Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


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DeSantis again vows to use 'lethal force' at the border

DeSantis expressed support for using the U.S. military to combat drug cartels across the border.

"The president of the United States has to use all available powers as commander in chief to protect our country and the people," DeSantis said.

"When they are coming across, yes we are going to use lethal force," he continued -- a line he's used repeatedly throughout the campaign.

Activists have pushed back that his plan is inhumane and illegal.

-ABC News' Alexandra Hutzler


Martha MacCallum just asked about what to do about migrants already in the United States. In a July poll by The New York Times/Siena College, 39 percent of likely Republican voters say that they supported a “comprehensive immigration reform bill that provides a pathway to citizenship for all undocumented immigrants” in the United States, while 57 percent opposed such a bill. Support was weakest among Trump supporters (29 percent) compared with DeSantis supporters (48 percent) and voters who say they will vote for another candidate (50 percent).
-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight


Sen. Scott so far has stayed away from attacks and stuck to his stump speech

While many candidates onstage have sparred with each other -- including Haley and Ramaswamy swapping sharp words on foreign policy -- Scott has yet to engage with any of the other candidates.

Much of his remarks have almost word for word repeated elements from his campaign stump speech. When asked about China, which he has addressed in other appearances, he pivoted to speaking about the U.S. border.

-ABC News’ Gabriella Abdul-Hakim and Oren Oppenheim


DeSantis said he wouldn’t increase aid to Ukraine: "Europe needs to step up"

Asked to raise their hand if they would not increase aid to Ukraine, DeSantis did so, saying that "Europe needs to step up. They need to step up and do their job."

He argued: "I would have Europe pull their weight. ... Our support should be contingent on them doing it.

DeSantis -- who had received backlash from some other politicians for seemingly backtracking on support for Ukraine -- pivoted to say that he wasn’t going to send troops overseas but rather down to the Southern border.

-ABC News' Hannah Demissie and Will McDuffie


How to evaluate the debate like a pro

In the aftermath of a debate, it can be hard to figure out the actual impact of a viral moment or heated exchange. Here are some data-driven approaches that can help cut through the noise:

First, ignore “instant polls” that ask questions only among people who watched the debate. That group is not likely to represent the feelings of the broader population. Instead, look for post-debate polls — (like ours with Ipsos and the Washington Post) — that ask questions among the same group of Americans both pre- and post-debate.

Second, in the days following the debate, look at data that captures attention to candidates, such as trends in search results or media coverage, to determine which candidate made the biggest splash. Media attention is crucial for candidates who aren’t well known to gain traction in the polls and with donors.

Finally, look for changes in horse-race polls in the week or two after the debate. There is a lot of noise in primary polls (especially this time around) and it can take some time for changes in public opinion to be reflected in our polling average.

The big thing to remember is that what’s important to journalists and television pundits may not be what’s important to the public, and we have to wait for pollsters to ask them how they feel.

-Analysis by G. Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight