Divisions Mark Trump's Popularity; Bases Are Broader for Carson, Fiorina (POLL)

— -- A growing gender gap, sharp racial polarization and a less-educated base of support all pose potential limits on Donald Trump’s popularity – challenges largely avoided by Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina, the two lesser-known figures in the triumvirate of non-traditional GOP contenders.

The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll also finds Trump with no clear ideological home and very weak popularity outside his political party. Carson and Fiorina are better positioned on these, as well. While Trump’s better known, their support profiles are much broader.

See PDF with full results, charts and tables here.

Americans overall see Carson favorably rather than unfavorably by an 18-point margin, 45-27 percent. (The rest have no opinion). There’s a closer division on Fiorina, 35-30 percent, +5. Trump, by contrast, is seen favorably by 35 percent of Americans but unfavorably by 60 percent – a 25-point net negative score.

Trump’s favorability ratings have been essentially unchanged since midsummer. Carson’s and Fiorina’s haven’t been tested in previous ABC/Post polls.

Trump does far better among Republicans, 62-34 percent, favorable-unfavorable; that +28-point rating within the GOP is similar to Fiorina’s +20 points (47-27 percent). But both are surpassed by Carson, seen favorably by 68-14 percent among Republicans, +54 percentage points.

It’s outside the party that Trump falters in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. Independents see him unfavorably by a 29-point margin, Democrats by a vast 64 points. Carson and Fiorina, by contrast, are +23 and +6 points, respectively, among independents, and -14 and -9 among Democrats.

Don't knows

One factor is that Carson and Fiorina are much less well-known than Trump, with “no opinion” results of 28 percent for Carson and 35 percent for Fiorina, vs. Trump’s 5 percent. That said, Fiorina’s favorability rating is the same as Trump’s, and Carson’s is 10 points higher. It’s only in unfavorability that Trump’s rating exceeds theirs – and widely so.

That means that while Carson and Fiorina have to win over undecideds, Trump’s tougher task is to turn around those who now see him negatively. Put another way, for Carson and Fiorina to have overall ratings as poor as Trump’s, everyone who has no opinion of them now would have to end up in the unfavorable column. (Plus some, in Carson’s case.)

Favorability is one of the basic measures of a public figure’s popularity. A candidate can win support even without achieving personal popularity, but it’s a tougher path. And those without favorability may lack cartilage when the road gets rough.

Ideology

Results by political ideology, rather than partisanship, if anything tell a less promising story for Trump. His favorable rating among conservatives is +14 points; Carson’s soars to +47, while Fiorina’s is +23. Among moderates they’re -44, +9 and even, respectively; among liberals, Trump’s -58, compared to -9 and -13.

These results suggest that Carson’s a darling of conservatives, while both he and Fiorina do comparatively well among moderates – with no clear ideological home for Trump.

Gender, education and race

Trump, who’s made remarks seen as insensitive toward women, has a 28-point gender gap in his favorability rating among all adults and a 34-point gender gap among Republicans. Gender gaps for Carson and Fiorina are smaller, and in most cases, non-significant.

Trump, moreover, has seen his gender gap in favorability grow since spring – among all adults, from a non-significant 2 points in May to 19 points in July and 28 points now. Just among Republicans, Trump’s gender gap has grown from 18 points in July to 34 points now – entirely because of gains for Trump among men, with no change among women.

Trump also continues to rely on less-educated adults for his support – among all adults, a 22-point gap between those who have and have not earned college degrees; and among Republicans, an even wider 46-point education gap. That’s a challenge for him particularly because education is a strong predictor of turning out to vote.

Finally, Trump’s favorability is net -13 points among whites but -53 points among nonwhites (including -65 points among Hispanics), a 40-point gap overall. The comparable racial and ethnic gap for Carson is 28 points, and for Fiorina, 15.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cell phone Sept. 23-27, 2015, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,000 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 4 points. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by SSRS of Media, Pa. See details on the survey’s methodology here.