Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


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Pence, Ramaswamy get into first back-and-forth of the night

Pence and Ramaswamy engaged in the first fiery back-and-forth of the night, with the former vice president going after the entrepreneur in an unprompted attack.

"You got people on this stage that won't even talk about issues like Social Security and Medicare," Pence said. "Vivek, you recently said, a president can't do everything. Well, I got news for you … the president of the United States has to confront every crisis facing America. I will put our nation back on the path to growth and prosperity and restore fiscal responsibility."

Ramaswamy didn't directly take Pence on in response, saying he'd tap into all of America's energy resources.

Pence didn't let Ramaswamy off the hook, firing back, "Let me explain it to you. I'll go slower this time."


Burgum finally gets a word in, and starts with an easy "break a leg" joke. Notable that he pivots pretty quickly from the economy write large to specifically talk about energy. He's come armed with the statistics you'd expect from the leader of one of the top energy-producing states in the union.


Haley, Pence point to experience to tackle economy

Haley, in her first remarks on stage, attacked her fellow Republicans for contributing to what she called runaway spending. She said that Pence, Scott and DeSantis all voted to increase the debt through various pieces of legislation.

"What I care about the fact is that no one is telling the American people the truth," Haley said. "The truth is that Biden didn’t do this to us, our Republicans did this to us, too."

She added, "I think it's time for an accountant in the White House."

Pence, in response to a question about how he supported major spending packages as vice president, pointed to his experience as proof he's ready to take on the top job.

"I must say you with all due respect to all of my friends on the stage, and even to one that’s probably looking on, I think unquestionably I am the best prepared, the most tested, the most qualified and proven conservative in this race," he said.


Fact-checking DeSantis’ claim: “We kept our state free and open”

DeSantis revels in his record of snubbing public health recommendations to curb the spread of COVID-19. But he largely omits the closures of schools and businesses that happened under his watch.

Seven states did not issue stay-at-home orders to their residents, but not Florida.

On April 1, 2020, DeSantis issued an executive order directing all Florida residents to "limit their movements and personal interactions outside of their home." The order expired April 30, 2020, and Florida began a phased reopening in May.

Though he carved out an exception for religious services and some recreational activities, DeSantis didn't exempt in-person classroom instruction. DeSantis' Department of Education issued a March 13 recommendation that Florida schools close their facilities for an extended spring break before lengthening the closure through the end of the school year in early June.

Schools reopened in person in August 2020.
-Aaron Sharockman, PolitiFact


How to evaluate the debate like a pro

In the aftermath of a debate, it can be hard to figure out the actual impact of a viral moment or heated exchange. Here are some data-driven approaches that can help cut through the noise:

First, ignore “instant polls” that ask questions only among people who watched the debate. That group is not likely to represent the feelings of the broader population. Instead, look for post-debate polls — (like ours with Ipsos and the Washington Post) — that ask questions among the same group of Americans both pre- and post-debate.

Second, in the days following the debate, look at data that captures attention to candidates, such as trends in search results or media coverage, to determine which candidate made the biggest splash. Media attention is crucial for candidates who aren’t well known to gain traction in the polls and with donors.

Finally, look for changes in horse-race polls in the week or two after the debate. There is a lot of noise in primary polls (especially this time around) and it can take some time for changes in public opinion to be reflected in our polling average.

The big thing to remember is that what’s important to journalists and television pundits may not be what’s important to the public, and we have to wait for pollsters to ask them how they feel.

-Analysis by G. Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight