Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more
The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.
The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.
Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.
ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.
Read deeper:
What FiveThirtyEight is watching for tonight: Pence and Hutchinson
Tonight I’m on Pence and Hutchinson duty. Neither candidate appears to have a great shot at winning the primary — the former vice president is at 4 percent in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average while the former Arkansas governor hasn’t even garnered 1 percent — but Pence at least has a decent chance of making a debate-night splash. Given the events of Jan. 6, 2021, Pence has the strongest claim to the anti-Trump “lane” of the primary. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some real fireworks between him and the GOP candidates who have been quick to jump to Trump’s defense after the bad news he has been hit with over the past year. For his part, Hutchinson will have to pull off a masterclass in persuasion and performance to gain substantial ground. In our poll with Ipsos and The Washington Post, only 6 percent of Republicans said they were even considering voting for him, much less were intending to do so. In a more fluid primary, he’d maybe have a shot at doing something about that. But with Trump as the default and other candidates leading the various anti-Trump lanes, those are really tough numbers to come back from.
–Analysis from G. Elliott Morris_
What FiveThirtyEight is watching for tonight: DeSantis
I’m watching DeSantis tonight. The Florida governor really needs a good performance tonight to reestablish himself as the main alternative to Trump after seeing his national polling average slip from 36 percent in mid-March to just 15 percent today. It will be interesting to see how much he goes after the absent Trump — which has typically been his strategy to this point — versus attacking the other not-Trumps, who are realistically his main competition these days. I’m also curious what bar DeSantis will be measured against. The popular narrative about him is that he’s kind of awkward, so maybe a quote-unquote “presidential” performance will be reassuring to people who are on the fence about him. But our poll with Ipsos and The Washington Post actually found that voters have relatively high expectations when it comes to DeSantis’s debating abilities, so maybe he needs a truly masterful performance in order to move the needle.
–Analysis from Nathaniel Rakich
Scenes from outside the debate
Attendees seen greeting supporters outside the debate hall in Milwaukee have included former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and Trump's son Donald Trump Jr.
Ramaswamy surrogates, including a 'special guest,' will head to the spin room in his absence
While Ramaswamy is still "unlikely" to visit the spin room following the debate, his wife, Apoorva Ramaswamy, his communications director and senior adviser Tricia McLaughlin, two other team members and an undisclosed "special guest" will be there on his behalf, according to McLaughlin.
The spin room is the space where campaigns highlight their candidate and attack their opponents after the debate. Many candidates themselves head there after they take the stage.
-ABC News' Kendall Ross
FiveThirtyEight takeaways: Christie fights, Scott struggles to break through
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the pugnacious Christie repeatedly mixed it up with other candidates tonight. He was critical of Trump, calling the front-runner's behavior "unbecoming" and making him unfit to be president. Christie has a track record of strong debates, having shown in 2016 how he can throw a verbal punch, including his famous takedown of Marco Rubio just ahead of the New Hampshire primary that year. But Christie's criticism of Trump and his high unfavorable ratings among Republicans make his performance unlikely to cause a Christie boomlet in this race.
For Scott, tonight was an opportunity to capitalize on his potential as a candidate who is well-liked by Republicans familiar with him but who is not that well-known. And he largely tried to stay above the fray on most issues, which in theory made sense if he wanted to look like a consensus-style candidate who most Republicans could like. However, that also led to him getting less airtime, as the candidates who engaged each other and freely interrupted were more likely to be on camera. This debate doesn't hurt Scott, but I'm skeptical it helped him much.
-Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight