Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more
The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.
The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.
Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.
ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.
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The idea that all of this is "not that complicated" and "pretty simple" is Ramaswamy's pitch. He's organized his campaign around the idea of simple truths. As expected, he's already drawn attacks from other candidates on the stage. Pence has already hammered him on his lack of experience.
-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight
Christie is greeted to debate stage with boos
Christie received loud boos from the crowd as moderators introduced the Republican field at the start of the debate. As of August 2023, the former New Jersey governor’s unfavorability rating is nearly 49%, according to the latest polling averages [published by FiveThirtyEight], () while his favorability rating hovers at 23%.
-ABC News’ Nicholas Kerr and Olivia Osteen
On COVID-19, Republicans are not happy with the Biden administration’s response. According to a Ipsos/Reuters survey from August, only 27 percent of Republicans think the administration has done the right amount to promote public health and fight COVID-19, compared to 66 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of independents. Thirty-three percent of Republicans said the administration has done too much, and 30 percent said it has done too little.
-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight
Haley has been struggling to distinguish herself among the presidential field, so it's notable that she came out swinging against not just the men on the stage with her but Republicans in Washington, DC as well, for passing those substantial spending bills during the Covid-19 pandemic.
–Analysis from Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Candidate favorability vs. President Biden
If you’re trying to gauge which Republican primary candidate would perform best against Biden in next year’s general election — their “electability” — their favorability ratings are a helpful signal. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages, Biden is viewed favorably by 41.6 percent of U.S. adults and unfavorably by 53.9 percent, for a net rating of -12.3 percentage points. That compares to a net favorability rating for Trump of -16.5 points (39.7 percent favorable and 56.2 percent unfavorable). Given those numbers, a reasonable observer might expect Biden to beat Trump in the popular vote in 2024, all else being equal. (Of course, it never is).
Many of the other candidates — like Ramaswamy and Scott — have higher net favorability than Biden. But that doesn’t mean they’d actually perform better against the incumbent president in a general election. Candidates’ net favorability tends to decline as more people know them. To get a sense of how popular some of the less-known candidates are, we can use a regression model to quantify the relationship between name recognition and net favorability and then estimate what each candidate’s net favorability rating should be based on how many people know them. Then, we can compare the actual number to that benchmark and get a better sense of who is overperforming or underperforming. On this metric, Scott and Ramaswamy score the best of the non-Trump field, with current net ratings that are 5 and 6 percentage points, respectively, higher than we would predict for them. Christie, meanwhile, trails the field with a net favorability rating 15 percentage points lower than his benchmark.
-Analysis by G. Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight