Third GOP Debate Could Exclude These Two Candidates
These two candidates could be excluded from the third GOP debate.
— -- South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore may be cut from the next GOP debate.
Criteria released on Wednesday by CNBC could leave the two Republican presidential candidates off the stage at the next GOP presidential debate on Oct. 28 in Colorado.
In order to gain a spot at the so-called “undercard” debate, Graham and Gilmore need an average of 1 percent in voter support in at least one national poll over the next three weeks. According to an ABC News analysis of recent national polls, neither candidate currently meets the threshold.
Current ABC News projections show that the ten candidates on the main stage two weeks ago would again be on stage for the CNBC's debate, although more polls over the next three weeks could alter those standings.
Polling averages show that Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, John Kasich and Chris Christie will almost certainly make the third debate. But Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul are within one percentage point of missing out on the main stage debate.
The third undercard round would likely only take three candidates: Rick Santorum, George Pataki and Bobby Jindal.
When asked if he was considering dropping out, Graham, who garnered praise for his quips during the second undercard debate, told Whoopi Goldberg on “The View” yesterday, “No. Hell no, I’m not gonna drop out.”
A Gilmore spokesperson told ABC last week that “the governor is in the race to stay.”
Mainstage debate: (2.5 percent or higher)
1. Trump 23.0%
2. Carson 17.0%
3. Fiorina 11.5%
4. Rubio 9.8%
5. Bush 9.0%
6. Cruz 6.0%
7. Kasich 4.0%
8. Christie 3.8%
9. Huckabee 3.5%
10. Paul 2.8%
Undercard debate: (1 percent in at least one national poll)
11. Santorum 0.8%
12. Pataki <0.6%
13. Jindal <0.6%
Excluded: (did not get 1 percent in at least one national poll)
14. Gilmore <0.5%
15. Graham <0.3%
Polls included: CNN on 9/20, Bloomberg on 9/24, Fox News on 9/24, NBC/WSJ on 9/27.
Some had hoped the third debate criteria would begin to winnow the field of competitors. Earlier this month, RNC Spokesperson Sean Spicer said that it was possible there would be no undercard round during the third debate, telling ABC News that organizers were “seeing how things shake out.” But CNBC opted to keep the lower-tier debate.
“We have the most diverse and experienced field of candidates in history and we applaud CNBC’s efforts to ensure that all of our top candidates will have an opportunity to share their views with the American people,” said RNC Chairman Reince Priebus in a statement.
The previous two Republican debates, hosted by Fox News and CNN, have also had two rounds – an introductory undercard debate for lower-tier candidates and a prime-time debate with 10 or 11 top-tier candidates.
The last two rounds have shown that debates matter: Carly Fiorina’s strong performance in the Fox News undercard debate and her aggressive performance in the CNN debate catapulted her from the low single digits into a top-tier competitor.
Over the last month, two GOP candidates have dropped out of the race. Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry struggled to gain any momentum in the polls, marginalizing him to the lower-tier debate. Meanwhile Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker fell dramatically from the top of the polls in Iowa to less than 1 percent support nationwide.