Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


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Larry Elder, Perry Johnson contend they are not going down without a fight

They didn’t qualify for the debate stage. Now, they’re vowing to take legal action.

Holding his own press conference outside the debate venue earlier Wednesday, Elder said he would file a formal complaint with the Federal Election Commission if wasn’t allowed on stage -- which he later followed through on.

ABC asked him if he still plans on watching or attending the debate if they don't respond, to which he said: "I'll be there, one way or the other, but I'm going to be up on that stage, trust me. If I were a betting person, and I'm not, I would bet the forum that Larry Elder is going to be on that debate stage.”

Johnson is planning to file two lawsuits against the GOP, he said in an interview with ABC News Radio National Correspondent Steven Portnoy.

Ahead of the debate, Johnson’s team was spotted across the street from the Fiserv Forum wearing "Perry vs Everybody" shirts.

On Tuesday, McDaniel told ABC News Senior Congressional Correspondent Rachel Scott that the party was not trying to spite candidates who did not reach their requirements.

“They’ve got time for other debates and they can still continue to work towards California in September,” McDaniel said. “This has nothing to do with them. We just stuck to our rules.”

-ABC News' Kendall Ross, Gabriella Abdul-Hakim and Isabella Murray


Burgum will debate, already fundraising off injury

Burgum’s debate appearance was in doubt after he suffered an injury while playing pick-up basketball with his staff.

Just hours before the start time, he announced he’ll be on stage after all.

His team is already fundraising off the incident, selling T-shirts with a silhouette of a cowboy hat-clad Burgum playing basketball -- a twist on the famous Nike Air Jordan "Jumpman" logo.

Earlier in the day, the governor was visibly emotional as he discussed the pain he was feeling with ABC News.

"I'm someone who's never taken prescription pain meds and I'm not doing that today. Even though people said that'd be a good idea. Because I’d rather … I mean so many Americans make so many sacrifices, think law enforcement, think of military, what they do for all of us," he said.

"I mean, if you're gonna lead this country, you got to be able to stand on one leg for two hours. You know, it's not, it's not 'Dancing with the Stars.'"

-ABC News' Alexandra Hutzler and Oren Oppenheim


Check in on our polling average

As you watch the debate, keep an eye on which candidates separate themselves from the crowd. That’s because right now, the Republican presidential primary is not so much a race for first place as it is for second and third. FiveThirtyEight’s latest average of national GOP primary polls has Trump at 52 percent of the vote among likely Republican primary voters. DeSantis is a distant second at 15 percent, Ramaswamy is at 10 percent, Pence and Scott are at 4 percent, and Haley and Christie are at 3 percent. Everyone else is below 1 percent.

Trump’s lead will be very hard for the other candidates to close — so their best hope at this point is to stay in the game, in case Trump drops out (unlikely as that seems right now) or something else changes. DeSantis is currently in position to be the would-be front-runner if Trump drops out, but depending on debate performances and other factors, he could wind up in a close race with one of the other candidates currently clustered in that 5-10 percent range.

-Analysis by G. Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight


For now, Trump not planning to attend 2nd GOP debate: Senior campaign adviser

Chris LaCivita, a senior campaign adviser to Trump, said on the conservative “Ruthless” podcast streamed live before the debate that Trump does not currently plan to attend the second GOP debate, set for next month in California, but indicated that Trump could change his mind.

"He's not going to be in California ... Well, first of all, with President Trump, you know, he could change his mind at any moment … And you should just assume that he won't until he does,” LaCivita said.

Both fellow primary candidates and GOP officials have urged Trump to be on the debate stage, although some candidates have downplayed the significance of his absence.

-ABC News’ Laura Gersony


Welcome

The 2024 presidential election has been underway for months, but with tonight’s first Republican primary debate in Milwaukee, we’re kicking off a new phase of the campaign. In these final five months before voting begins, we’re going to have monthly debates, dashes through Iowa, big-money fundraisers — and probably a culling of the field.

Tonight’s debate will feature eight candidates. Front-runner Donald Trump, who has a 37-percentage-point lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, will not be among them, as he has opted to skip the debate. Instead, we will hear from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis; entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy; former Vice President Mike Pence; Sen. Tim Scott; former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley; former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson; North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum; and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

There are a few threads and tensions we’re going to be watching tonight. First, in the absence of Trump, will his challengers’ attempts to position themselves as a more favorable option fall flat? How will candidates make their case for being a better alternative to Trump without having the contrast on stage beside them? Secondly, what sort of friction will we see between the anti-Trump candidates and those running on more similar ideas or rhetoric?

We’ll keep an eye on all this and more. You’ll be hearing from the crew at FiveThirtyEight and ABC News — as well as some new friends at PolitiFact — throughout the night. The Fox News-hosted debate begins at 9 p.m. Eastern, and we have some colleagues on the ground in Milwaukee who will ensure you’re going in with everything you need to know.

Thanks for joining us. Stay tuned as we update the blog with real-time analysis, charts, thoughts, questions, ideas, idle fancies and more. Leading up until the debate starts, we’ll run through the state of the race so far. Once the debate starts, we’ll make sure we’re addressing everything happening on stage, including what issues the candidates talk about, who they attack, how they position themselves and what Americans think.

-Analysis by Maya Sweedler of FiveThirtyEight