I was watching DeSantis tonight, and overall I think he did well. Despite perhaps underestimating the strength of his mic (he came across several times like he was yelling), DeSantis came across as confident and didn’t have any of the awkward moments that have gotten him bad attention on the campaign trail. In terms of substance, he turned the conversation toward issue areas that play to his strengths, like COVID-19, wokeness in education and natural disaster leadership.

That said, according to our FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, Republicans already had pretty high expectations for DeSantis in this debate, so maybe his good performance won’t change their priors. (We’ll have to wait for the second wave of our poll to know for sure!) Really what I’m watching for after this debate is what happens to Ramaswamy. Like I wrote earlier, I think he’s the main story of this debate, but I don’t think I have a good handle on whether his performance will be received well or poorly.

-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight

I think Geoffrey has this exactly right: It seemed a little like the candidates were playing pretend tonight by ignoring Trump. But they’re in a tough position, politically. Someone needs to go after Trump in order to open up space for another potential nominee, but going after Trump is also extremely unattractive to GOP voters. That combination keeps Trump in a strong position as the front-runner.

At this point, the question isn’t who will be the alternative to Trump, but whether Republicans will produce an alternative nominee to Trump at all. DeSantis needed to prove tonight that he could live up to the initial hype around him, that he was Republicans’ clear alternative to nominating Trump. But there didn’t seem to be a breakout moment for him. A handful of others — like Haley and Pence — had some strong moments, but we’ll have to wait for polling to see whether those actually resonated with voters. Otherwise, it’s more of the same – which is good news for Trump.

-Analysis by Leah Askarinam of FiveThirtyEight

It's not too surprising to me that Trump didn't come up much tonight except when explicitly pushed by the moderators. A lot of Republicans -- certainly GOP officeholders -- really don't like talking about Trump and never have. Tonight they were given the opportunity to pretend like Trump isn't in the race or the defining story of the election, and of course they took advantage of it. I bet it felt like a relief, even if it wasn't really moored in reality.
-Analysis by Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

For the less-known candidates, debates are a crucial task to introduce themselves (in a positive light!) to the American people. The Google results posted here indicate that Ramaswamy made a big splash today (though I'm not sure how positive the reception will be). He and Scott currently have the strongest net favorable numbers among the GOP candidates. I don't think we heard enough from the latter candidate for his numbers to meaningfully change.

-Analysis by G Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight

The 2024 presidential election has been underway for months, but with tonight’s first Republican primary debate in Milwaukee, we’re kicking off a new phase of the campaign. In these final five months before voting begins, we’re going to have monthly debates, dashes through Iowa, big-money fundraisers — and probably a culling of the field.

Tonight’s debate will feature eight candidates. Front-runner Donald Trump, who has a 37-percentage-point lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, will not be among them, as he has opted to skip the debate. Instead, we will hear from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis; entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy; former Vice President Mike Pence; Sen. Tim Scott; former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley; former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson; North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum; and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

There are a few threads and tensions we’re going to be watching tonight. First, in the absence of Trump, will his challengers’ attempts to position themselves as a more favorable option fall flat? How will candidates make their case for being a better alternative to Trump without having the contrast on stage beside them? Secondly, what sort of friction will we see between the anti-Trump candidates and those running on more similar ideas or rhetoric?

We’ll keep an eye on all this and more. You’ll be hearing from the crew at FiveThirtyEight and ABC News — as well as some new friends at PolitiFact — throughout the night. The Fox News-hosted debate begins at 9 p.m. Eastern, and we have some colleagues on the ground in Milwaukee who will ensure you’re going in with everything you need to know.

Thanks for joining us. Stay tuned as we update the blog with real-time analysis, charts, thoughts, questions, ideas, idle fancies and more. Leading up until the debate starts, we’ll run through the state of the race so far. Once the debate starts, we’ll make sure we’re addressing everything happening on stage, including what issues the candidates talk about, who they attack, how they position themselves and what Americans think.

-Analysis by Maya Sweedler of FiveThirtyEight