Will Obama Claim Victory With Pledge Delegate Majority?
A weekly wrap on the state of the '08 presidential race.
May 18, 2008 — -- IN THE PAPERS:
Sen. Ted Kennedy remained hospitalized Sunday after suffering a seizure at his home in Cape Cod on Saturday.
In serious condition, but free from imminent danger, doctors are trying to determine what caused the 76-year-old's medical emergency.
Doctors concluded the Massachusetts Democrat did not suffer a stroke, as was first feared. By day's end Kennedy was watching the Red Sox and joking with family members and friends who were summoned to the hospital.
Word that Kennedy, the Senate's second-longest serving member and leader of one of America's most influential political dynasties, was rushed to Cape Cod Hospital, and then flown to Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, sent an earthquake across the political world.
Kennedy had a good night's sleep and will have a slow day on Sunday, reports ABC's Kate Snow.
An insurmountable delegate lead and powerful symbolism may provide Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., with an opportunity to claim victory over Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., this week.
When the results are tallied from the primary contests in Oregon and Kentucky this Tuesday, the Obama team will likely achieve an important milestone. Obama needs just 21 of the 103 delegates at stake in both contests to achieve a majority of pledged delegates.
However, Obama will not be able to reach the magic 2,026 number of delegates needed to secure the nomination because he holds 1,904 delegates overall, according to ABC News' estimate. The prospect that Obama might clinch the nomination this week could change if the Obama campaign has a large number of superdelegates tucked in their back pocket, or if enough uncommitted superdelegates are ready to move on, feeling like the people have spoken and their choice is clear.
If the standard for selecting a candidate is the "will of the people," then by any measure after Tuesday's vote -- majority of pledged delegates, popular vote and states won -- Obama has prevailed, the Obama campaign will argue.
Clinton may want to finish out the primaries, continuing to target pundits, for declaring what's left in the process is little more than a formality, and she may even say that the Florida and Michigan problem changes the winning delegate number. But a pledged delegate majority for Obama may be more efficacious in ending the race than anything that has happened thus far.
Clinton will also contend with a powerful symbolic moment, Tuesday, when Obama returns to the place where it all started. After a week of general election angling, Obama holds a Tuesday rally in Des Moines, Iowa -- his first return visit to the state that sent him on a trajectory to overpower Clinton for the nomination.
"There would be a certain symmetry if Oregon proves to be the state that puts Mr. Obama over the top, and he can indeed celebrate that victory in Iowa. It was his triumph in the caucuses in Iowa, of course, a state whose population is virtually all white, that first established him as a viable contender for the nomination," writes Larry Rohter of the New York Times.
Last week, Obama was asked flatly by a reporter if he will declare victory. "We will declare that we have the majority of pledged delegates," said Obama, according to ABC's Sunlen Miller.
By the time the nation wakes up Wednesday, Obama may have the pledged delegate majority, but Clinton is signaling that game is not over.
Speaking at the Makers Mark distillery in Lebanon, Ky., the former first lady said, "You don't quit on people and you don't quit until you finish what you started, and you don't quit on America," She added, "I'm running for president because I believe that I would be the best president and I'm the stronger candidate to beat John McCain."
She derided television pundits for declaring the race over and saying she should drop out. "Those are all people who have a job. Those are all people who have health care. Those are all people who can afford to send their kids to college. Those are all people who can pay whatever is charged at the gas pump. They're not the people I'm running to be a champion for," said Clinton.
With the nomination end in sight, fundraisers and surrogates for both Obama and Clinton have begun private talks about merging the two candidates' resources, looking ahead to the general election campaign," report Matthew Mosk and Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post.
The article has good juicy details of a Democratic National Committee fundraiser attended by top fundraisers from both camps. It's not all hugs and kisses between the passionate supporters, however, Mosk and Cillizza write.
"Top fundraisers have invested not only their time and money, but also their emotions in the primary battle. Major financial backers say the tensions have been particularly acute in recent weeks as frustrations have mounted in both camps.
"(Philadelphia lawyer and Clinton supporter Mark) Aronchick said that, in his own discussions, he emphasized the need for the senator from Illinois to stop describing Clinton and her backers as representing the politics of the past.
"'They need to understand how corrosive that has been among her supporters,' Aronchick said. 'For this to work, they need to correct any impression that he thinks we represent the old ways of doing things or Washington Beltway ways of doing things.'"
One top fundraiser for Obama, a veteran of several presidential campaigns who spoke about the private discussions on the condition of anonymity, said there are sensitivities among many of Obama's supporters, as well. The fundraiser added there is a high level of resentment that Clinton has continued to campaign, even though her chances of securing the nomination are remote. Many are unhappy about the idea of having to make room for members of Clinton's finance team, who had "picked the wrong candidate."
The man the Democrats will face this November, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., joked about his age and poked fun at Democrats in two sketches on the season finale of NBC's "Saturday Night Live."
"What should we be looking for in our next president?" joked the presumptive Republican presidential nominee in a mock political ad. "Certainly someone who is very, very, very old." Bret Hovell, who follows the McCain campaign for ABC News writes up the "SNL" appearance on Political Radar.
The funniest political moment of the night was the mock NBA playoff commercial, "There Can Only Be One."
"McCain's national finance co-chairman has stepped down, becoming the latest adviser to leave the Republican's presidential campaign because of ties to lobbyists," the AP reports. "Former Texas Rep. Thomas G. Loeffler, one of McCain's key fundraisers, resigned after the campaign last week instructed staff to disclose all lobbying ties and to make certain they are no longer registered as lobbyists or foreign agents."
McCain spent much of last week trying to mend fences with conservatives (a speech to the NRA), while carefully distancing himself from President Bush (discussions on climate change). It's a delicate balancing act; McCain needs to pick up a sufficient number of the party's conservative base in November and win independents who loath the idea of a candidate who will continue Bush policies.
Politico's Jonathan Martin doesn't see McCain wavering all that much from "the right's prized principles: tax cuts, and less spending, market solutions and tax incentives, judges who will strictly interpret the law, and stay-the-course approach on Iraq.
"In a delicious piece of irony, many dispirited Republicans, devastated by Tuesday's special election loss in Mississippi, now believe their savior to be John McCain — a not-so-constant conservative many of them also have long intensely disliked. The logic: McCain, the vaunted maverick, can move the party away from President Bush and reinvent a Republican brand that, at the moment, is in tatters," writes Martin.
McCain drew heat from Clinton about economic policy over the weekend. In Frankfort, Ky., on Saturday, Clinton slammed McCain's tax proposal, arguing it would hurt middle-class families and favor the well-off. "You really have to work hard to have a tax plan that is more tilted toward the wealthy than President Bush's tax plan, but somehow John McCain has figured out a way to do it," she said, per ABC's Eloise Harper, tracking the Clinton campaign. "In the end, Sen. McCain's economic policy boils down to this: Don't just continue driving our nation in the wrong direction. Put your foot on the accelerator and gun it. "
In other news...
President Bush dodged questions about whether he was referring to Barack Obama when he likened those who would negotiate with "terrorists and radicals" to appeasers of the Nazis. The president's remarks, given last Thursday in a speech to the Israeli Parliament, created a storm with the Democratic establishment rushing to defend their likely presidential nominee. Obama too, who believes in direct communication with countries, like Iran and Syria, interpreted the remarks as directed toward him. Bush told NBC News on Sunday, "You know, my policies haven't changed, but evidently the political calendar has," said Bush, while avoiding answering whether he was talking about Obama.
And…
Clinton sat through an hour-long sermon, on the sin of committing adultery, at State Street United Methodist Church in Bowling Green, Ky., per ABC's Eloise Harper.
SUNDAY SHOW RECAP
The Democrats' win in a special election held in Mississippi last Tuesday will probably be remembered as the most significant political event last week. The major Sunday political shows featured candid talk from Republican leaders about their party's brand problem.
On CBS's "Face the Nation," Republican strategist Ed Rollins expressed concern that the Republican strategy in Mississippi's first congressional district contest focused on national issues at a time when voters are dissatisfied with Republicans in Washington.
Defeated Republican Greg Davis ran advertisements linking Democrat Travis Childers to Obama in conservative counties in the district. "Local campaigns really should be about local issues," said Rollins. "You can nationalize them, as the Democrats probably can this election, against President Bush, who is obviously not popular. But when you're running congressional races, it's really about issues that matter to the local people. And I think, to a certain extent, we have, kind of, lost our way. We think we have to run every campaign from Washington, with Washington consultants."
Appearing on the same program, Republican Florida Governor Charlie Crist said the GOP needs to reach across the aisle to work with Democrats on issues like health care and higher pay for school teachers. He also said Republicans need to embrace their core values. "We need to, as a party, go back to our roots, if you will, make sure we understand we're the party of Abraham Lincoln, the party of Teddy Roosevelt, the party of Ronald Reagan, who had that wonderful optimism that people looked toward and were excited about and understood that there was greater hope, greater opportunity for the future."
On ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos," House Republican Leader, Rep. John Boehner of Ohio, expressed confidence in the man responsible for the election of Republicans to the House, Oklahoma Rep. and NRCC chairman Tom Cole.
Conceding the '08 landscape is difficult for the GOP, Boehner talked about the need for Republicans to position themselves as the party of "change." "What I've been preaching to my colleagues now for over a year is that we have to be the agents of change. We have to prove to the American people we can deliver the change that they want and the change that they deserve. And whether the issue is the rising cost of health care, rising cost of gasoline prices, food prices, we have an agenda that will deliver that change that Americans want. And all they've gotten from the Democrats are a lot of broken promises."
On "Fox News Sunday," Karl Rove called for Republicans to unite around kitchen table issues, like tax cuts and health care, and draw sharp contrasts with Democrats on the Iraq war. Rove also said he doesn't know if same-sex marriage will be as important an issue this year as it was in 2004 and 2000.
Also on "This Week," Delaware Democratic Sen. Joe Biden reacted to Bush, saying talking to enemies of the U.S. is like appeasement. "It was outrageous," said Biden. "You know, he said we ought to call things for what they are. Well, what this is is raw, raw politics, demeaning to the presidency of the United States of America. I mean, literally, imagine what our friends, even our foes in the capitals from Paris to Tokyo thought, seeing the president of the United States in the Knesset, attacking another senator."
Former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo, in love with the Democratic "dream ticket" possibility, made an appearance on CBS's "Face the Nation." "Any of the people who are voting for Hillary, any of the people who are voting for Obama. You want them both. Why not use both of them? Now, both of them have been confronted with the question, would you be the vice president if your opponent won the presidency? And Obama said he would not rule it out. He would consider it when the time came. And Hillary said she would not rule it out, she would consider it when the time came," said Cuomo.
On NBC's "Meet the Press," Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va., explained why he thinks the Democratic presidential race should go forward and why he's not endorsing Obama or Clinton. He expressed confidence that either candidate can turn Virginia into a Democrat state this year. Webb also said he's not interested in being vice president and would discourage the candidates from asking him.
WEEK AHEAD:
Kentucky and Oregon hold Democratic primaries on Tuesday.
Candidates must submit their monthly financial reports to the Federal Election Commission on Tuesday.
After making his first visit to Michigan last Wednesday since signing a pledge not to campaign there for the primaries, Obama continues his pivot toward the general election with a visit to Florida. Obama agreed last fall not to campaign in Michigan and Florida after both states violated DNC rules by holding early primaries. Obama is scheduled to spend three days in the Sunshine State, with stops in Tampa, Orlando, Palm Beach County and Miami.
McCain makes his medical records public on Friday.