How the Numbers Stack Up As Primaries End

June 1, 2008 — -- Confused by Saturday's Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting?

Not sure how Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., can be on the verge of wrapping up the nomination even as Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., is expected to win another primary on Sunday?

Think this is the end, but not sure?

Here is a simple list of things to keep in mind as we enter the final 48 hours of the Democratic nominating contest. Numbers 1-10 explain the math. Letters A-E are nonmathematical things at play.

*All delegate numbers are as of the start of the day on Sunday*

1. Both the Florida and Michigan delegations will be seated in full at the Democrats' convention in Denver with each delegate limited to half (1/2) a vote. LINK

2. Clinton gained 94.5 delegates, according to ABC News' estimate, under Saturday's agreement.

3. Obama gained 65.5 delegates, according to the ABC News' estimate under Saturday's DNC agreement.

4. The number of delegates needed to secure the Democratic presidential nomination changed yesterday from 2,026 to 2,118.

5. ABC News estimates that Obama has 2,050.5 delegates. (That's 67.5 delegates shy of victory.)

6. ABC News estimates Clinton has 1,872.5 delegates.

7. There are 86 pledged delegates up for grabs in Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana.

8. Team Obama expects to win around 38 delegates from the final 3 contests, putting them 30 superdelegates away from the nomination.

9. Roughly 200 superdelegates remain uncommitted.

10. The person who reaches 2,118 delegates will become the presumptive Democratic nominee.

A. Clinton supporters are just as loud and enthusiastic as Obama supporters. LINK

B. Clinton knows the end is near. LINK

C. A large number of uncommitted superdelegates may commit on Monday and Tuesday.

D. What's RED is BLUE, what's BLUE is RED LINK

E. Clinton's nuclear option -- The Credentials Committee, which meets August in Denver. LINK

IN THE PAPERS:

With protesters disrupting the proceedings during the public vote, Democratic Party officials defied Clinton's wishes Saturday, agreeing to seat the full delegations from Florida and Michigan to the August nominating convention, but with only half a vote.

"The deal was reached after committee members deliberated for nine hours, including three where they met privately and argued fiercely over their eventual deal, according to several people inside. They voted in front of a raucous hotel ballroom that frequently interrupted proceedings and reflected deep divisions within the party," write the Associated Press' Nedra Pickler and Beth Fouhy.

Top Clinton aide Harold Ickes lead the dissent among the Clinton-leaning committee members, expressing particular concern about the way the DNC allocated delegates from Michigan, where Obama's name didn't even appear on the ballot.

"This motion will hijack -- hijack -- remove four delegates won by Hillary Clinton," said Ickes. "This body of 30 individuals has decided that they're going to substitute their judgment for 600,000 voters," he added in a fiery assault on the Michigan Democratic Party idea of giving Clinton 69 Michigan delegates and Obama 59. Ickes wasn't done, either. One final bolt of lightening: "Mrs. Clinton has told me to reserve her right to take this to the Credentials Committee."

The Credentials Committee, of course, meets in August at the convention.

Storming ahead, an Obama advisor signaled their campaign is not worried about Ickes' warning.

Will Obama wait for a concession call from Clinton before claiming victory?

"He's not going to wait by the phone like a high-school girl waiting for a date," said advisor Anita Dunn, per ABC's Teddy Davis and Karen Travers. "That's not Barack Obama."

Associates of Clinton admit she's come to terms with "the near certainty that she would not win the nomination," report Adam Nagourney, Carl Hulse and Jeff Zeleny in Sunday's New York Times.

"Assuming Mr. Obama reaches the number of delegates and superdelegates he needs to secure the nomination in the coming week, Mrs. Clinton will be faced with three options, associates said: to suspend her campaign and endorse Mr. Obama; to suspend her campaign without making an endorsement; or to press the fight through the convention. Several of Mrs. Clinton's associates said it was unlikely she would fight through the convention, given the potential damage it would do to her standing in the party, which is increasingly eager to unify and turn to the battle against Mr. McCain."

More from the trio, "Her associates said the most likely outcome was that she would end her bid with a speech, probably back home in New York, in which she would endorse Mr. Obama. Mrs. Clinton herself suggested on Friday that the contest would end sometime next week."

The London Telegraph reports that Obama aides are drawing up a plan to have the former first lady assume a cabinet position in an Obama administration and take up health care reform under plans for a "negotiated surrender" of her '08 bid. "Senior figures in the Obama camp have told Democrat colleagues that the offer to Mrs. Clinton of a cabinet post as health secretary or to steer new legislation through the Senate will be a central element of their peace overtures to the New York senator."

According to more Telegraph sources, Clinton would be joined in the cabinet "alongside two other former presidential rivals: John Edwards, who is seen as a likely attorney general; and Joe Biden, who is a leading contender to become secretary of state."

In a surprise move, announced on a day when it was certain not to be the biggest story of the day, Barack and Michelle Obama resigned their membership from Trinity United Church of Christ on the South Side of Chicago. The Obamas' church of more than 20 years, Trinity United had become a major problem for the Democratic hopeful after a video loop of controversial sermons delivered by former pastor Jeremiah Wright were seen on television and the Internet. New trouble emerged after a fiery guest sermon was delivered at Trinity by a white catholic preacher.

"Obama had been in discussions about resigning with his church's new pastor, the Rev. Otis Moss, before the latest controversy, which involved a longtime friend of Obama's, Father Michael Pfleger, mocking Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., just last Sunday form the church's pulpit, using racially charged language, to the apparent delight of the congregation," write ABC's Jake Tapper, George Stephanopoulos and Sunlen Miller.

During a press availability in Aberdeen, S.D., Obama explained why he left the church. "It's a decision that Michelle and I had discussed for quite some time after the National Press Club episode. I had discussed it with Rev. Moss. We had prayed on it. We had consulted with a number of friends and family members who are also connected to the church. And so, this is not a decision I come to lightly, and frankly, it is one that I make with some sadness," he said, according to ABC's Miller.

Besides the personal difficulty his membership caused, Obama said news organizations have been harassing members and looking through sermons to the detriment of the congregation. "It's not fair to the other members of the church who seek to worship in peace," he said.

Meanwhile, Obama's Iraq feud with Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., escalated over the weekend. Obama pounced on remarks McCain made Friday, saying that the U.S. had drawn down troops to pre-surge levels in Iraq. In fact, there are currently more U.S. troops in Iraq than since before the surge started.

At a Saturday town hall in Rapid City, S.D., Obama said, "A leader who pursues the wrong course, who is unwilling to change course, who ignores the evidence. Now, just like George Bush, John McCain is refusing to admit that he's made a mistake."LINK

McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds shot back in a statement: "Barack Obama is ignoring facts, he irresponsibly refuses credible evidence on the ground proving American troops have surged toward significant gains in Iraq and it proves he is just not ready to be commander in chief. For over 874 days, which includes the entirety of the 'surge' strategy, Barack Obama has refused to visit Iraq, see the conditions on the ground, and meet with Gen. Petraeus, and it raises questions about whether his campaign is based on conceding defeat in Iraq, no matter what progress our troops make there."

In other news ... Todd S. Purdum has a long feature in this month's Vanity Fair of former President Clinton's post-White House work. The piece drew criticism from the Clinton campaign on Sunday. Read it HERE.

The Virginia Republican Party selected former Gov. Jim Gilmore as its nominee for U.S. Senate. The former '08 presidential hopeful defeated Robert Marshall by a margin of less than one percentage point. Gilmore will face likely Democratic nominee former Gov. Mark Warner in the fall.

SUNDAY SHOW RECAP

Arguing that Clinton has won more votes than any Democratic presidential primary candidate in history, campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe, appearing on ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos," warned that the former first lady will look at all options after the final primaries in South Dakota and Wyoming on Tuesday.

"Hillary has gotten the more popular vote. It is very close in the delegates, less 100 out of 4,200. But we, as Democrats, have got to realize we have to win the WhiteHouse. Hillary Clinton easily wins Florida, easily wins Ohio, easily wins Arkansas. Polls have us leading in Nevada, in Missouri, West Virginia, Kentucky. In fact, the poll out two days in North Carolina, a state that we lost in the primary -- today, Hillary Clinton wins North Carolina. It will be a huge sweep for the Democrats with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket," McAuliffe warned.

He expressed outrage at the DNC's decision to accept a formula developed by the Michigan Democratic Party, which basically split the state's delegates even for Clinton and Obama. Clinton won the contest and Obama's name did not appear on the ballot. "I have never, in the history -- and I've been involved with this party for 30 years, and I was the last chairman of this great party -- I have never seen a party take away votes from someone who earned them," he said.

"It wasn't fair. It is not grounded in principle, and this is not the Democratic Party that I know. If you earned the votes, you should get them."

Appearing on the same program, Obama communications director Robert Gibbs predicted the party will have a nominee by the end of the week. He described Obama's decision to leave Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago as "a deeply personal, not political decision."

DNC chairman Howard Dean argued the party showed unity by coming together to adopt the exact proposals requested by Michigan and Florida. "This is an extraordinary day for the Democratic Party. We have basically come together. The final votes on these issues were not along partisan lines -- that is, not all the Clinton people didn't vote one way and all the Obama people didn't vote another way," said Dean.

On CBS's "Face the Nation," Clinton advisor Mandy Grunwald argued Clinton has the stronger case for the nomination. "So, the question will be what the superdelegates decide. And we have a very strong case to make to them, that over 17 million people have now voted for Hillary Clinton, the deepest and broadest coalition," she said. Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, who appeared on the show moments later, echoed the same message.

Also on "Face the Nation," Obama supporter Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill said she thinks Clinton "will do the right thing" once Obama has enough delegates for the nomination.

On NBC's "Meet the Press," former White House press secretary Scott McClellan took questions about the intention of his bombshell book about the Bush administration. McClellan spoke about the "permanent campaign" in Washington.

"We got into the Iraq war, we went into it in a way that, as I say in the book, which was based on a 'permanent campaign' mentality. It wasn't as open and forthright as it could be, and I think that really hurt us later. And when you go to war, you have to build bipartisan support, and then you have to sustain it. We couldn't sustain it because we were not open in the beginning, and the president could not go back and admit some of the mistakes that were made early in the, early in the buildup to the war," said McClellan.

"And I think that -- I think that that hurts our troops the most because they deserve as much bipartisan [support]."

WEEK AHEAD:

McCain makes 9:30 a.m. ET remarks to America's pro-Israel lobby at the AIPAC conference in Washington, D.C. on Monday. Obama and Clinton are scheduled to speak Wednesday at the 8:45 a.m. ET plenary.

Montana and South Dakota vote on Tuesday, closing the Democratic primaries and caucuses. Polls close in South Dakota at 9:00 p.m. ET. Polls close in Montana at 10:00 p.m. ET.