bad luck.

Anne Eastbrook had been recruited by Republicans to challenge Sen. Frank Lautenberg, D-N.J., but she dropped out of the race March 5 after suffering a ministroke.

Eastbrook will apparently not have any "long-term consequences," but could not continue campaigning in the short term.

In West Virginia, the only Republican who has filed to oppose Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller is former State Sen. Jay Wolfe. It's a rematch of the 2002 fight, which Rockefeller won handily.

In South Dakota, where Democrat Sen. Tim Johnson squeaked out a victory against then-Rep. John Thune, a Republican, by a mere 524 votes in 2002, Republicans have also had trouble finding a candidate.

Thune, the candidate Johnson narrowly beat in 2002, unseated then-Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004.

Granted, the situation in South Dakota is complicated.

Johnson is recovering from a strokelike event that nearly cost him his life in December 2006, but has been very public with his rehabilitation and now crusades for soldiers with traumatic brain injury. His compelling personal story will make him difficult to run against this year.

Just this week, former lieutenant governor and wealthy businessman Steve Kirby opted out of the race.

Each Race Its Own

At the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which is headed by Sen. John Ensign of Nevada and is in charge of Republican's election strategy, members realize there is a problem, but argue that each race is unique.

"Each of these cases had good reasons for not running and I don't believe they provide a snapshot of the recruitment story," said committee communications director Rebecca Fisher.

"We knew from the beginning of the cycle that this would be a tough map for Republicans since we are defending twice as many seats as Democrats, but we still expect to provide a strong challenge to Democrat incumbents in November. Lucky for us there are still many vulnerable Democrats up for re-election who will give us this opportunity," she said.

But of the 12 Democratic senators up for re-election, party insiders say they are concerned only about Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La.

Democrats, for their part, are trying not to appear giddy, but they are.

"There is a long way to go until November, but Americans in blue states and in red states want change and they are looking to Democratic candidates to deliver it. Our goal all along has been to re-elect every Democratic incumbent while picking up Republican-held seats, and we feel good today about where we stand," said Matthew Miller, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.