Will Obama's Move Win Over Whites, Anger Blacks?

April 30, 2008 — -- Has Barack Obama finally put what has perhaps become the biggest threat to his campaign -- the Rev. Jeremiah Wright -- behind him?

The Democratic candidate's strong denunciation of his fiery former pastor Tuesday was a necessary move to salvage his electability in the eyes of crucial superdelegates, say political consultants and advisers on both sides of the political spectrum.

Several referred to Obama's speech as his "Sista Souljah moment," referring to Bill Clinton's condemnation of the strident rap performer during the 1992 campaign, which broadened his appeal to centrist voters.

But it may not be enough to win over the crucial demographic of white, working-class and middle-class voters who have drifted in recent weeks to Hillary Clinton, as demonstrated by her victory in Pennsylvania last week.

"Rev. Wright was putting Obama's candidacy at risk," said Mitchell Moss, a professor of urban policy and planning at New York University. "He had to do a Sista Souljah on him. … You can't run for president and be associated with a guy attacking the U.S. He would be subject to questions about Wright throughout the rest of the campaign."

Moss predicts that Obama will gain more votes among white voters heartened by his forthrightness than he'll lose from black voters upset at his disloyalty to Wright.

"He had to prove that he was his own man and this was an important step," Moss said. "But nothing will shut down this issue until the next issue comes up."

The speech may help stop the exodus of white voters to Clinton, but Obama needs to do more to win over the so-called Reagan Democrats, says Republican consultant John Feehery.

"For voters on the fence or already in the Obama camp, this will help stop some erosion," Feehery said. "But folks who already have doubts won't be swayed by this. The Reagan Democrats are the most important voting bloc and Hillary does better with them. His chief problem is that he's a lot of talk and he needs to do something more than just rhetoric when it comes to Wright."

Other Republican advisers weren't impressed by the speech and predicted that the Wright controversy will be a major weapon in the general election if Obama is the Democratic nominee.

"One thing Americans can't stand are people who say one thing and do another within a 48-hour period," said Chris LaCivita, who helped create the "Swift Boat" ads that damaged John Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign, referring to Obama's recent praise of his pastor.

"This is an issue that is not going to go away no matter how many prepackaged phony speeches Obama makes," LaCivita said.

LaCivita says he's not currently engaged in any political ad campaign, but he clearly relishes the idea of taking on either Democratic candidate.

Describing the potential of uncovering more negative information on Obama, LaCivita says he is eager. "Like a good red wine, he just gets better with age," the GOP strategist said of Obama.

By taking such a strong stance on the pastor whom he recently said he "could no more disown" than his own white grandmother, Obama also risks alienating black voters.

Some prominent black leaders praised his speech.

"I thought it took a lot of courage for a man to have to say some unequivocal statements against someone that has been dear to him, his pastor," the Rev. Al Sharpton told ABC News. "And to say it, knowing that he's going to take a lot of flak from certain elements and certain portions of his base political constituency."

But Dr. Boyce Watkins, a finance professor at Syracuse University, says he's heard from many blacks who are "incredibly upset" with the candidate.

"For him to denounce so many things about Pastor Wright, one of the most respected pastors in Chicago, so that he can get this election, that is a textbook case of selling out," said Watkins. "It's like watching a mob movie where Tony Soprano has to whack his best friend because he's angered another mob family."

He predicts that many blacks will sit out the remaining primaries and the general election.

"They sure as hell aren't going to switch to Hillary. After all of the Clinton attacks on Obama, Bill no longer has his honorary blackness," Watkins said, referring to Clinton's popularity among blacks.

Yet Watkins says that the majority of the commenters on his blog were more angry at Wright and asked why the controversial pastor couldn't have kept quiet.

Wright's recent repetition of his controversial praise for Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan and his theory that the U.S. government may have created AIDS forced Obama's hand and he touched exactly the right tone in his denunciation of the pastor, said Doug Muzzio, a professor of political science at Baruch College.

"It was as plain a denunciation of Wright's extreme positions as you can imagine," Muzzio said. "Who would he be offending by denouncing Wright? It's demeaning to African-American voters to believe that."

But Muzzio predicts that the issue will be used by Obama's political enemies in the general election.

"This story is a millipede -- it's got a thousand legs."