Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more
The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.
The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.
Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.
ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.
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Christie on gun violence: 'Lock up these violent criminals'
Christie again focused on his record as New Jersey governor when asked about how he'd address shootings and gun violence plaguing the nation.
He accused prosecutors of not arresting violent criminals and said a "President Christie" would appoint attorney general to instruct U.S. attorney to do so.
"We have plenty of room in the federal prisons to lock up these violent criminals and clean up what's going on all across this country and these individuals," Christie said.
Fact-checking Pence on public support for a 15-week abortion ban
During the abortion back-and-forth, Pence claimed that 70 percent of Americans support a 15-week abortion ban. He’s cherry picking the results from one poll.
A 2022 survey from the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and The Harris Poll asked respondents, "Do you think your state should allow abortion…?”
Twenty-three percent said up to 15 weeks, 12 percent said up to six weeks and 37 percent said only in cases of rape and incest. That’s 72 percent all together. But answers in surveys vary greatly depending on how the question is asked.
A 2022 Economist/YouGov poll asked specifically about a 15-week ban — 39 percent supported it, 46 percent opposed it. A 2023 PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll asked respondents whether abortion should be allowed up until 24 weeks — 44 percent said yes.
-Aaron Sharockman, PolitiFact
Pence and Ramaswamy trading barbs. Pence opens with America being a faith-filled country without an identity crisis, while Ramaswamy says we're in a dark place and it's not morning in America. It echoed Trump's "American carnage" during his first inaugural address.
-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight
Where do Americans stand on an abortion ban?
Because there was so much chatter on Pence's support of a 15-week abortion ban, I asked Fivey Fox (aka FiveThirtyEight's Senior Researcher) to pull all the polls we've collected on the subject since September 2021. Over that whole time period Americans were split 44-44 on the issue, but in polls conducted this year they are opposed 51-41.
-Analysis by G Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight takeaway: Same as it ever was
Let me put my wannabe political scientist's hat on for a second. We heard a lot tonight about what ails America: crime, climate change, inflation, bureaucracy (some issues are more persuasive than others). And the candidates presented various visions for combating those issues — again, some more persuasive than others! But as is always the case, a lot of what we see in these debates is just theater. There are serious doubts that these contests can really accomplish most of what these candidates are trying to sell — indeed, some of the problems may come down to the structure of these primaries in general. Next time, if the candidates are trying to run for president, they should really just stick to talking about their electability.
-Analysis by G Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight