Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


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Pence attacks DeSantis for not supporting a national abortion ban

DeSantis wouldn’t directly answer when the moderators asked him if he would sign a national abortion ban, and Pence pounced. He comes from the social conservative wing of the party, and supports a national ban. This isn’t the first time Pence has criticized DeSantis for not being conservative enough on abortion, either.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight


Haley reups calls for compassion on abortion

Haley reiterated her calls for "compassion" when the country debates abortion, though she declined to state whether she would support a federal ban on the procedure.

Haley noted the uphill climb to a federal ban, referencing the 60-vote filibuster in the Senate, but said she would oppose late-term abortions and punishments for women who receive abortions.

"Can't we all agree that we should ban late term abortions? Can't we all agree that we should encourage adoptions? Can't we all agree that doctors and nurses who don't believe in abortion shouldn't have to perform them? Can't we all agree that contraception should be available? And can't we all agree that we are not going to put a woman in jail or give her the death penalty if she gets an abortion? Let's treat this like the like the respectful issue that it is," she said.

-ABC News' Tal Axelrod


Abortion isn’t a top priority for Republicans

The candidates are now debating abortion, which has obviously been a hot-button issue lately, but it’s actually not super important to Republican primary voters right now. According to our FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, only 6 percent of Republicans identified limiting abortion as one of their top three issues.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight


In the commercial break we get an ad targeting pro-Ukraine Republicans from Defending Democracy Together, a PAC led by a group of anti-Trump conservatives who have been very active in politics since 2017. In a poll from the Pew Research Center in June 44 percent of Republicans said the US was giving too much aid to Ukraine. I'm not sure how much this ad is going to register; Ukraine and national defense barely register in polls of Americans' most important problem these days. I think it says more about the divide in the party over Trump — who hasn't been mentioned in the debate at all so far.
-Analysis by G Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight


How tonight’s debate participants qualified

Recent initial primary debates have involved a lot of candidates — 17 for Republicans in 2016 and 20 for Democrats in 2020 — across two debates, either on the same night or across two evenings. To lead off the 2024 cycle, Republicans will have a more intimate affair, with eight contenders taking the stage tonight. That number could’ve been slightly larger, however, as nine GOP candidates met the RNC’s debate qualification criteria for polls and donors. But Trump isn’t participating, having refused to sign a mandated loyalty pledge promising to support the eventual GOP nominee in the general election, so there will be only eight lecterns on stage.

Eligible participants either earned 1 percent support in three national polls or at least 1 percent in two national polls and two polls from the first four states voting in the GOP primary (each coming from separate states), based on surveys that meet certain criteria for inclusion. They also attracted donations from at least 40,000 unique contributors, with at least 200 donors from 20 or more states and/or territories.

Meeting these criteria was straightforward for most of the candidates, as by the end of July, seven (including Trump) had enough qualifying polls and donors to make the stage. Lagging behind, Pence became the eighth eligible contender when his campaign announced on Aug. 7 that he brought in enough unique donors. Hutchinson had enough surveys in hand by late July, but he only announced on Sunday that he had reached the 40,000 donor mark, coming in just under the deadline.

But there was last-minute drama, as businessman Perry Johnson and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez each said they had qualified, only for the RNC to leave them off its final list of participants. Johnson in particular may have a bone to pick, as he claimed that the RNC initially indicated that he had enough polls, and our analysis suggests he did, too. Larry Elder, who along with Johnson hasn’t met FiveThirtyEight’s criteria for being considered a major candidate, also claimed he had made it,> but one of the polls he cited did not have a large enough sample size to meet the RNC’s criteria. Johnson and Elder announced yesterday that they were suing the RNC. Suarez, Johnson, Elder and Hurd all had enough donors to make the stage but, controversially or not, lacked the polls in the end.

-Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight