Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more
The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.
The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.
Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.
ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.
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On education, Ramaswamy says he would eliminate the Department of Education and make families more central to their children's educational choice. Central to Ramaswamy's campaign is that several federal agencies should be eliminated, but the idea of parental choice in education has swept through conservative states this year. Four Republican-led states passed new universal voucher programs that would allow parents to take tax dollars and spend them on private schools, including religious schools, or homeschool their children. More states have pushed for parental bills of rights that allow students' parents to have more of a say, and object to more, curricula.
-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight
According to a Ipsos/Reuters poll from July, 77 percent of Republicans say that transgender athletes should not be able to participate in children’s sports at the elementary/high school level. Just 18 percent say they should, and 6 percent are not sure.
-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight
Haley gets cheers when striking back at Ramaswamy on Israel
Ramaswamy and Haley traded shots on his Israel and Russia-Ukraine views, with Ramaswamy interrupting Haley and claiming she has been saying misleading things about his proposals on Israel. Ramaswamy has called for winding down aid to Israel after integrating the country more into the region.
"I wish you well on your future career on the boards of Lockheed and Raytheon,” Ramaswamy quipped, referring to the aerospace and defense companies.
Haley struck back: "You have no foreign policy experience and it shows," she said -- and was met with cheers and applause from the audience.
-ABC News’ Abby Cruz
Trump, in Tucker Carlson interview, says other GOP candidates shouldn't be running
Trump wasted no time attacking other Republican candidates during his pre-taped interview with former Fox News host Carlson.
"I'm saying, do I sit there for an hour or two hours, whatever it's going to be and get harassed by people that shouldn't even be running for president?" Trump said.
The 46-minute interview -- released on Carlson's X account as the GOP debate got underway -- is being seen among the campaigns as an attempt to counter-program the first debate among 2024 Republican presidential candidates on Fox News.
Read more about the interview here.
-ABC News' Lalee Ibssa , Soo Rin Kim and Meredith Deliso
Candidate favorability vs. President Biden
If you’re trying to gauge which Republican primary candidate would perform best against Biden in next year’s general election — their “electability” — their favorability ratings are a helpful signal. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages, Biden is viewed favorably by 41.6 percent of U.S. adults and unfavorably by 53.9 percent, for a net rating of -12.3 percentage points. That compares to a net favorability rating for Trump of -16.5 points (39.7 percent favorable and 56.2 percent unfavorable). Given those numbers, a reasonable observer might expect Biden to beat Trump in the popular vote in 2024, all else being equal. (Of course, it never is).
Many of the other candidates — like Ramaswamy and Scott — have higher net favorability than Biden. But that doesn’t mean they’d actually perform better against the incumbent president in a general election. Candidates’ net favorability tends to decline as more people know them. To get a sense of how popular some of the less-known candidates are, we can use a regression model to quantify the relationship between name recognition and net favorability and then estimate what each candidate’s net favorability rating should be based on how many people know them. Then, we can compare the actual number to that benchmark and get a better sense of who is overperforming or underperforming. On this metric, Scott and Ramaswamy score the best of the non-Trump field, with current net ratings that are 5 and 6 percentage points, respectively, higher than we would predict for them. Christie, meanwhile, trails the field with a net favorability rating 15 percentage points lower than his benchmark.
-Analysis by G. Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight