New Poll Shows Obama Lead in Crucial States

Sept. 11, 2008— -- If there are three states that are the most crucial in the November presidential election, they will likely be Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. Since 1960, no candidate has ever won the presidency without winning two of these three battleground states.

Republican Sen. John McCain is leading handily in Florida and Democratic Sen. Barack Obama has narrow leads in Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to polls released today by Quinnipiac University.

While McCain has surged in national polls, the ones that really count are those in swing states that will decide which candidate wins the votes in the Electoral College. As Democrat Al Gore demonstrated, it is possible to win the popular vote and lose the election.

The Quinnipiac poll gives Obama a 5 percent edge, 49-44, in Ohio. Obama has an even narrower 48-45 lead in Pennsylvania, while McCain has comfortable 50-42 margin in Florida.

"It's a close race. It's likely to go down to the wire," ABC News' senior Washington correspondent, George Stephanopoulos, told "Good Morning America" today.

"If you're going to pay attention to one state this year, it's got to be Ohio," Stephanopoulos said. "No Republican has won the presidency without winning Ohio."

Watch Charles Gibson's exclusive interviews with Gov. Sarah Palin tonight on "Nightline." Tune in Friday for more on "Good Morning America" at 7 a.m. ET. See more on "World News" and "20/20," which will broadcast a one-hour special edition at 10 p.m. ET/9 p.m. CT.

It was a state that President George W. Bush won by a mere 100,000 votes four years ago, and both Obama and McCain are concentrating on Ohio this year.

"The Obama campaign has ramped up their turnout operation, particularly in the big cities and college campuses, but the McCain campaign hopes that the pick of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin will energize their voters, particularly in southern Ohio," Stephanopoulos said. Sen. Hillary Clinton, who won the Democratc primary in Ohio, will campaign for Obama in the state this weekend.

A new Time/CNN poll surveyed several other key states and found both candidates were holding their own in states their parties won in previous elections. Obama was leading in New Hampshire (51-45) and in Michigan (49-45), both states won by Democrat John Kerry four years ago.

McCain is ahead in Virginia (50-46) and in Missouri (50-45), states Bush won in 2004.

Video Surfaces of McCain Release From POW Camp

The fight for voters was suspended by the two campaigns today to mark the seventh anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks. Instead of attacking each other, McCain and Obama joined forces for a solemn wreath laying ceremony at Ground Zero, the sight of the suicide airplane attacks on the Twin Towers.

"We will put aside politics and come together to renew that unity, to honor the memory of each and every American who died, and to grieve with the families and friends who lost loved ones," said a joint statement released by the two campaigns.

On Friday, the two sides are expected to resume their salvos on everything from economic policy to lipstick smears.

In what may be an emotional boost for McCain, a Swedish reporter found in his files a film clip of McCain's release from a Vietnamese prison.

The brief video shows McCain stepping off a bus with other prisoners with a pronounced limp, but not using crutches. It then shows McCain standing in a lineup when his name is called. He walks up to salute and shake hands with U.S. military officers.

But McCain and Obama will likely be overshadowed yet again by Palin, the Republican vice presidential candidate who has stolen the limelight ever since she was nominated earlier this month.

The spotlight will be on her today and Friday as she sits down for her first interview since the nomination. That interview will be conducted by ABC News' anchor, Charlie Gibson.

"She's been cramming for this... There's an army of former Bush aides out there working with her in every free moment between her stump speeches," Stephanopoulos told "GMA."

Among Palin's chief tutors are senior McCain adviser Nicolle Wallace and Tucker Eskew, a former Bush aide and longtime GOP strategist.

It could be a high stakes moment for Palin, who so far hasn't strayed from the speech she gave at the Republican National Convention.

"She's got to show that she can handle the questions, show that she's ready for this job of vice president, and show familiarity with the issues," Stephanopoulos said.

Obama on Letterman

Democrats will be poring over her answers looking for opportunities to pounce and puncture her instant popularity, which has buoyed the McCain candidacy.

Palin will also attend a deployment ceremony for her son's infantry unit, the 1st Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 25th Infantry Division, at Fort Wainwright in Alaska.

Obama went on the "the David Letterman Show" Wednesday night to try to laugh off the GOP demands that he apologize for using the phrase "lipstick on a pig." Obama made the comment referring to McCain's claim that he would bring change to Washington, but Republicans insisted it was an insult to Palin, who had earlier compared herself to a pitbull with lipstick.

Obama shrugged off the accusation, telling Letterman it was the political "silly season."

But "silly season" diversions are not good for Obama, who was put on the defensive by the McCain camp's attack over his phrasing.

"The silly season is not good for Barack Obama," Stephanopoulos said. "Every day that is about the campaign or personalities is a losing day for Obama."

There is a downside in the daily attacks for McCain as well, Stephanopoulos said.

"The Obama campaign hopes that they may start to chip away at John McCain's maverick record and his reputation for integrity," he said.