Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more
The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.
The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.
Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.
ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.
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Trump leads everyone on stage by nearly 40 points
The moderators finally turn to discussing Trump, who has skipped the debate for a (pre-recorded!) interview with Tucker Carlson. It's clearly intentional that they waited this long — Trump is ahead by 37 points in our national polling average, so he's an obvious elephant (not) in the room. In some ways the entire debate is moot because of that lead. Remember that these candidates are running for second and third place right now, not first.
-Analysis by G Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight
Burgum has mentioned his small-town roots a few times during the debate, most recently to hold up small towns as an example of how to beat back rising crime. A lot of what distinguishes Burgum from the field -- his success as tech CEO, his more pragmatic politics, his low-key demeanor -- don't necessarily play well in today's Republican Party, but small-town politics is usually a winner. Just look at the success of Jason Aldean's "Try That In a Small Town" among conservatives earlier this month.
-Analysis by Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Mostly peaceful protests took place outside debate venue at start of night
A group of more than 100 anti-Republican protestors temporarily took to the street outside Fiserv Forum after the debate began.
The group was advocating on behalf of several causes championed by the left, carrying signs advocating for abortion rights, transgender rights, immigrant rights and Black Lives Matter, among other causes.
Some of the signs were more explicitly political in nature, directly targeting GOP candidates.
One protestor carried a sign reading “Down with DeSantis.”
The group cheered, whistled and chanted as they advanced down the street.
“Get up, get down, Milwaukee is a union town,” was one chant that could be heard.
The protestors were accompanied by legal observers.
The group walked down an open street and at one point briefly blocked traffic. The protestors were otherwise peaceful and dissipated soon after they began.
-ABC News’ Allison Pecorin and Olivia Osteen
The candidates didn't seem eager to talk about climate change
The candidates came to the debate prepared with answers about abortion – carefully considering their wording, and, in a stark departure from the first half hour, actually answering the moderators’ question on the issue.
One thing the candidates didn’t want to talk about? Climate change. The moderators asked the candidates to raise their hand if they believed human behavior was driving climate change — but that didn’t happen. Instead, DeSantis said he wanted to debate rather than answer a question like “school children.” Ramaswamy chimed in to say “the climate change agenda is a hoax,” drawing boos from the crowd, though it wasn’t clear what exactly they were booing. Christie jumped in to say that Ramaswamy sounded like both ChatGPT and Obama. Haley decided that this was the moment to quote Margaret Thatcher — “if you want something done ask a woman” — though she did answer that climate change was real, putting the onus on China. And Scott used the moment to chide the rest of the field for being “childish.”
— Analysis by Leah Askarinam of FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight takeaway: Same as it ever was
Let me put my wannabe political scientist's hat on for a second. We heard a lot tonight about what ails America: crime, climate change, inflation, bureaucracy (some issues are more persuasive than others). And the candidates presented various visions for combating those issues — again, some more persuasive than others! But as is always the case, a lot of what we see in these debates is just theater. There are serious doubts that these contests can really accomplish most of what these candidates are trying to sell — indeed, some of the problems may come down to the structure of these primaries in general. Next time, if the candidates are trying to run for president, they should really just stick to talking about their electability.
-Analysis by G Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight