Can McCain Win Over Women Voters?

April 25, 2008 — -- He's perceived as a moderate Republican, his position on abortion has been more flexible than that of President Bush and he's surrounded by powerful women in his family.

Does Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., have the ability to attract women voters back to the Republican Party -- even if he ends up running against Hillary Clinton, the first female presidential nominee?

Or will the gender gap continue?

Women have been more likely than men to vote for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 1980.

McCain trails the New York senator and her Democratic rival Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois among female voters in the most recent polls.

And last week, he came under fire from some women's groups for skipping a vote on equal pay legislation supported by Clinton and Obama.

"Someone should tell McCain and the Senate Republican leadership that before the 2007 Supreme Court decision, this bill was the law of the land protecting women, people of color, older and disabled workers from wage discrimination," said Eleanor Smeal of the Feminist Majority.

McCain told reporters that he "would have opposed the bill since it could contribute to frivolous lawsuits harmful to business."

Yet equal pay has rarely been a high-priority issue in presidential elections and McCain's position is not likely to upset women voters, explains Ruth Mandel, director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

Abortion Stance

"Equal pay has never been high on the agenda," she said. "Look at the debates. How many times did equal pay come up as a question? Not once."

Although McCain now claims that he's strongly anti-abortion -- polls have shown most women support abortion rights -- his position on the issue was more nuanced in the past.

"But certainly in the short term, or even the long term, I would not support [a] repeal of Roe v. Wade," he told the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco in 1999.

McCain has the tentative support of the Republican Majority for Choice despite the fact that the group only endorses Republicans who support abortion rights.

"There is a lot we like about McCain," said the group's co-chair Jennifer Stockman. "While his voting record on abortion is not acceptable to us, we are looking forward to him coming up with some common sense language to deal with the issue."

Although Stockman predicts that McCain will win over more female voters than Bush because of his maverick independence, she says that he could be hurt in the general election when women find out about his stance on abortion.

"A lot of women will be surprised to learn that he's not pro-choice," she said. "There will be women asking a lot of questions."

He could also lose support on the other side, from those against abortion.

Guns Vs. Butter

"The fact that he hasn't emphasized the issue in his campaign means that strongly pro-life voters are not as eager to flock to him like they did to Dubya," said Michele Swers, an associate professor of government at Georgetown University.

His strong support of the Iraq War would seem to hurt him among women, because they were some of the first to oppose the conflict.

But if he can move the focus from the war to national security, that might draw support, says Swers.

"Bush was able to appeal to security moms. If McCain tries to make his campaign based on security, that he's better able to secure the country, that issue could help him."

In the end, his stance on economic issues is likely to have the greatest effect on attracting female voters, says Mandel.

"Whether there is enough money to pay the bills, pay for college, those kitchen-table concerns from health care to nutrition that hit close to home, are very important to women."