A Closer Look At New Hampshire's Track Record of Predicting Presidents
On Tuesday, New Hampshire will hold its 100th primary.
— -- The first New Hampshire primary was held on March 14, 1916, and on Tuesday the Granite State will celebrate the 100th anniversary of its nominating contest.
The New Hampshire primary has long been the second major testing ground for candidates following the Iowa caucuses.
So who has the best track record of predicting presidents? Let’s take a look at the contests since 1976.
New Hampshire Republicans may not have a crystal ball, but they hold a slightly better track record than their Democratic counterparts.
Since 1976, New Hampshire has given the nod to five candidates who eventually went on to win their party’s nomination out of the seven contests in that period. Two of those have gone on to become president: Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush.
On the Democratic side, New Hampshirites have given a first-place finish to five eventual nominees out of eight contests, but just one became president: Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Former President Bill Clinton was dubbed "The Comeback Kid," after his second-place finish in the Granite State in 1992. Despite his loss, he became the first candidate to win the Presidency in the last 40 years to lose both Iowa and New Hampshire.