Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


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Fox aired a Biden-Harris campaign ad ahead of debate

The Biden-Harris campaign appeared to buy airtime on Fox News ahead of the GOP primary debate, with ad advertisement for the Democrats’ reelection campaign running just minutes before the eight Republican hopefuls took the stage.

The ad, which acted as something of counter-programing to what the GOP hopefuls may discuss during the two-hour debate, touted what the Biden administration sees as its legislative accomplishments, like the American Rescue Plan, the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS and Science Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.

The spot highlighted the economy under Biden, which is likely contrary to what the Republican primary candidates will raise on stage -- citing Biden's low marks from voters on his handling of economic issues.

–ABC News’ Isabella Murray


What FiveThirtyEight is watching for tonight: Christie and Scott

I’m monitoring Christie and Scott tonight. Even though the two candidates are polling similarly in the 3 to 4 percent range in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, they are a subject in contrasts. Although Pence has been more vocally critical of Trump recently, Christie is the most high-profile, full-on anti-Trump candidate on stage. Realistically, Christie has very little chance at the GOP nomination because he has negative net favorability ratings among Republicans. But that may mean he will focus almost entirely tonight on attacking Trump rather than making appeals to the party base. As a result, Christie could be a popular foil for the contenders on stage who have largely eschewed going after Trump, or have even defended him.

Meanwhile, Scott arguably has one of the highest ceilings of any candidate on stage. He’s not nearly as well-known to GOP voters as Trump or DeSantis, but Scott gets rave reviews from Republicans who are familiar with him. That means tonight is an opportunity for him to expand his reach and also potentially increase the share of GOP primary voters who would consider voting for him. I’ll be interested to see how much he leans into his “happy warrior” image as a means of differentiating himself from DeSantis and Ramaswamy, and whether he tries to rise above the fray to some extent if some of the other candidates — especially Christie — get into verbal fisticuffs.

–Analysis from Geoffrey Skelley


What FiveThirtyEight is watching for tonight: Ramaswamy

I’ll be watching Ramaswamy tonight, who will be center stage next to DeSantis, a position I did not foresee for the biotech entrepreneur when he first jumped into the race in February. But Ramswamy is on an upswing, soaring from a virtual unknown to garnering nearly 10 percent in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average. Without Trump on the stage and with DeSantis’s polling average trending downward, is it Ramaswamy’s moment to own it?

Ramaswamy has staked his candidacy on an anti-woke, pro-capitalist message, promising to guide the country at a revolutionary moment by recognizing 10 simple truths. He’s a 38-year-old millennial leaning into the culture wars from the right who often seems to say exactly what pops into his head. This style has so far made him a major candidate. We’ll see tonight whether it appeals to voters. Thirty percent of likely Republican primary voters view him favorably, according to a FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released today, and only 10 percent view him unfavorably. That leaves a huge chunk of voters in the middle who say they don’t know much about him and who may be seeing him speak at length for the first time during the debate. How he performs — whether it involves quoting Eminem or not — could leave a lasting impression. And a newcomer without political experience coming out of nowhere to win the Republican nomination? It’s something we’ve seen before.

–Analysis from Monica Potts


What FiveThirtyEight is watching for tonight: Burgum and Haley

I’m tracking Burgum and Haley tonight. In another universe, the two might be top-tier contenders — a billionaire two-term governor from the heartland with great hair, and a trailblazing former governor and U.N. Ambassador long seen as a rising star in the GOP — but neither have made much of an impact on the race so far. Haley had a brief moment of prominence in February, when she was the first non-Trump candidate to jump in the race, but has since polled consistently in the low single digits. Haley will be the only woman on stage, and she may try to play to her strengths by drawing sharp foreign policy contrasts with higher-polling contenders like DeSantis and Ramaswamy (who she went after over Israel policy this week). Most of the attention Burgum has received surrounds his innovative tactic of paying people to donate to his campaign. The North Dakotan has been polling marginally better in Iowa and New Hampshire, where he’s spent millions on TV ads. If he makes it to this debate — he was in the emergency room earlier due to a basketball-related injury — his task will be to tell voters who he is, since he’s one of the least-known people on the stage, and maybe sell his Trump-free economic argument.

–Analysis from Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Voters remain dissatisfied with the economy

Why are voters so dissatisfied with Biden’s economy?

That’s one of the questions that will shape the 2024 race as Republicans gear up to select a presidential challenger. Right now, only 36 percent of American adults approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, according to an AP-NORC poll from Aug. 10-14. Similarly, a Fox News poll from Aug. 11-14 found that only a quarter of American voters say Biden’s policies have made the economy better. Some of this is affected by partisanship: A large majority of Republicans disapprove of his handling of the economy, but Democrats aren’t over the moon either, with only about two-thirds approving, according to the AP poll.

It’s tempting to think this is all a hangover from last summer’s doldrums, when inflation peaked at 9.1 percent last June. Consumer prices might be the most obvious way that everyday Americans interact with the economy. Inflation today is still 3.2 percent higher compared to this time last year, which means prices are still above what they were before the pandemic.

The fact that the job market remains strong, with unemployment at historic lows and wages rising, hardly makes an impact when people feel like they’re spending more every time they go to the grocery store and are struggling to pay down debts amid high interest rates. But the truth is, Americans’ view of the economy overall was low when Biden took office during the wobbly beginnings of the COVID-19 recovery, and has never risen above 50 percent.

What do people want from federal policy? They support measures such as taxing the wealthy and corporations more — more than three-quarters of all Americans approve, including 90 percent of Democrats and 63 percent of Republicans, according to an Ipsos/Reuters poll. As it happens, that policy is part of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, his signature inflation-fighting legislative win, but less than half of Americans say they know about the bill.
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Biden is working to promote the Inflation Reduction Act and other legislative accomplishments as part of “Bidenomics,” but the fact that there’s a gap between what Biden is doing about the economy and how people feel about it leaves plenty of room for Republican attacks. Indeed, DeSantis has promised to roll back Biden’s economic policies. And the polling so far suggests that, even if the economy improves even more in the next year, Biden might not get credit for it.

-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight