Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


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Ramaswamy was relatively unknown before tonight

Adding onto Nathaniel's Google search comment ... debates can serve as a great introduction to some of the lesser-known candidates. Ramaswamy is probably tonight’s big winner in making a name for himself: 59 percent of voters had no opinion or had never heard of Ramaswamy before tonight, according to a favorability question in our pre-debate FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post/Ipsos poll. That’s likely changed after all of the talking he’s done on stage — and we’ll be tracking whether that’s a good or bad thing. Check back in at FiveThirtyEight tomorrow afternoon for our post-debate analysis.
-Analysis by Holly Fuong of FiveThirtyEight


Pence pressed on Biden's age, presidential fitness tests

Pence was pressed by moderators if presidents should have to pass a mental and physical test to serve, invoking President Joe Biden's age.

Pence, who is 64, initially joked that "it might be a good idea to have everybody in Washington" pass one.

He then took a serious tone, saying, "No, the American people can make those judgments."

He appeared to take a swipe at Ramaswamy, the youngest candidate on stage, stating the nation doesn't need a president who is too young either.

-ABC News' Alexandra Hutzler


Anyone surprised by how little Trump has come up tonight?

In the front-runner's absence, many of us here at FiveThirtyEight suspected (in part because of some leaked debate memos) that the former president would loom large over the proceedings, with candidates taking shots at him whenever possible. That hasn't really happened tonight, though! What do you make of it?

-Analysis by Maya Sweedler of FiveThirtyEight


Ramaswamy leads in Google searches during the debate

Ramaswamy has been far and away the most Googled candidate during the debate tonight. He’s received three times as much search interest as DeSantis or Haley. Now, I’m not sure what that means for his chances — Google searches aren’t votes, and people might just be curious to learn more about him. But I think it does reflect that he has been the story of this debate so far. Whether that’s a good story for him or a bad story is still TBD.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight


How to evaluate the debate like a pro

In the aftermath of a debate, it can be hard to figure out the actual impact of a viral moment or heated exchange. Here are some data-driven approaches that can help cut through the noise:

First, ignore “instant polls” that ask questions only among people who watched the debate. That group is not likely to represent the feelings of the broader population. Instead, look for post-debate polls — (like ours with Ipsos and the Washington Post) — that ask questions among the same group of Americans both pre- and post-debate.

Second, in the days following the debate, look at data that captures attention to candidates, such as trends in search results or media coverage, to determine which candidate made the biggest splash. Media attention is crucial for candidates who aren’t well known to gain traction in the polls and with donors.

Finally, look for changes in horse-race polls in the week or two after the debate. There is a lot of noise in primary polls (especially this time around) and it can take some time for changes in public opinion to be reflected in our polling average.

The big thing to remember is that what’s important to journalists and television pundits may not be what’s important to the public, and we have to wait for pollsters to ask them how they feel.

-Analysis by G. Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight