Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


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Ramaswamy was relatively unknown before tonight

Adding onto Nathaniel's Google search comment ... debates can serve as a great introduction to some of the lesser-known candidates. Ramaswamy is probably tonight’s big winner in making a name for himself: 59 percent of voters had no opinion or had never heard of Ramaswamy before tonight, according to a favorability question in our pre-debate FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post/Ipsos poll. That’s likely changed after all of the talking he’s done on stage — and we’ll be tracking whether that’s a good or bad thing. Check back in at FiveThirtyEight tomorrow afternoon for our post-debate analysis.
-Analysis by Holly Fuong of FiveThirtyEight


Pence pressed on Biden's age, presidential fitness tests

Pence was pressed by moderators if presidents should have to pass a mental and physical test to serve, invoking President Joe Biden's age.

Pence, who is 64, initially joked that "it might be a good idea to have everybody in Washington" pass one.

He then took a serious tone, saying, "No, the American people can make those judgments."

He appeared to take a swipe at Ramaswamy, the youngest candidate on stage, stating the nation doesn't need a president who is too young either.

-ABC News' Alexandra Hutzler


Anyone surprised by how little Trump has come up tonight?

In the front-runner's absence, many of us here at FiveThirtyEight suspected (in part because of some leaked debate memos) that the former president would loom large over the proceedings, with candidates taking shots at him whenever possible. That hasn't really happened tonight, though! What do you make of it?

-Analysis by Maya Sweedler of FiveThirtyEight


Ramaswamy leads in Google searches during the debate

Ramaswamy has been far and away the most Googled candidate during the debate tonight. He’s received three times as much search interest as DeSantis or Haley. Now, I’m not sure what that means for his chances — Google searches aren’t votes, and people might just be curious to learn more about him. But I think it does reflect that he has been the story of this debate so far. Whether that’s a good story for him or a bad story is still TBD.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight


Voters remain dissatisfied with the economy

Why are voters so dissatisfied with Biden’s economy?

That’s one of the questions that will shape the 2024 race as Republicans gear up to select a presidential challenger. Right now, only 36 percent of American adults approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, according to an AP-NORC poll from Aug. 10-14. Similarly, a Fox News poll from Aug. 11-14 found that only a quarter of American voters say Biden’s policies have made the economy better. Some of this is affected by partisanship: A large majority of Republicans disapprove of his handling of the economy, but Democrats aren’t over the moon either, with only about two-thirds approving, according to the AP poll.

It’s tempting to think this is all a hangover from last summer’s doldrums, when inflation peaked at 9.1 percent last June. Consumer prices might be the most obvious way that everyday Americans interact with the economy. Inflation today is still 3.2 percent higher compared to this time last year, which means prices are still above what they were before the pandemic.

The fact that the job market remains strong, with unemployment at historic lows and wages rising, hardly makes an impact when people feel like they’re spending more every time they go to the grocery store and are struggling to pay down debts amid high interest rates. But the truth is, Americans’ view of the economy overall was low when Biden took office during the wobbly beginnings of the COVID-19 recovery, and has never risen above 50 percent.

What do people want from federal policy? They support measures such as taxing the wealthy and corporations more — more than three-quarters of all Americans approve, including 90 percent of Democrats and 63 percent of Republicans, according to an Ipsos/Reuters poll. As it happens, that policy is part of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, his signature inflation-fighting legislative win, but less than half of Americans say they know about the bill.
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Biden is working to promote the Inflation Reduction Act and other legislative accomplishments as part of “Bidenomics,” but the fact that there’s a gap between what Biden is doing about the economy and how people feel about it leaves plenty of room for Republican attacks. Indeed, DeSantis has promised to roll back Biden’s economic policies. And the polling so far suggests that, even if the economy improves even more in the next year, Biden might not get credit for it.

-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight