Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


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Ramaswamy came out hitting the other candidates, saying he's the only one who hasn't been bought and sold. When it came to his comments on Ukraine, though, Pence and Haley are hitting back. "You have no foreign policy experience and it shows," Haley said. As Jacob said, his quick rise is drawing attacks, especially on his lack of political experience.
-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight


Haley tried to go after DeSantis as he was answering a question on Ukraine but it didn't generate the same back-and-forth as with Ramaswamy, and the moderators quickly moved on to another matter. Clearly Ramaswamy -- his lack of political experience and rapid rise in the polls -- has gotten under the skin of the other candidates on the stage and they're going out of their way to take him down a peg even if it means forgoing opportunities against the ostensible polling leader.
-Analysis by Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


The discussion has turned to the U.S. relationship with China. Republicans’ opinion of China has been steadily worsening over the last six years, according to polling from YouGov/The Economist. As of their most recent survey, 91.4 percent of Republicans said China is an enemy of the United States, while just 3.7 percent said China is an ally. The last time more Republicans said that China was an ally than said it was an enemy was April 17, 2017.
-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight


Pence, Ramaswamy get into another spat, this time over Ukraine

Pence and Ramaswamy got into another spat, this time over Ukraine, with the vice president attacking his rival over Ramaswamy's calls to send military resources to the southern border, not Ukraine.

"Anybody that thinks that we can't solve the problems here in the United States and be the leader the free world has a pretty small view of the greatest nation on Earth," Pence said.

"I have a newsflash. The USSR does not exist anymore," Ramaswamy shot back, referring to the Soviet Union.

-ABC News' Tal Axelrod


Candidate favorability vs. President Biden

If you’re trying to gauge which Republican primary candidate would perform best against Biden in next year’s general election — their “electability” — their favorability ratings are a helpful signal. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages, Biden is viewed favorably by 41.6 percent of U.S. adults and unfavorably by 53.9 percent, for a net rating of -12.3 percentage points. That compares to a net favorability rating for Trump of -16.5 points (39.7 percent favorable and 56.2 percent unfavorable). Given those numbers, a reasonable observer might expect Biden to beat Trump in the popular vote in 2024, all else being equal. (Of course, it never is).

Many of the other candidates — like Ramaswamy and Scott — have higher net favorability than Biden. But that doesn’t mean they’d actually perform better against the incumbent president in a general election. Candidates’ net favorability tends to decline as more people know them. To get a sense of how popular some of the less-known candidates are, we can use a regression model to quantify the relationship between name recognition and net favorability and then estimate what each candidate’s net favorability rating should be based on how many people know them. Then, we can compare the actual number to that benchmark and get a better sense of who is overperforming or underperforming. On this metric, Scott and Ramaswamy score the best of the non-Trump field, with current net ratings that are 5 and 6 percentage points, respectively, higher than we would predict for them. Christie, meanwhile, trails the field with a net favorability rating 15 percentage points lower than his benchmark.

-Analysis by G. Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight