Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more
The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.
The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.
Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.
ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.
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Mostly peaceful protests took place outside debate venue at start of night
A group of more than 100 anti-Republican protestors temporarily took to the street outside Fiserv Forum after the debate began.
The group was advocating on behalf of several causes championed by the left, carrying signs advocating for abortion rights, transgender rights, immigrant rights and Black Lives Matter, among other causes.
Some of the signs were more explicitly political in nature, directly targeting GOP candidates.
One protestor carried a sign reading “Down with DeSantis.”
The group cheered, whistled and chanted as they advanced down the street.
“Get up, get down, Milwaukee is a union town,” was one chant that could be heard.
The protestors were accompanied by legal observers.
The group walked down an open street and at one point briefly blocked traffic. The protestors were otherwise peaceful and dissipated soon after they began.
-ABC News’ Allison Pecorin and Olivia Osteen
The candidates didn't seem eager to talk about climate change
The candidates came to the debate prepared with answers about abortion – carefully considering their wording, and, in a stark departure from the first half hour, actually answering the moderators’ question on the issue.
One thing the candidates didn’t want to talk about? Climate change. The moderators asked the candidates to raise their hand if they believed human behavior was driving climate change — but that didn’t happen. Instead, DeSantis said he wanted to debate rather than answer a question like “school children.” Ramaswamy chimed in to say “the climate change agenda is a hoax,” drawing boos from the crowd, though it wasn’t clear what exactly they were booing. Christie jumped in to say that Ramaswamy sounded like both ChatGPT and Obama. Haley decided that this was the moment to quote Margaret Thatcher — “if you want something done ask a woman” — though she did answer that climate change was real, putting the onus on China. And Scott used the moment to chide the rest of the field for being “childish.”
— Analysis by Leah Askarinam of FiveThirtyEight
Christie on gun violence: 'Lock up these violent criminals'
Christie again focused on his record as New Jersey governor when asked about how he'd address shootings and gun violence plaguing the nation.
He accused prosecutors of not arresting violent criminals and said a "President Christie" would appoint attorney general to instruct U.S. attorney to do so.
"We have plenty of room in the federal prisons to lock up these violent criminals and clean up what's going on all across this country and these individuals," Christie said.
Fact-checking Pence on public support for a 15-week abortion ban
During the abortion back-and-forth, Pence claimed that 70 percent of Americans support a 15-week abortion ban. He’s cherry picking the results from one poll.
A 2022 survey from the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and The Harris Poll asked respondents, "Do you think your state should allow abortion…?”
Twenty-three percent said up to 15 weeks, 12 percent said up to six weeks and 37 percent said only in cases of rape and incest. That’s 72 percent all together. But answers in surveys vary greatly depending on how the question is asked.
A 2022 Economist/YouGov poll asked specifically about a 15-week ban — 39 percent supported it, 46 percent opposed it. A 2023 PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll asked respondents whether abortion should be allowed up until 24 weeks — 44 percent said yes.
-Aaron Sharockman, PolitiFact
How tonight’s debate participants qualified
Recent initial primary debates have involved a lot of candidates — 17 for Republicans in 2016 and 20 for Democrats in 2020 — across two debates, either on the same night or across two evenings. To lead off the 2024 cycle, Republicans will have a more intimate affair, with eight contenders taking the stage tonight. That number could’ve been slightly larger, however, as nine GOP candidates met the RNC’s debate qualification criteria for polls and donors. But Trump isn’t participating, having refused to sign a mandated loyalty pledge promising to support the eventual GOP nominee in the general election, so there will be only eight lecterns on stage.
Eligible participants either earned 1 percent support in three national polls or at least 1 percent in two national polls and two polls from the first four states voting in the GOP primary (each coming from separate states), based on surveys that meet certain criteria for inclusion. They also attracted donations from at least 40,000 unique contributors, with at least 200 donors from 20 or more states and/or territories.
Meeting these criteria was straightforward for most of the candidates, as by the end of July, seven (including Trump) had enough qualifying polls and donors to make the stage. Lagging behind, Pence became the eighth eligible contender when his campaign announced on Aug. 7 that he brought in enough unique donors. Hutchinson had enough surveys in hand by late July, but he only announced on Sunday that he had reached the 40,000 donor mark, coming in just under the deadline.
But there was last-minute drama, as businessman Perry Johnson and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez each said they had qualified, only for the RNC to leave them off its final list of participants. Johnson in particular may have a bone to pick, as he claimed that the RNC initially indicated that he had enough polls, and our analysis suggests he did, too. Larry Elder, who along with Johnson hasn’t met FiveThirtyEight’s criteria for being considered a major candidate, also claimed he had made it,> but one of the polls he cited did not have a large enough sample size to meet the RNC’s criteria. Johnson and Elder announced yesterday that they were suing the RNC. Suarez, Johnson, Elder and Hurd all had enough donors to make the stage but, controversially or not, lacked the polls in the end.
-Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight