Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more
The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.
The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.
Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.
ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.
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DeSantis again vows to use 'lethal force' at the border
DeSantis expressed support for using the U.S. military to combat drug cartels across the border.
"The president of the United States has to use all available powers as commander in chief to protect our country and the people," DeSantis said.
"When they are coming across, yes we are going to use lethal force," he continued -- a line he's used repeatedly throughout the campaign.
Activists have pushed back that his plan is inhumane and illegal.
-ABC News' Alexandra Hutzler
Martha MacCallum just asked about what to do about migrants already in the United States. In a July poll by The New York Times/Siena College, 39 percent of likely Republican voters say that they supported a “comprehensive immigration reform bill that provides a pathway to citizenship for all undocumented immigrants” in the United States, while 57 percent opposed such a bill. Support was weakest among Trump supporters (29 percent) compared with DeSantis supporters (48 percent) and voters who say they will vote for another candidate (50 percent).
-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight
Sen. Scott so far has stayed away from attacks and stuck to his stump speech
While many candidates onstage have sparred with each other -- including Haley and Ramaswamy swapping sharp words on foreign policy -- Scott has yet to engage with any of the other candidates.
Much of his remarks have almost word for word repeated elements from his campaign stump speech. When asked about China, which he has addressed in other appearances, he pivoted to speaking about the U.S. border.
-ABC News’ Gabriella Abdul-Hakim and Oren Oppenheim
DeSantis said he wouldn’t increase aid to Ukraine: "Europe needs to step up"
Asked to raise their hand if they would not increase aid to Ukraine, DeSantis did so, saying that "Europe needs to step up. They need to step up and do their job."
He argued: "I would have Europe pull their weight. ... Our support should be contingent on them doing it.
DeSantis -- who had received backlash from some other politicians for seemingly backtracking on support for Ukraine -- pivoted to say that he wasn’t going to send troops overseas but rather down to the Southern border.
-ABC News' Hannah Demissie and Will McDuffie
Candidate favorability vs. President Biden
If you’re trying to gauge which Republican primary candidate would perform best against Biden in next year’s general election — their “electability” — their favorability ratings are a helpful signal. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages, Biden is viewed favorably by 41.6 percent of U.S. adults and unfavorably by 53.9 percent, for a net rating of -12.3 percentage points. That compares to a net favorability rating for Trump of -16.5 points (39.7 percent favorable and 56.2 percent unfavorable). Given those numbers, a reasonable observer might expect Biden to beat Trump in the popular vote in 2024, all else being equal. (Of course, it never is).
Many of the other candidates — like Ramaswamy and Scott — have higher net favorability than Biden. But that doesn’t mean they’d actually perform better against the incumbent president in a general election. Candidates’ net favorability tends to decline as more people know them. To get a sense of how popular some of the less-known candidates are, we can use a regression model to quantify the relationship between name recognition and net favorability and then estimate what each candidate’s net favorability rating should be based on how many people know them. Then, we can compare the actual number to that benchmark and get a better sense of who is overperforming or underperforming. On this metric, Scott and Ramaswamy score the best of the non-Trump field, with current net ratings that are 5 and 6 percentage points, respectively, higher than we would predict for them. Christie, meanwhile, trails the field with a net favorability rating 15 percentage points lower than his benchmark.
-Analysis by G. Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight