Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more
The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.
The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.
Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.
ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.
Read deeper:
Abortion isn’t a top priority for Republicans
The candidates are now debating abortion, which has obviously been a hot-button issue lately, but it’s actually not super important to Republican primary voters right now. According to our FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, only 6 percent of Republicans identified limiting abortion as one of their top three issues.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight
In the commercial break we get an ad targeting pro-Ukraine Republicans from Defending Democracy Together, a PAC led by a group of anti-Trump conservatives who have been very active in politics since 2017. In a poll from the Pew Research Center in June 44 percent of Republicans said the US was giving too much aid to Ukraine. I'm not sure how much this ad is going to register; Ukraine and national defense barely register in polls of Americans' most important problem these days. I think it says more about the divide in the party over Trump — who hasn't been mentioned in the debate at all so far.
-Analysis by G Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight
DeSantis shuts down Fox attempt at hand raising
DeSantis quickly shut down a question from Fox News' Martha MaCallum asking candidates to raise their hands if they believe human behavior is causing climate change.
"Look, we’re not schoolchildren. Let's have the debate," DeSantis said.
He then largely declined to answer the question at hand, instead criticizing President Joe Biden's response to the Maui wildfires in Hawaii. (Biden's aides have pushed back on such criticism.)
"As somebody that has handled disasters in Florida, you have to be there present and helping people who are doing this," DeSantis said.
DeSantis criticizes Biden, points to his record on natural disasters
On the climate change question, DeSantis once again steered things toward one of the strengths of his record: handling natural disasters. Eighty percent of Republicans viewed his response to Hurricane Ian in 2022 favorably, and he got a boost in the polls after the hurricane hit, perhaps contributing to his 19-point victory in the 2022 gubernatorial race.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight takeaway: Same as it ever was
Let me put my wannabe political scientist's hat on for a second. We heard a lot tonight about what ails America: crime, climate change, inflation, bureaucracy (some issues are more persuasive than others). And the candidates presented various visions for combating those issues — again, some more persuasive than others! But as is always the case, a lot of what we see in these debates is just theater. There are serious doubts that these contests can really accomplish most of what these candidates are trying to sell — indeed, some of the problems may come down to the structure of these primaries in general. Next time, if the candidates are trying to run for president, they should really just stick to talking about their electability.
-Analysis by G Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight