DeSantis wouldn’t directly answer when the moderators asked him if he would sign a national abortion ban, and Pence pounced. He comes from the social conservative wing of the party, and supports a national ban. This isn’t the first time Pence has criticized DeSantis for not being conservative enough on abortion, either.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight

Haley reiterated her calls for "compassion" when the country debates abortion, though she declined to state whether she would support a federal ban on the procedure.

Haley noted the uphill climb to a federal ban, referencing the 60-vote filibuster in the Senate, but said she would oppose late-term abortions and punishments for women who receive abortions.

"Can't we all agree that we should ban late term abortions? Can't we all agree that we should encourage adoptions? Can't we all agree that doctors and nurses who don't believe in abortion shouldn't have to perform them? Can't we all agree that contraception should be available? And can't we all agree that we are not going to put a woman in jail or give her the death penalty if she gets an abortion? Let's treat this like the like the respectful issue that it is," she said.

-ABC News' Tal Axelrod

The candidates are now debating abortion, which has obviously been a hot-button issue lately, but it’s actually not super important to Republican primary voters right now. According to our FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, only 6 percent of Republicans identified limiting abortion as one of their top three issues.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight

In the commercial break we get an ad targeting pro-Ukraine Republicans from Defending Democracy Together, a PAC led by a group of anti-Trump conservatives who have been very active in politics since 2017. In a poll from the Pew Research Center in June 44 percent of Republicans said the US was giving too much aid to Ukraine. I'm not sure how much this ad is going to register; Ukraine and national defense barely register in polls of Americans' most important problem these days. I think it says more about the divide in the party over Trump — who hasn't been mentioned in the debate at all so far.
-Analysis by G Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight

If you’re trying to gauge which Republican primary candidate would perform best against Biden in next year’s general election — their “electability” — their favorability ratings are a helpful signal. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages, Biden is viewed favorably by 41.6 percent of U.S. adults and unfavorably by 53.9 percent, for a net rating of -12.3 percentage points. That compares to a net favorability rating for Trump of -16.5 points (39.7 percent favorable and 56.2 percent unfavorable). Given those numbers, a reasonable observer might expect Biden to beat Trump in the popular vote in 2024, all else being equal. (Of course, it never is).

Many of the other candidates — like Ramaswamy and Scott — have higher net favorability than Biden. But that doesn’t mean they’d actually perform better against the incumbent president in a general election. Candidates’ net favorability tends to decline as more people know them. To get a sense of how popular some of the less-known candidates are, we can use a regression model to quantify the relationship between name recognition and net favorability and then estimate what each candidate’s net favorability rating should be based on how many people know them. Then, we can compare the actual number to that benchmark and get a better sense of who is overperforming or underperforming. On this metric, Scott and Ramaswamy score the best of the non-Trump field, with current net ratings that are 5 and 6 percentage points, respectively, higher than we would predict for them. Christie, meanwhile, trails the field with a net favorability rating 15 percentage points lower than his benchmark.

-Analysis by G. Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight