Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


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Ramaswamy was relatively unknown before tonight

Adding onto Nathaniel's Google search comment ... debates can serve as a great introduction to some of the lesser-known candidates. Ramaswamy is probably tonight’s big winner in making a name for himself: 59 percent of voters had no opinion or had never heard of Ramaswamy before tonight, according to a favorability question in our pre-debate FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post/Ipsos poll. That’s likely changed after all of the talking he’s done on stage — and we’ll be tracking whether that’s a good or bad thing. Check back in at FiveThirtyEight tomorrow afternoon for our post-debate analysis.
-Analysis by Holly Fuong of FiveThirtyEight


Pence pressed on Biden's age, presidential fitness tests

Pence was pressed by moderators if presidents should have to pass a mental and physical test to serve, invoking President Joe Biden's age.

Pence, who is 64, initially joked that "it might be a good idea to have everybody in Washington" pass one.

He then took a serious tone, saying, "No, the American people can make those judgments."

He appeared to take a swipe at Ramaswamy, the youngest candidate on stage, stating the nation doesn't need a president who is too young either.

-ABC News' Alexandra Hutzler


Anyone surprised by how little Trump has come up tonight?

In the front-runner's absence, many of us here at FiveThirtyEight suspected (in part because of some leaked debate memos) that the former president would loom large over the proceedings, with candidates taking shots at him whenever possible. That hasn't really happened tonight, though! What do you make of it?

-Analysis by Maya Sweedler of FiveThirtyEight


Ramaswamy leads in Google searches during the debate

Ramaswamy has been far and away the most Googled candidate during the debate tonight. He’s received three times as much search interest as DeSantis or Haley. Now, I’m not sure what that means for his chances — Google searches aren’t votes, and people might just be curious to learn more about him. But I think it does reflect that he has been the story of this debate so far. Whether that’s a good story for him or a bad story is still TBD.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight


Early state check-in: South Carolina

Trump maintains a lead of 28 percentage points over his nearest competitor in South Carolina, according to the latest polls.

Haley and Scott, the two candidates from South Carolina, are both polling higher in South Carolina than they are nationally, according to our polling average. Trump is polling about 7 points lower in South Carolina than in national polls.

Only one pollster, the Manhattan Institute has tested the favorability of Republican candidates in South Carolina since July 1. That survey found Scott and DeSantis had the highest net favorability in the state (+56 and +55 percentage points, respectively), and Trump and Haley close behind (+39 and +33 points, respectively). Pence had a net favorability of +1 point, and Christie was underwater by -36 points.

Economic issues are most important to Republican primary voters in South Carolina, according to a July survey from Fox Business/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research. Fifty-one percent of Republican voters said economic issues would be most important for deciding their vote. Twelve percent each said immigration issues, social issues and foreign policy were most important.

In an August survey by National Public Affairs, 40 percent of South Carolina Republican voters said that Trump wouldn’t lose their support even if he did not show up to the debate. Twelve percent said that they support Trump, but if he didn’t debate they would be open to or definitely supporting someone else, 32 percent said they wouldn’t vote for Trump regardless, 9 percent said they probably wouldn’t watch the debate anyway and 6 percent were unsure.

-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight