Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


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Sen. Scott possibly mishears question when asked if he's bought and paid for — responds, "absolutely"

Scott was asked if he's bought and paid for after Ramaswamy said he's the only candidate on stage who isn't bought and paid for. Possibly mishearing the question, he responded, "Absolutely." The moderators repeated it and he responded, "Absolutely not."

Then Scott proceeded to chide the rest of the stage for attacking one another.

"Here is what the American people deserve. It's a debate about the issues that affect their lives. Going back and forth and being childish is not helpful to the American people to decide on the next leader of our country,” Scott said.

-ABC News’ Gabriella Abdul-Hakim


Scott and Pence have both mentioned a federal 15-week abortion ban. A majority of Republican primary voters say they support a such a ban, according to a July survey from The New York Times/Siena College. Fifty-eight percent of Republicans said they support a 15-week ban, including 41 percent who say they strongly support such a ban. Thirty-six percent oppose it and 6 percent are unsure.
-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight


Haley's first big moment of the debate comes as she spars with Pence on abortion, but the moderators cut off their conversation before it really developed. Somewhat unexpectedly, Burgum stands out on abortion too, unequivocally coming out against a national abortion ban on constitutional grounds.
-Analysis by Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


DeSantis’ campaign team still upset about debate memo leak: Source

Members of DeSantis’s campaign are still upset about a debate memo that was prepared and published last week by a super PAC supporting the governor, a source close to the campaign told ABC News on Wednesday, describing those members of his team as “wildly irritated.”

Chief among the complaints is that the memo, which detailed suggested approaches and lines of attack, effectively handcuffs DeSantis by preventing the governor from using any of the advice on stage lest he invite attacks from opponents for using lines manufactured for him by other people.

The memo included research documents that show that Axiom Strategies, a consulting firm tied to the super political action committee, anticipated that the biggest hits to DeSantis would include his battle with Disney -- ABC News' parent company -- past comments on Ukraine, Florida's Black history standard, the culture wars and abortion.

The packet also included past comments made by presidential hopefuls attacking DeSantis on those specific subjects.

DeSantis himself has downplayed the memo, telling Fox News recently, “It’s not mine. I haven’t read it. It’s just -- I think it’s something that we have put off to the side.”

-ABC News’ Hannah Demissie, Will McDuffie and Olivia Osteen


How to evaluate the debate like a pro

In the aftermath of a debate, it can be hard to figure out the actual impact of a viral moment or heated exchange. Here are some data-driven approaches that can help cut through the noise:

First, ignore “instant polls” that ask questions only among people who watched the debate. That group is not likely to represent the feelings of the broader population. Instead, look for post-debate polls — (like ours with Ipsos and the Washington Post) — that ask questions among the same group of Americans both pre- and post-debate.

Second, in the days following the debate, look at data that captures attention to candidates, such as trends in search results or media coverage, to determine which candidate made the biggest splash. Media attention is crucial for candidates who aren’t well known to gain traction in the polls and with donors.

Finally, look for changes in horse-race polls in the week or two after the debate. There is a lot of noise in primary polls (especially this time around) and it can take some time for changes in public opinion to be reflected in our polling average.

The big thing to remember is that what’s important to journalists and television pundits may not be what’s important to the public, and we have to wait for pollsters to ask them how they feel.

-Analysis by G. Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight