Pence and Ramaswamy trading barbs. Pence opens with America being a faith-filled country without an identity crisis, while Ramaswamy says we're in a dark place and it's not morning in America. It echoed Trump's "American carnage" during his first inaugural address.
-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight

Because there was so much chatter on Pence's support of a 15-week abortion ban, I asked Fivey Fox (aka FiveThirtyEight's Senior Researcher) to pull all the polls we've collected on the subject since September 2021. Over that whole time period Americans were split 44-44 on the issue, but in polls conducted this year they are opposed 51-41.
-Analysis by G Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight

According to a July poll from NewsNation, 72 percent of Republican voters believe the criminal justice system isn’t tough enough on crime. That’s compared to 58 percent of voters overall, and just 42 percent of Democrats.
-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight

Pence was pressed on crime in some of the nation's major cities -- with rates that spiked parallel with the COVID-19 pandemic, though they have since dropped in some areas -- and whether the Trump administration's COVID-19 policies were in part to blame.

Pence deflected, saying, "The Democrats have been talking about defunding the police for the last five years. And we ought to be funding law enforcement, particularly in our major cities, at unprecedented levels."

-ABC News' Tal Axelrod

Trump maintains a lead of 25 percentage points over his nearest competitor in Iowa, according to the latest polls.

DeSantis and Scott are both polling higher in Iowa than they are nationally, according to our polling average. Trump is polling about 10 points lower in Iowa than in national polls.

According to a July poll from J.L. Partners/DailyMail.com, only 51 percent of Iowa Republicans said their mind was made up. Forty-three percent said they could still be persuaded to support another candidate. Voters who said they plan to vote for Trump were the most likely to say their mind is made up, with 80 percent saying so compared with 37 percent of those who said they plan to vote for DeSantis and 11 percent of those who said they plan to vote for Scott.

Scott and DeSantis have the highest net favorability among Iowa Republican voters. Pence, Christie and Hutchinson are underwater.

In an early state poll from the Manhattan Institute conducted in July, Iowa Republicans are split on whether electability is important. Forty-six percent of Iowa Republican voters say that it is most important for Republican candidates to win elections and be in power, even if that means compromising or moderating their positions, while 45 percent said it is most important for candidates to stay true to their principles, even if that means losing elections.

Iowa Republicans also think that skipping primary debates shows weakness more than strength, according to a July Fox Business/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research survey. Fifty-nine percent of Republicans said skipping the debate shows weakness, while 27 percent said it shows strength.

-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight