Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more
The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.
The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.
Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.
ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.
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Tim Scott was just asked about government spending. In a March poll by AP-NORC, 88 percent of Republicans said that the federal government is spending too much. However, in the same survey, a majority of Republicans thought the government was spending too little on some key areas, including border security (85 percent), law enforcement (67 percent), infrastructure (61 percent), Social Security (57 percent), military (57 percent) and education (52 percent).
-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight
Consumer prices and inflation
I wrote about this earlier, but high consumer prices are probably the biggest way that Americans understand the economy. Biden's trying to make the case that overall the economy is on the upswing, and he has some data points to back him up. And there's not a lot the president can do about inflation. But voters have been sour on the economy since Biden took office. Fifty-three percent of Republican voters said getting prices under control was a top issue in a FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released today.
— Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight
DeSantis starts with a dig at 'Bidenomics'
"Our country is in decline," DeSantis said in response to the first debate question, on the economy. "This decline is not inevitable. It's a choice. We need to send Joe Biden back to his basement and reverse American decline."
DeSantis also took a swipe at the president's son Hunter, criticizing Hunter for selling high-priced artwork while other people are struggling to afford groceries.
"It starts with understanding we must reverse Bidenomics so that middle-class families have a chance to succeed again," DeSantis said, referring to the name that the White House has used to popularize what they see as the president's successful platform.
Hello from the debate spin room in Milwaukee
I am here in Milwaukee in the spin room. If you think journalism is glamorous, let me disabuse you of that notion. The media is being housed in what is essentially a parking garage at the FiservForum and the bathrooms are outside porta-potties. By the way, it was a 100-degree day in Milwaukee, so just going to the bathroom is a bit of an experience. And yes, I would like some Wisconsin cheese with my whine. Anyway, I'll be quiet about the plight of the reporters, we are here to hear about the plight of Americans and what these candidates have to say about it. Let's begin!
–Analysis from Galen Druke of FiveThirtyEight
How tonight’s debate participants qualified
Recent initial primary debates have involved a lot of candidates — 17 for Republicans in 2016 and 20 for Democrats in 2020 — across two debates, either on the same night or across two evenings. To lead off the 2024 cycle, Republicans will have a more intimate affair, with eight contenders taking the stage tonight. That number could’ve been slightly larger, however, as nine GOP candidates met the RNC’s debate qualification criteria for polls and donors. But Trump isn’t participating, having refused to sign a mandated loyalty pledge promising to support the eventual GOP nominee in the general election, so there will be only eight lecterns on stage.
Eligible participants either earned 1 percent support in three national polls or at least 1 percent in two national polls and two polls from the first four states voting in the GOP primary (each coming from separate states), based on surveys that meet certain criteria for inclusion. They also attracted donations from at least 40,000 unique contributors, with at least 200 donors from 20 or more states and/or territories.
Meeting these criteria was straightforward for most of the candidates, as by the end of July, seven (including Trump) had enough qualifying polls and donors to make the stage. Lagging behind, Pence became the eighth eligible contender when his campaign announced on Aug. 7 that he brought in enough unique donors. Hutchinson had enough surveys in hand by late July, but he only announced on Sunday that he had reached the 40,000 donor mark, coming in just under the deadline.
But there was last-minute drama, as businessman Perry Johnson and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez each said they had qualified, only for the RNC to leave them off its final list of participants. Johnson in particular may have a bone to pick, as he claimed that the RNC initially indicated that he had enough polls, and our analysis suggests he did, too. Larry Elder, who along with Johnson hasn’t met FiveThirtyEight’s criteria for being considered a major candidate, also claimed he had made it,> but one of the polls he cited did not have a large enough sample size to meet the RNC’s criteria. Johnson and Elder announced yesterday that they were suing the RNC. Suarez, Johnson, Elder and Hurd all had enough donors to make the stage but, controversially or not, lacked the polls in the end.
-Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight