Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


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Haley tries to defuse barbs

Haley tried to defuse the flying attacks, including another round of barbs between Christie and Ramaswamy.

"This is exactly why Margaret Thatcher said if you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman," Haley said.


"If you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman," says Haley (quoting former U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher), chastising both Christie and Ramaswamy while drawing attention to the fact that she's the only woman up on stage tonight.
-Analysis by Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Pence, Ramaswamy get into first back-and-forth of the night

Pence and Ramaswamy engaged in the first fiery back-and-forth of the night, with the former vice president going after the entrepreneur in an unprompted attack.

"You got people on this stage that won't even talk about issues like Social Security and Medicare," Pence said. "Vivek, you recently said, a president can't do everything. Well, I got news for you … the president of the United States has to confront every crisis facing America. I will put our nation back on the path to growth and prosperity and restore fiscal responsibility."

Ramaswamy didn't directly take Pence on in response, saying he'd tap into all of America's energy resources.

Pence didn't let Ramaswamy off the hook, firing back, "Let me explain it to you. I'll go slower this time."


Burgum finally gets a word in, and starts with an easy "break a leg" joke. Notable that he pivots pretty quickly from the economy write large to specifically talk about energy. He's come armed with the statistics you'd expect from the leader of one of the top energy-producing states in the union.


How to evaluate the debate like a pro

In the aftermath of a debate, it can be hard to figure out the actual impact of a viral moment or heated exchange. Here are some data-driven approaches that can help cut through the noise:

First, ignore “instant polls” that ask questions only among people who watched the debate. That group is not likely to represent the feelings of the broader population. Instead, look for post-debate polls — (like ours with Ipsos and the Washington Post) — that ask questions among the same group of Americans both pre- and post-debate.

Second, in the days following the debate, look at data that captures attention to candidates, such as trends in search results or media coverage, to determine which candidate made the biggest splash. Media attention is crucial for candidates who aren’t well known to gain traction in the polls and with donors.

Finally, look for changes in horse-race polls in the week or two after the debate. There is a lot of noise in primary polls (especially this time around) and it can take some time for changes in public opinion to be reflected in our polling average.

The big thing to remember is that what’s important to journalists and television pundits may not be what’s important to the public, and we have to wait for pollsters to ask them how they feel.

-Analysis by G. Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight