Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more
The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.
The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.
Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.
ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.
Read deeper:
Ramaswamy introduces himself
Ramaswamy taking a minute to introduce himself shows how he's still a semi-unknown quantity. But he got big applause from the crowd.
-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight
Ramaswamy’s “skinny guy with a funny last name” line is a direct reference to Obama’s famous line about being a “skinny guy with a funny name” in his 2004 speech at the Democratic National Convention. Ramaswamy, of course, wouldn’t mind following Obama’s same path to the White House.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight
Burgum stands on the debate stage without crutches
As the debate got underway, Burgum was seen standing without his crutches on the presidential primary stage. Just one day ago, on Tuesday, the North Dakota governor tore his Achilles tendon and was seen just hours ago using crutches.
--ABC News' Kelsey Walsh
Christie just made an electability argument — that he was elected as a Republican in the blue state of New Jersey. (Specifically, he won the 2009 gubernatorial election by 4 percentage points a year after Obama won the state by 16.) The only problem is, only 25 percent of Republicans said the ability to beat Biden was one of the most important factors to their vote, according to a recent FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post/Ipsos poll.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight
How to evaluate the debate like a pro
In the aftermath of a debate, it can be hard to figure out the actual impact of a viral moment or heated exchange. Here are some data-driven approaches that can help cut through the noise:
First, ignore “instant polls” that ask questions only among people who watched the debate. That group is not likely to represent the feelings of the broader population. Instead, look for post-debate polls — (like ours with Ipsos and the Washington Post) — that ask questions among the same group of Americans both pre- and post-debate.
Second, in the days following the debate, look at data that captures attention to candidates, such as trends in search results or media coverage, to determine which candidate made the biggest splash. Media attention is crucial for candidates who aren’t well known to gain traction in the polls and with donors.
Finally, look for changes in horse-race polls in the week or two after the debate. There is a lot of noise in primary polls (especially this time around) and it can take some time for changes in public opinion to be reflected in our polling average.
The big thing to remember is that what’s important to journalists and television pundits may not be what’s important to the public, and we have to wait for pollsters to ask them how they feel.
-Analysis by G. Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight