Six Republican candidates raised their hands when asked if they'd support Trump as the party's nominee if he were convicted and still went on to win. Two, Christie and Hutchinson, did not. Christie wagged his finger and criticized Trump, saying it was "unbecoming" to behave as Trump had. The crowd booed Christie extensively, to the point that Baier has to shush the crowd like a schoolteacher, telling them they need to "get through" this part. -Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight

Trump has largely been absent from this debate so far. In the first half, he was only mentioned five times by name, although Hutchinson did take a swipe at “a former president who is under indictment.” But now the moderators are asking about his legal troubles directly.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight

The moderators finally turn to discussing Trump, who has skipped the debate for a (pre-recorded!) interview with Tucker Carlson. It's clearly intentional that they waited this long — Trump is ahead by 37 points in our national polling average, so he's an obvious elephant (not) in the room. In some ways the entire debate is moot because of that lead. Remember that these candidates are running for second and third place right now, not first.

-Analysis by G Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight

Burgum has mentioned his small-town roots a few times during the debate, most recently to hold up small towns as an example of how to beat back rising crime. A lot of what distinguishes Burgum from the field -- his success as tech CEO, his more pragmatic politics, his low-key demeanor -- don't necessarily play well in today's Republican Party, but small-town politics is usually a winner. Just look at the success of Jason Aldean's "Try That In a Small Town" among conservatives earlier this month.
-Analysis by Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

If you’re trying to gauge which Republican primary candidate would perform best against Biden in next year’s general election — their “electability” — their favorability ratings are a helpful signal. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages, Biden is viewed favorably by 41.6 percent of U.S. adults and unfavorably by 53.9 percent, for a net rating of -12.3 percentage points. That compares to a net favorability rating for Trump of -16.5 points (39.7 percent favorable and 56.2 percent unfavorable). Given those numbers, a reasonable observer might expect Biden to beat Trump in the popular vote in 2024, all else being equal. (Of course, it never is).

Many of the other candidates — like Ramaswamy and Scott — have higher net favorability than Biden. But that doesn’t mean they’d actually perform better against the incumbent president in a general election. Candidates’ net favorability tends to decline as more people know them. To get a sense of how popular some of the less-known candidates are, we can use a regression model to quantify the relationship between name recognition and net favorability and then estimate what each candidate’s net favorability rating should be based on how many people know them. Then, we can compare the actual number to that benchmark and get a better sense of who is overperforming or underperforming. On this metric, Scott and Ramaswamy score the best of the non-Trump field, with current net ratings that are 5 and 6 percentage points, respectively, higher than we would predict for them. Christie, meanwhile, trails the field with a net favorability rating 15 percentage points lower than his benchmark.

-Analysis by G. Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight