Global conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza loom over Biden's State of the Union: ANALYSIS

President Joe Biden will deliver his third State of the Union against a backdrop of international conflicts that have sharply divided Congress and the American people, making the stakes for a president's most scrutinized domestic and foreign policy address even higher.

As he shifted into campaign mode in 2023, Biden spent little time discussing his foreign policy from the bully pulpit -- focusing instead on his domestic agenda.

But now, with his reelection in the balance, Biden is grappling with Ukraine's stymied battle against Russia's invasion and the refusal by House Republicans to fund Kyiv's fight, as well as his struggle to win a temporary cease-fire in Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza -- a conflict that has triggered tensions with a critical ally and pitted the convictions of key Democratic voter blocs against each other.

And all of this is caught up in political wars at home over border security and immigration.

Former officials and analysts spoke to ABC News about how Biden may try to meet the challenges of the moment in his speech on Thursday.

'Persuader in chief'

When it comes to Ukraine, experts say Biden must convince Americans that supporting a country 5,000 miles away in Eastern Europe is not only a worthy cause -- but one that has a direct impact on their daily lives and U.S. national security.

"The president does have to be the explainer, the persuader in chief," John Hardie, deputy director of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies Russia Program, said.

Hardie argues that stressing the implications a Russian victory over Ukraine would have for U.S. national security will prove more persuasive to skeptics than the abstract aim of advancing democracy.

If Biden can make the case for Ukraine -- and polling indicates most Americans are still behind Kyiv -- he can pin the dwindling U.S. material support for the war on a clear culprit: Republican lawmakers sitting in front of him.

"Even though there's a lot more division and uncertainty than there used to be, most of the country is still with him," said Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow and director of research in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution and a member of the Defense Policy Board at the Department of Defense.

"If he can pit himself against a sort of do-nothing Congress, or at least congressional leadership, for this impasse, then it might actually wind up being a successful speech on strategic grounds and also on political grounds," O'Hanlon added.

Compassionate appeal

The State of the Union will fall on the five-month anniversary of the Israeli-Hamas war, and Americans' deeply polarized views over the conflict are poised to be on full display.

A demonstration in support of Palestinian civilians in Gaza caught in the crossfire is set to unfold in front of the White House ahead of the speech, drawing protesters who argue that Biden is complicit in their suffering, even as he lobbies for a pause in the fighting and presses for much more humanitarian aid to get into Gaza.

Meanwhile, family members of Americans who have been held by Hamas since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel will sit in the audience for the address as guests of Republican senators who say the administration should stop at nothing to bring the six hostages home.

Jon B. Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former high-ranking State Department official, says Biden's best bet is to lean into the charged emotions, demonstrating empathy for both sides.

"There are civilians on both sides who have died. There are civilians on both sides who continue to suffer," said Alterman, who also served as a staffer on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee when Biden was on the panel.

"The push will be to demonstrate his compassion for civilian suffering, which, frankly, is in the in the president's comfort zone," he added.

But Alterman and O'Hanlon argue Biden will have to pair that empathy with action.

"I think Biden is capable of finding words that that acknowledge the sorrow and loss on both sides. But he's also got to find a way to be Israel's friend without blessing everything that Israel is doing," O'Hanlon said.

"I assume he's going to be forceful on the need for more humanitarian assistance to Gaza," Alterman forecasted. "Whether that will assuage the people protesting -- I'm much more skeptical."

A global strategy, a national audience

Even though the president must confront contentious topics, experts say the State of the Union affords Biden a chance explain his foreign policy to a wide and varied audience -- a rare and potentially significant opportunity.

"It's one thing to have a White House press secretary make a speech," O'Hanlon said. "It's something else to reach directly to Americans and to explain why, at this moment in history, this is a noble and honorable set of things to do."

Alterman says the address is also a chance for Biden to argue that he's bolstering the country's influence for the better -- and that he will continue to do so in a second term.

"I think here's going to be a huge emphasis demonstrating that his leadership is relevant to the things people think about every day," Alterman said.

Hardie predicts that whether that message lands with voters will depend on whether the president can convince them that U.S. foreign policy today will pave the nation's future.

"I'd hope he would give a sense of urgency -- looking out over the next couple of decades and reminding the American people that investing in security and defense isn't a luxury," he said. "Because things can change very, very quickly."