Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


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DeSantis shuts down Fox attempt at hand raising

DeSantis quickly shut down a question from Fox News' Martha MaCallum asking candidates to raise their hands if they believe human behavior is causing climate change.

"Look, we’re not schoolchildren. Let's have the debate," DeSantis said.

He then largely declined to answer the question at hand, instead criticizing President Joe Biden's response to the Maui wildfires in Hawaii. (Biden's aides have pushed back on such criticism.)

"As somebody that has handled disasters in Florida, you have to be there present and helping people who are doing this," DeSantis said.


DeSantis criticizes Biden, points to his record on natural disasters

On the climate change question, DeSantis once again steered things toward one of the strengths of his record: handling natural disasters. Eighty percent of Republicans viewed his response to Hurricane Ian in 2022 favorably, and he got a boost in the polls after the hurricane hit, perhaps contributing to his 19-point victory in the 2022 gubernatorial race.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight


Haley tries to defuse barbs

Haley tried to defuse the flying attacks, including another round of barbs between Christie and Ramaswamy.

"This is exactly why Margaret Thatcher said if you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman," Haley said.


"If you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman," says Haley (quoting former U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher), chastising both Christie and Ramaswamy while drawing attention to the fact that she's the only woman up on stage tonight.
-Analysis by Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


How tonight’s debate participants qualified

Recent initial primary debates have involved a lot of candidates — 17 for Republicans in 2016 and 20 for Democrats in 2020 — across two debates, either on the same night or across two evenings. To lead off the 2024 cycle, Republicans will have a more intimate affair, with eight contenders taking the stage tonight. That number could’ve been slightly larger, however, as nine GOP candidates met the RNC’s debate qualification criteria for polls and donors. But Trump isn’t participating, having refused to sign a mandated loyalty pledge promising to support the eventual GOP nominee in the general election, so there will be only eight lecterns on stage.

Eligible participants either earned 1 percent support in three national polls or at least 1 percent in two national polls and two polls from the first four states voting in the GOP primary (each coming from separate states), based on surveys that meet certain criteria for inclusion. They also attracted donations from at least 40,000 unique contributors, with at least 200 donors from 20 or more states and/or territories.

Meeting these criteria was straightforward for most of the candidates, as by the end of July, seven (including Trump) had enough qualifying polls and donors to make the stage. Lagging behind, Pence became the eighth eligible contender when his campaign announced on Aug. 7 that he brought in enough unique donors. Hutchinson had enough surveys in hand by late July, but he only announced on Sunday that he had reached the 40,000 donor mark, coming in just under the deadline.

But there was last-minute drama, as businessman Perry Johnson and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez each said they had qualified, only for the RNC to leave them off its final list of participants. Johnson in particular may have a bone to pick, as he claimed that the RNC initially indicated that he had enough polls, and our analysis suggests he did, too. Larry Elder, who along with Johnson hasn’t met FiveThirtyEight’s criteria for being considered a major candidate, also claimed he had made it,> but one of the polls he cited did not have a large enough sample size to meet the RNC’s criteria. Johnson and Elder announced yesterday that they were suing the RNC. Suarez, Johnson, Elder and Hurd all had enough donors to make the stage but, controversially or not, lacked the polls in the end.

-Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight